Testing ground for both parties
Voters in northern New Jersey will go to the polls today to choose party nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who vacated this congressional district after winning her statewide election in November.
The real battle today is in the Democratic primary as 11 candidates are vying for the party nomination. The primary victor tonight will then likely claim the April 16 special general election.
Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski is viewed as at least a slight favorite to win tonight’s Democratic election, though he has been under attack from his opponents particularly for his stock market success while a member of Congress.
Mr. Malinowski was elected to the House in 2018 and won a close re-election over the district’s current Congressman, Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), in 2020. After redistricting, which made the 7th District a touch more Republican, Mr. Kean was able to unseat the two-term incumbent in 2022. Rep. Kean was then re-elected in 2024 and will face a tough fight again later this year.
In today’s 11th District special election, Mr. Malinowski’s chief opponents are Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, venture capitalist Zach Beecher, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, and former Lt. Governor Tahesha Way.
Mr. Malinowski is the top fundraiser within the group, bringing in just over $1.1 million according to the Federal Election Commission pre-primary filing covering the period through January 16th. Mr. Gill, however, is not far behind with over $800,000 raised. The remaining group has all attracted between $400-$500,000. Since little difference in ideology exists among the candidates, the Democratic primary will likely be an election day turnout battle because early voting has not previously been a major factor in New Jersey voting.
For the Republicans, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway is unopposed for the party nomination and will automatically advance into the mid-April special general election. For his part, Mr. Randolph has raised over $260,000, with just over $160,000 in his campaign treasury.
Depending upon tonight’s Democratic result, we will soon see whether the national Republican apparatus will spend significant money to boost Hathaway’s chances in the special general.
The 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield and Montclair.
According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6% margin over President Trump. Of New Jersey’s nine Democratic congressional districts, the 11th ranked as Ms. Harris’ sixth best performance against Mr. Trump. Statewide, her victory margin was 52.0 – 46.1%, so the 11th District exceeded her statewide showing by 1.3 percentage points.
The NJ-11 special will be the seventh such contest in House races since the current Congress began. Each party has held the seats it was risking, and the NJ-11 contest in April will very likely follow suit.
The next special election will occur in Georgia where the fight will be on the Republican side. The state’s 14th District, from which former US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) resigned in early January, is the Republican’s safest Peach State CD. This election will occur on March 10.
Under Georgia election law, all candidates are placed on a jungle primary ballot. If a candidate scores majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.
The 14th District’s partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D) is overwhelmingly Republican, so the GOP will hold the seat. With 21 filed candidates, however, going to a runoff election is a virtual certainty.
The contest to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) will be held under an identical format to the Georgia structure on June 2. If a runoff election is necessary in that race, such is scheduled for August 4.
