NC Sen: Just a Few Counties

‘The 2026 Tar Heel Senate campaign will be one of turnout and not persuasion‘

To no one’s surprise, Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley has now officially announced his bid for North Carolina’s open US Senate seat.

He enters the race as likely the presumptive nominee from what should be a united Republican Party. Mr. Whatley has President Donald Trump’s support, a proven critical endorsement for any GOP candidate, along with the national party structure falling in behind his candidacy. He may have minor Republican primary opposition, but for all intents and purposes, we already see a general election pairing that will feature Mr. Whatley and Democratic former North Carolina Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper.

Last week, after keeping Democratic leaders in suspense for months, Mr. Cooper officially announced for the Senate. There was some belief that the former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General would enter the 2028 presidential contest, but now running for Senate next year effectively eliminates that possibility. 

North Carolina always hosts close statewide campaigns and is a place where either party can win. In 2024, for example, there were 11 statewide contests of which Republicans won six times and Democrats five. In only five of the 11 races did the winning candidate break the 52% threshold, and two produced a plurality winner.

Additionally, a key pattern emerges in the state’s close top of the ticket races. Of North Carolina’s 100 counties, there are only six that have swung between the two parties in the most recent elections, meaning 94 counties voted for the same party in all currently studied elections.

In fact, in the Trump elections in 2020 and 2024, the swing was only one county. In the 2022 open Senate election where then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley (D), the counties that Ms. Beasley carried (21) were exactly the same as Kamala Harris’ contingent.

Therefore, despite millions of dollars being spent in North Carolina statewide elections, there is little persuasion that successfully occurs. Thus, NC voting history tells us that the 2026 Tar Heel Senate campaign will be one of turnout and not persuasion. Whichever party more successfully gets their voters to the polls will win the midterm races here, and in most other places.

Emerson College and Victory Insights both recently polled the electorate during the same time frame. And, as we have seen in the past when different firms are surveying simultaneously, the two polls can produce significantly different numbers.

Emerson College (7/28-30; 1,000 NC registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Mr. Cooper leading Mr. Whatley, 47-41 percent. Victory Insights (728-30; 600 NC likely voters), however, sees the two already falling within the polling margin of error as Cooper leads 43-40%. If Whatley is under-polling as some other NC Republicans have, then the race, at least according to the VI result, is already in the dead heat realm which is where this campaign will most likely languish all the way through election day.

On the national Democratic side, the big presidential winner from the Cooper Senate decision is Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear who has clearly been preparing for a 2028 run. 

Without Cooper in the race, Beshear has the opportunity of uniting the southern states behind his effort as a regional candidate. Doing so, and most of the southern states vote early as part of the March Super Tuesday primary day, he would become a major, and possibly the leading, candidate, at least in terms of pledged delegate votes after the critical early states hold their primaries. 

In a way, the Senate Republicans actually score a positive point with the Cooper decision, too. The North Carolinian’s decision to run for the Senate and not President virtually ensures that Gov. Beshear will do the opposite, meaning any Democratic hope of him entering the open Kentucky Senate race next year has vanished. 

Realistically, Gov. Beshear is the only Democrat who could make the open Senate race competitive, and possibly win, so him instead running for President virtually assures that the eventual GOP nominee will be able to keep retiring Senator Mitch McConnell’s seat in the Republican column.