PRIMARY RESULTS
Texas Runoffs
The May 26th Texas runoffs were the only election of the week, and the results featured several incumbents losing their renomination battles.
Four-term Republican US Senator John Cornyn went down in a landslide, losing to state Attorney General Ken Paxton by a 64-36% margin. The Paxton victory was so convincing that the incumbent managed victories in only two of the state’s 254 counties.
In Houston, 11-term Democratic US Representative Al Green, who came to national notoriety for shaking his walking cane at President Trump during his address to the nation in 2025 before being escorted from the chamber, was escorted out of Congress during the week.
Congressman Green lost in a landslide to congressional newcomer Christian Menefee who won his seat just last November when he replaced the late Congressman Sylvester Turner in a special election. The two were then paired in a single district under the new Texas redistricting map.
In Dallas, freshman Democratic Congresswoman Julie Johnson lost her bid for re-election to former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred. Ms. Johnson’s 32nd District was converted to a Republican seat in redistricting, so she was forced into an unfamiliar 33rd District, a place where Mr. Allred previously represented more territory.
In the newly drawn 35th District, which stretches from San Antonio halfway to Corpus Christi, another Trump‑versus‑Abbott proxy contest broke in the President’s favor. Businessman Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), defeated state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) by nearly a 60-40 percent margin.
For the Democrats, as expected, Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia won the party’s runoff with more than 62% of the vote, defeating therapist Maureen Galindo, who had previously made controversial and bigoted public statements. The general election is likely to be competitive, though the newly drawn district leans at least somewhat in the Republicans’ favor.
The Texas runoffs also gave President Trump more primary victories. He endorsed Mr. Paxton, but so late in the race that the die was already cast. The President’s backing, however, could have boosted the Paxton margin.
In several of the House races, President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed different candidates. In each case, Mr. Trump’s candidate won.
Another Texas Congressman went down to defeat in the May 26th runoff election, but he wasn’t running for re-election. Austin-San Antonio Congressman Chip Roy lost his bid for the Republican nomination for state Attorney General to Galveston area state Senator Mayes Middleton.
US House runoff winners who will easily win their general election campaigns are Alexandra “Alex” Mealer (R) in the open 9th CD; agribusinessman Tom Sell (R) won his 19th District runoff in a landslide and will succeed retiring Congressman Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock); and, financial advisor Jon Bonck won his runoff election and will succeed US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) who risked his congressional seat for an unsuccessful US Senate run.
SENATE
Alabama
The Remington Research Group conducted a poll for the Alabama Conservatives Super PAC (5/21-22; 722 AL likely Republican runoff voters) and found anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson now taking a one-point, 41-40%, lead over US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) as the candidates move toward the June 16th runoff date.
Previously, polling had all shown Rep. Moore leading and he placed first in the May 19th Alabama primary with 39.2% of the vote. The Alabama Conservatives PAC supports Mr. Hudson. The RRG poll contradicts a Pulse Decision Science survey (5/17-18; 518 AL likely Republican runoff voters) produced a much different result. The PDS data finds Rep. Moore leading 53-36 percent.
Minnesota
Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) announced that she will not compete for the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party official endorsement at the nominating convention this weekend. The Congresswoman intends to force a primary election. Under Minnesota political procedure, candidates compete for the respective party nominations, but then withdraw from the race if they fail to win the endorsement. Candidates have the right to force a primary election, but most adhere to the party delegates’ decision.
It has been a foregone conclusion that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), with her support from Gov. Tim Walz (D), and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), would win the party nomination endorsement. Such will now materialize because Ms. Flanagan will be effectively unopposed for the convention vote.
We can expect a very active and potentially nasty Democratic primary election to unfold in the weeks before the August 11th primary election. The Democratic nominee will then face Republican sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, who is expected to easily win the Republican nomination.
South Carolina
While many incumbents of both parties are facing serious renomination competition, one veteran US Senator appears to be cruising to another primary victory. The Trafalgar Group (5/21-24; 1,125 SC likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Lindsey Graham leading his Republican primary opponent, businessman Mark Lynch, by a substantial 52-28% margin.
HOUSE
CT-1
Another potential House incumbent upset is brewing, this time in Hartford, Connecticut. A Global Strategy Group poll conducted for the VoteVets Action Fund (5/18-21; 500 CT-1 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Democratic Party endorsed contender Luke Bronin, the former Hartford mayor, leading veteran US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) by a 38-30% count. Trailing in third place is state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) with 10% support.
The Connecticut primary is August 11th, so time remains for this race to greatly change. This is another of the campaigns where a younger Democrat is challenging an elderly veteran House member for the party nomination.
FL-13
While the new Florida redistricting map is being challenged in court, Public Policy Polling (for the Leela Gray campaign; 5/19-20; 616 FL-13 registered voters; text and live interview) tested a competitive congressional race and finds Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) leading retired Army General Leela Gray (D) by only a 41-39% count.
NY-15
Another incumbent facing a serious nomination challenge appears to be doing well. US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has been under attack for his strong support of Israel and willingness to call out his Democratic leadership. According to a Braun Research survey for the A Fight Worth Having Super PAC (4/28-5/10 but released 5/26; 422 NY-15 likely primary voters), Rep. Torres leads former state Assemblyman Michael Blake and minor candidate Jose Vega, 60-15-7 percent.
GOVERNOR
California
The open California Governor’s race has been in a state of flux almost since the beginning. With 60 candidates on the ballot, it appeared for a time that Republicans had a chance to clinch the two general election ballot positions because the dominant Democratic vote appeared to be split among so many candidates. Such, however, is no longer the case because Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) has fallen off the pace.
Most of the recent polling of the June 2nd jungle primary where the top two finishers will advance to the general election regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained suggests that former Fox News host Steve Hilton is the favorite to capture the first general election ballot position. The second position looks to be a toss-up between former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) and billionaire Tom Steyer (D).
The three most recent public polls, from the Global Strategy Group, Kreate Strategies, and Public Policy Polling, each see a different leader. GSG found Mr. Hilton leading; Kreate posts Mr. Becerra in first place; and PPP posts Mr. Steyer to the lead. Therefore, it appears anything can happen in this election, but it appears likely that two of the above three candidates will advance to the November vote.
South Carolina
The upcoming South Carolina Republican gubernatorial battle continues to produce extremely close polling numbers and any of the five major candidates could qualify for the runoff election from the initial primary vote on June 9th.
The most recent SC gubernatorial survey from The Trafalgar Group (5/21-24; 1,125 SC likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, businessman Rom Reddy, and US Reps. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) all within the polling margin of error. The ballot test reads 20-19-19-16-15% in the order previously listed.
The top two finishers, since we are assured that no candidate will secure a majority, will advance to a June 23rd runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).
South Dakota
Another close Governor’s nomination campaign is occurring in South Dakota where Gov. Larry Rhoden is facing three strong challengers who may force the June 2nd primary into a runoff.
According to a Public Sentiment Institute survey (5/26-27; 400 SD likely primary voters) Gov. Rhoden leads at-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell), businessman Toby Doeden, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen, 32-27-24-18%, respectively. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on July 28th.
