Incumbent and progressive Democrat factions duke it out in the Tar Heel State
Two-term North Carolina US Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) is in a major fight as she and her opponent engage in political combat during the final campaign days prior to the March 3 primary.
In 2022, Ms. Foushee, then a state Senator, defeated Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam by nine percentage points to win a contested eight-person Democratic primary. Ms. Foushee would then go onto record an easy general election win in a 4th Congressional District designed to elect a Democrat. In 2022, the seat was open because veteran US Rep. David Price (D) retired from elective politics.
Rep. Foushee had an easy first re-election run in 2024, but this year’s Democratic primary has turned hot. Ms. Allam, still a member of the Durham County Commission, returns to challenge Rep. Foushee and though her own campaign has not been flush with campaign cash, several outside groups are spending a combined $1 million to promote Ms. Allam for the purpose of unseating Rep. Foushee.
About half of the independent money comes from a pro-Palestinian group entitled “American Priorities.” In 2022, Ms. Foushee received strong backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), though so far not to the same degree in this campaign. The American Priorities’ objective is to serve as a counter to AIPAC.
The second major pro-Allam group, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, is the “Leaders We Deserve” organization that deposed Democratic National Committee officer David Hogg founded. This group is active, and will be active, in Democratic primaries with the goal of dislodging Democratic incumbents they view as being part of the political establishment. Combined, the organizations give Ms. Allam a 3:1 advantage in outside spending.
Some of the funding coming to help Rep. Foushee is from AI and cryptocurrency interests, but they will have to step up their spending in the last week to propel the incumbent closer to an even footing with the challenger in terms of persuasion expenditures.
A major issue that Allam emphasizes is her opposition to the new AI data center being built in the city of Apex. Ms. Allam argues that the facility’s planned energy usage will increase rates relating to water and electricity utilities, and the types of permanent jobs created will be relatively few in number and not targeted to the local populace. Rep. Foushee, too, has voiced some concern over the plant but in the past has enjoyed strong support from AI interests. Therefore, Allam is attempting to create a clear contrast on this particular issue.
The 4th District of North Carolina lies to the west of the capital city of Raleigh, containing Durham and Orange counties and parts of Chatham and Wake counties. The major population centers are the cities of Durham, Chapel Hill, Apex and Hillsborough.
The seat is safely Democratic with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 73.0D – 24.8R, so winning the general election for either woman would not be in doubt. The 4th District has a 44.2% minority voting age population (VAP), with the dominant Black minority segment comprising 21.7% of the district’s VAP. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 4th CD with a 71.8 – 26.5% margin even though she lost the statewide vote.
The district has changed since the two women faced each other four years ago. Because of the 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan, 37% of the 4th District’s territory is different. The city of Apex, previously mentioned as being the host city for the controversial new data center, is part of the added constituency, which is another reason why Ms. Allam is making the plant a major campaign issue and a comparison focal point between she and Rep. Foushee.
As many as three Democratic US House incumbents, including Rep. Foushee, are in competitive races that could result in each losing his or her battle for renomination on March 3. The others are Texas US Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch).
Should Ms. Foushee and Rep. Green lose next week, the budding activism from some within the Democratic Party who are organizing to elect younger and more aggressive Representatives will get a major national boost. Rep. Johnson, should she lose, would be attributed solely to redistricting.
