Primary clashes set stage for competitive midterm fight
Two more states are holding their regular primary elections today: the Cornhusker State of Nebraska and the Mountain State of West Virginia.
Nebraska
Several Nebraska races are of note today, but none more unique than the US Senate Democratic primary.
As we saw in 2024, Independent Dan Osborn emerged as the de facto Democratic challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) with the party’s official support. This year, he returns to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who is on the ballot seeking his first full six-year term.
Mr. Ricketts, the state’s former Governor, was appointed in 2023 to replace resigned Sen. Ben Sasse (R). He was then elected in 2024 with 62 percent of the vote to serve the remaining two years of the current term.
The Democratic primary is the race to watch tonight. Two candidates are on the ballot, and the eventual nominee could ultimately withdraw from the race.
Democratic activist Cindy Burbank previously stated that she supports Dan Osborn and would withdraw from the race and endorse him if she became the Democratic nominee. The Secretary of State subsequently disqualified her candidacy, citing a Nebraska law requiring candidates to sign an oath affirming that they will assume office if elected. Burbank challenged the decision in court, and a judge later reinstated her candidacy.
The other Democratic candidate is pastor Bill Forbes, who says he supports Sen. Ricketts. So, it is likely that he would remain on the ballot should he win the party nomination in order to draw some Democratic votes away from Mr. Osborn.
Neither Democratic primary candidate has raised significant funds. According to the March 31st Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Ms. Burbank had raised just $4,296 for her campaign, while Pastor Forbes reported only $1,000.
All of this points toward a general election featuring Sen. Pete Ricketts and Independent Dan Osborn. The race is expected to become expensive, but the Senator remains the clear favorite to win comfortably, regardless of what early polling may suggest.
Gov. Jim Pillen is seeking a second term and faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding a two-way primary, with former state Sen. Lynne Walz, a cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), expected to win the party’s nomination tonight. Gov. Pillen is favored for re-election.
Two of the state’s three congressional incumbents are seeking re-election. Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) is unopposed for renomination and will likely face former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Chris Backemeyer, who is expected to emerge from tonight’s Democratic primary. With a partisan lean of 56.7R – 40.4D, according to Dave’s Redistricting App, Rep. Flood should face little difficulty in the general election.
Third District veteran U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Gering) sees only minor opposition in tonight’s Republican primary. He represents Nebraska’s safest Republican congressional district, with a partisan lean of 75.2 – 22.8D according to Dave’s Redistricting App. NE-3 is a sprawling district that stretches across the state from the Wyoming and Colorado borders to the Iowa and Missouri lines.
The state’s key general election battle will take place in the Omaha anchored 2nd Congressional District, where five-term U.S. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) is retiring. The district’s electorate has twice voted against President Trump, supporting Kamala Harris 52-47% in 2024 and Joe Biden with a 52-46% margin in 2020.
The 2nd District is considered one of Democrats’ top conversion opportunities in the country. Republicans will formally nominate Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding tonight, as he runs unopposed for the party’s nomination.
The Democratic field is crowded, with six candidates competing for the nomination. The contest is largely centered on state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father served in the U.S. House in the 1970s, political consultant and Democratic activist Denise Powell, and former U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Deputy Assistant Secretary Kishla Askins.
West Virginia
A quiet primary night is expected in the Mountain State. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is seeking a third term and, although she faces five Republican challengers, the most notable being state Sen. Tom Willis (R-Berkeley), she is widely expected to secure renomination with ease. Sen. Capito is also a prohibitive favorite in the general election.
In the House, Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington) faces only a minor opponent in tonight’s primary. In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Riley Moore (R-Harpers Ferry) is unopposed for renomination. Both incumbents are considered strong favorites for re-election in November.
