The Last Frontier’s Senator might be trading DC for Juneau
It might have been an off-handed comment in response to a reporter’s question, but late last week Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) confirmed that she is “considering” entering the open Alaska Governor’s race next year.
Almost simultaneously, a Data for Progress survey from July was publicly released (7/21-27; 678 AK likely jungle primary voters; text from an online sample pool) and it finds former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leading businesswoman and former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson (R) and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 40-11-10% in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary poll.
Most believe the Governor’s race would dramatically change if Sen. Murkowski were to enter, though she was not added to the DfP ballot test. For her part, Ms. Peltola, who was defeated for re-election in November but still maintains positive name identification, has yet to officially enter the Governor’s race though recent comments lead most observers to believe that she will run.
Sen. Murkowski entering the Governor’s race would certainly change the budding campaign’s trajectory. The Republican candidates appear weak, at least in the early phase, and adding Sen. Murkowski to the candidate list would certainly make a more interesting contest. Yet, would she overtake Ms. Peltola?
According to the Data for Progress poll, Sen. Murkowski is not popular at the present time and certainly not with Republican voters. DfP tested 13 well known Alaska political figures and Sen. Murkowski posted a 37:60% favorable to unfavorable image, the worst among all who were included. It is important to note, however, that only four of the 13 tested individuals scored in positive numbers (Ms. Peltola, President Trump, former state Senator Tom Begich, and Ms. Wilson), and only Ms. Peltola had a positive rating of more than +5 percentage points.
Examining the poll’s crosstabs, we see in terms of partisan support that Sen. Murkowski performs better among Democrats than she does with Independents and her own Republican Party voters. Within the Democratic cell segment, her favorability index is 61:35% favorable to unfavorable. This compares with a 38:59% ratio among self-identified Independent survey respondents and a terrible 23:74% among Republicans.
Despite her poor ratings, the unique Alaska election system plays to Sen. Murkowski’s favor. A 2020 ballot initiative that the Murkowski forces supported created a Top Four jungle primary system that adds Ranked Choice Voting rounds if no one receives majority support on the initial vote. The measure was adopted with 50.5% of the statewide vote.
In 2024, the Top Four system opponents qualified a ballot initiative to return to the previous partisan primary system. The Top Four survived with a bare 50.1% of the vote.
Sen. Murkowski is the chief beneficiary of the Alaska system because she no longer must win renomination in a Republican primary. Therefore, if she were to enter an open Governor’s election Murkowski would again easily capture one of the four available positions for advancement into the general election. Once in the November campaign, her ability to win general elections would again come to the forefront.
In her career after her father, then-Governor and former US Senator Frank Murkowski (R), appointed her to the Senate in 2002, Lisa Murkowski has only averaged 46.6% of the vote in winning largely plurality elections mostly because Alaska typically features many Independent and minor party candidates in its elections.
The Murkowski average includes the 53.7% she received in 2022, but that higher percentage came through three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting. Her initial 2022 percentage prior to advancing into the RCV rounds was 43.4%. Therefore, her four-election average without the Ranked Choice system would be 44.0 percent. In 2010, she was upset in the Republican primary but won the general election as a write-in Independent candidate with only 39.7% of the vote but topping both a Republican and Democratic nominee.
The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate an Alaska partisan lean of 52.8R – 41.8D. President Trump slightly exceeded the aggregate partisan lean in all three of his elections (54.5 – 41.4% over Kamala Harris; 53.1 – 43.0% opposite President Biden; and 51.3 – 36.6% against Hillary Clinton), while Sen. Murkowski typically runs significantly below the Republican benchmark.
Soon we will see if the Senator’s comment about “considering” the Governor’s race will prove more than a flippant response. If so, then the open Alaska Governor’s campaign will certainly become more interesting.
