ELECTION RESULTS
Maryland Primary
Freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) overcame more than $25 million in opposition money to defeat former Congressman David Trone who was again self-financing an attempted political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary.
Rep. Delaney was projected the winner with a 44-38% vote spread. Her strong performance in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick, paved the way for her renomination victory.
In the open 5th District, retiring veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie), easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and US Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Mr. Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.
Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) swamping Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70% of the vote.
New York Primary
Democratic Socialists in New York City scored a big victory on Tuesday as their candidates defeated two Democratic US House incumbents and won an open congressional primary. The Democratic primary in all three cases is, for all intents and purposes, the election, so all three of these winners will sail through the November vote and enter Congress in January.
Even outspending his opponent, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, by $6 million couldn’t prevent Rep. Dan Goldman from losing by a whopping 66-34% landslide margin. The other incumbent loss was close. In the Harlem anchored seat, DSA and anti-Israel activist Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated a five-term incumbent, Adriano Espaillat, 49-46 percent.
The third Democratic Socialist also won easily. Brooklyn state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez topped a crowded open Democratic field. She will replace Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez who is retiring after serving 34 years.
The three victories are a clear win for Socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his political organization. The Mayor heavily supported all three candidates. Overcoming big expenditure campaigns, the two challengers scored impressive victories, while Ms. Valdez was favored at the outset in her open seat campaign.
The two incumbent congressional defeats mean the total of those losing renomination now grows to six, four Democrats and two Republicans. Electoral frustration is clearly the reason four of these members lost. President Trump targeting his most disloyal House Republican, Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, and defeating him, along with Dallas Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson losing because of an unfavorable redistricting map, account for the other two unseated congressional incumbents.
In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.
In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22% Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.
In District 17, which will be a major national congressional campaign as Democrats attempt to unseat two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in a swing political district, former National Security Council official Cait Conley was an easy Democratic primary winner attracting just under 50% of the vote over four opponents. We will be seeing a lot of this race in the general election.
In a campaign where money did make a difference, Trump endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Mr. Constantino rolled to a 59-41% victory.
The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.
South Carolina Runoff
As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31% victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Mr. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.
In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46% result. Ms. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.
Utah Primary
In the state’s new Democratic Salt Lake City District, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, Mr. McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 56% of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the Autumn election.
Before winning nomination to the new 1st District, Mr. McAdams represented the previous 4th District for one term. He lost the seat in the 2020 election to Republican Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City). Because of the court decision that ordered the state’s congressional map redrawn, Rep. Owens decided to retire rather than force a paired Republican primary.
In new districts, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Representative Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse) in the 2nd District; Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner; while freshman Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was surprisingly unopposed for the party nomination in the new 4th District. The Congressman’s new CD is geographically opposite of Utah’s eastern 3rd District seat to which he was first elected in 2024.
SENATE
Louisiana
Saturday’s Republican US Senate runoff appears closer than most believed after the May primary election that sent Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) down to defeat. In the runoff are Trump endorsed US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), the presumed early favorite, and State Treasurer and former US Representative John Fleming. The latter man dropping over $11 million of his own money into his campaign communication program apparently has worked because the latest poll, from JMC Analytics (for the Fleming campaign; 6/21-22; 600 LA likely Republican runoff voters; text & live interview), finds Mr. Fleming pulling into the lead with a 45-40% preference spread over Rep. Letlow.
The figures represent a 13-point improvement for Fleming according to the JMC pollsters. Another recent survey, from Louisiana pollster BDPC Advanced Strategies (6/15-16; 600 LA likely Republican runoff voters) also tracked serious movement for Mr. Fleming but still placed Rep. Letlow ahead with a tenuous 40-38% margin. Saturday’s winner will become Louisiana’s next Senator as the Democrats will not be able to forge a competitive general election challenge.
HOUSE
AZ-1
We see a momentum change in a Maricopa County congressional race. On the Republican side, according to a new NextGenPolling survey (6/16-17; 695 AZ-1 likely Republican primary voters; text-to-Web) Trump endorsed candidate Jay Feely, a former NFL placekicker and football sportscaster, has engineered a slight lead over state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R-Scottsdale). The ballot test found Mr. Feely’s slightly leading 25-23 percent. In previous polls, Mr. Chaplik, who has many prominent conservative activist endorsements, held large leads. The eventual Republican nominee will be in a toss-up race to replace US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) who is running for Governor.
On the Democratic side, Dr. Amish Shah, a former state Representative and the 2024 nominee against Rep. Schweikert, has a polling lead over retired news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods. In the 2024 race, Dr. Shah earned 48% of the vote against Rep. Schweikert. A number of prominent Democrats believe that Ms. Galan-Woods might be the stronger general election candidate, however.
ME-2
After weeks of tabulating the Ranked Choice Voting results from the June 9th primary, we see the procedure changed the outcome in several races. State Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), brother of former Governor and ex-Congressman John Baldacci, was leading the race at the end of actual counting but fell below the majority support figure. Therefore, the Ranked Choice votes were added to the aggregate total.
In the end, State Auditor Matt Dunlap was awarded the Democratic nomination. The general election will now pit the far left (Dunlap) against the far right (former Gov. Paul LePage). ME-2 is the most Republican district in the nation to send a Democrat to the US House; therefore, this race becomes a prime GOP conversion opportunity. Four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is retiring.
OH-7
In what should be a safe Republican seat, two-term US Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) looks to have a race on his hands. A recent GBAO survey for the Brian Poindexter (D) campaign (6/16-20; 500 OH-7 likely voters; live interview) finds the Congressman leading Mr. Poindexter, a Brook Park City Councilman, by only a 44-43% margin.
GOVERNOR
Kansas
Change Research released a poll conducted for the Civic Clarity organization (6/11-15; 1,022 KS likely Democratic primary voters; online) that tested the Democratic field for the open Governor’s race. Three candidates, with their Lt. Governor running mates, are running to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.
According to the survey, state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Johnson County) has a large 37-10-7% lead over state Sen. Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village), and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog. The Democratic nominee will be an underdog, however, to the person the Republicans choose in their August 4th primary election. Most believe that GOP race is between Secretary of State Scott Schwab and state Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover).
Maine
The Ranked Choice Voting system also changed the outcome of the Governor’s race. At the end of counting the actual votes, former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah held the lead. After the RCV alternate choice votes were added in political overtime, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland) was awarded the Democratic nomination. The RCV process did not change the Republican result, however. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles’ initial lead held through the RCV rounds and he is now the official GOP nominee.
Also moving into the general election is state Senator Rick Bennett (I-Raymond), an ex- Republican, running as an Independent in this election. As a former Maine Republican Party chairman, National Committeeman, and state legislator, it is likely that he will draw some Republican votes away from Charles. This three-way election card makes Ms. Pingree a prohibitive favorite to win the general election to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D).
Oklahoma
The close Republican primary looks to be equally tight in the August 25th GOP runoff election. A new Cygnal research organization poll (6/18-19; 600 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) found Attorney General Gentner Drummond leading former state Budget Secretary and ex-state Senator Mike Mazzei by a slight 44-42% margin, meaning the race is virtually tied.
A Trump endorsement for Mazzei brought him from behind to capture second place. The tight primary found AG Drummond placing first with 26.3% of the vote, just ahead of Mr. Mazzei’s 26.0 percent. Winning the Republican runoff will likely prove a ticket to the Governor’s mansion in the general election.
