ELECTION RESULTS
Colorado Primary
What originally appeared as a virtual sure bet for Democratic US Senator Michael Bennet to be elected Governor turned to defeat Tuesday night, and the result wasn’t close. With pre-election polling trends running against 15-term Democratic US Representative Diana DeGette (D-Denver), she too became another incumbent loser.
For Senator Bennet, he will continue in his present position. Because his seat was not in-cycle this year – it next comes before the voters in 2028 – the loss does not cost the Senator his political career.
The Governor’s race should not be considered a Democratic Socialist win. While Attorney General Phil Weiser, who beat Sen. Bennet 56-44%, is certainly on the ideological left, he did not campaign as a socialist. Rather, he won this campaign by simply being the better candidate and very likely outworking Sen. Bennet who had to spend considerable campaign time in Washington doing his present job.
In Denver’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. DeGette suffered a 53-40% defeat at the hands of 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros. There are now seven House incumbents and two Senators who have been denied renomination. Now, added to these numbers, we have a sitting multi-term Senator running in an open Governor’s race who fails to claim his party’s nomination.
Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) was renominated in his campaign but did so with only a 55-45% margin against another Democratic Socialist candidate, state Sen. Julie Gonzalez, who he outspent by an 8:1 ratio.
In the 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) scored a lopsided 67-33% Republican primary victory over former state Representative Ron Hanks. The general election looks to be competitive as Rep. Hurd will face Real Estate company CEO Dwayne Romero who last night defeated venture capitalist Alex Kirloff even though the latter man had a huge spending advantage.
In what promises to be a very close 8th District general election, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) won the right to challenge freshman GOP Congressman Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Greeley). The Rutinel victory margin of 61-34% over former state Representative Shannon Bird was much more substantial than predicted. The 8th is arguably the nation’s most competitive congressional district.
SENATE
Alaska
After several published polls projected former at-large US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (6/15-29; 593 AK likely general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45% advantage in the Senator’s favor.
Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.
Iowa
Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.
Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; 6/23-27; 1,003 IA registered voters; live interview & online) sees Mr. Turek posting a 50-46% lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (6/15-27; 600 IA likely voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (6/16-19; 600 IA likely voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46% (Siena) and 46-44% (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.
Maine
Fox News, like in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; 6/23-27; 1,003 ME registered voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47% advantage.
It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.
Massachusetts
In a newly released University of New Hampshire poll (part of a New England polling series; 6/18-23; 370 MA likely Democratic primary voters; online), Sen. Ed Markey’s Democratic primary lead over US Congressman Seth Moulton has narrowed to just 41-35%, suggesting that he might be the next incumbent Senator to be denied renomination. Additionally, Sen. Markey has not been over 50% in any primary poll since October of 2025.
Should Rep. Moulton defeat the Senator, however, it will not be considered a Democratic Socialist victory as many are many of the other Democratic incumbent defeats. Rep. Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran, is not a DSA candidate, and has previously been considered a moderate, though he is moving leftward for this Senate primary campaign. A Moulton upset would, however, underscore the high level of frustration within both parties’ electorates.
Michigan
A new Tulchin Research survey (6/24-28; 500 MI likely Democratic primary voters) sees far left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.
According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17% margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (6/29-30; 947 MI likely voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8% over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.
Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.
New Hampshire
The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (6/18-23; 2,232 NH likely voters; online) and continues to project US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former US Senator John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown (R).
Paired with Mr. Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44% edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38%. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, September 8th, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.
St. Anselm’s College (6/24-25; 1,614 NH registered voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Mr. Sununu, 47-41%, and Mr. Brown, 48-36 percent.
Ohio
The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.
The Siena/NYT poll (6/15-28; 601 OH likely general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47%. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.
In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.
South Carolina
New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their its recent statewide poll (Impact Research; 6/17-22; 700 SC likely general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45% advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a ten-point, 54-44%, victory.
HOUSE
NC-1
The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (6/22-28; 500 NC-1 likely general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41% edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.
TX-28
A rather surprising new survey finds veteran US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; 6/21-23; 400 TX-28 likely general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38% lead over Rep. Cuellar.
The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. Such obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.
GOVERNOR
Iowa
The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; 6/23-27; 1,003 IA registered voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (6/15-27; 600 IA likely voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (6/16-19; 600 IA likely voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.
In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44%. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47%) and Cygnal (48-43%) detect much smaller Sand advantages.
New Hampshire
The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (6/18-23; 2,232 NH likely voters; online). Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term US Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39% margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.
St. Anselm’s College (6/24-25; 1,614 NH registered voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.
