NATIONAL
Early Voting
According to the statisticians at the University of Florida’s Election Lab, over 43 million people have already cast their ballots through the early voting system in 47 states. The numbers include the all-mail, or virtual all-mail states of California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. The early voting pace is likely to eclipse the 49.1 million people who voted before election day in 2022. The national voter turnout four years ago, in the most recent midterm election, was just over 107.7 million individuals, meaning 45.6% of the electorate voted early.
SENATE
Alaska
A story broke in the New York Times that paints Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola in a bad light, suggesting with evidence that she lied about not being a part of the scheme to recruit Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. (I) to enter the Senate race. The ploy is apparently trying to confuse voters about which Dan Sullivan is the incumbent Senator.
While the name confusion isn’t going to cause many people to vote for the “wrong Dan Sullivan” regardless as to whom they believe is the “right” Dan Sullivan, an argument brought forth from columnist Sean Trende in the Poll Vault political blog suggests that Ms. Peltola being a part of a group trying to “game” the election cuts directly opposite of the image she builds for herself as an Independent Democrat who will “put Alaska first.”
The name confusion story is getting legs, but it remains to be seen if it influences Tuesday’s election. So far, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, 61,649 people have already voted. In the 2022 midterm election, the total Alaska turnout was 267,047 individuals. Therefore, enough later early and election day voters remain to swing the Senate race.
Kansas
The latest CNN/SSRS poll (10/20-26; 838 KS likely voters; live interview & online) sees challenger Adam Hamilton (D) leading Sen. Roger Marshall (R) by a 49-45% clip, but even their own analysis says the race is too close to call.
It is important to remember that a comparable point in the 2014 Kansas campaign, SurveyUSA (Oct. 22-26) projected Independent Greg Orman leading Sen. Roberts, 44-42 percent. Fox News (Oct. 28-30) found a similar result, giving Orman a 44-43 percent advantage. Two other polls showed Roberts holding a slight lead: YouGov (Oct. 25-31) found a 38-37 percent split, while Public Policy Polling (Oct. 30-31), conducting a better poll, posted Roberts ahead 47-46 percent. Going into Election Day, PPP (Nov. 1-3) again gave Orman a narrow 47-46 percent edge. On election night, however, Roberts prevailed by a decisive 53.1 – 42.5 percent margin.
In 2020, when Roger Marshall was running from his position as the western Kansas 1st District Congressman, the polling trajectory looked similar to that of Sen. Roberts’ 2014 campaign.
Public Policy Polling (Oct. 19-20) found Democrat Barbara Bollier, a state legislator who had switched parties after originally winning election to the Kansas Senate as a Republican, tied with Marshall at 43 percent apiece. GBAO Strategies (Oct. 25-27) projected Bollier holding a slight 46-45 percent advantage.
As Election Day approached, polling began moving in Marshall’s direction. VCreek/AMG (Oct. 25-27) showed Marshall leading 47-43 percent, while Data for Progress (Oct. 27-Nov. 1) found him ahead 51-45 percent. On election night, Marshall won comfortably, 53.2 – 41.8 percent. It remains to be seen in the 2026 election results follow this same pattern.
Michigan
We are possibly seeing the same polling pattern developing in Michigan that occurred during the primary. The question is whether the election result will follow its previous course. Six closing polls find Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by an average of five percentage points.
Going into the primary, we saw a similar, but more exaggerated polling progression. For that Democratic election on August 4th, six different pollsters found Mr. El-Sayed leading his opponent, US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), by an average of 15 percentage points but he won with only a one-point margin in the actual vote. If the polling proves accurate, El-Sayed has the advantage for election night. If we see the same El-Sayed over-poll factor, then Mr. Rogers has a chance to score an upset victory.
South Carolina
The post-primary death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) has caused havoc in the shortened open seat race. With the appointment of the late Senator’s sister, Darline Graham (R), and her special Republican primary victory the ensuing campaign with Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) became more competitive than was expected.
The latest survey from East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research (10/19-24; 955 SC registered voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Graham leading Dr. Andrews 51-47%. The poll result suggests that Sen. Graham has the momentum with early voting concluding and election day on the horizon.
HOUSE
AZ-1
In what should be one of the tightest general election contests but one that has had little in the way of released polling, a new survey of the congressional race between Dr. Amish Shah (D), the 2024 congressional nominee, and former NFL place kicker and sports analyst Jay Feely (R) was just released. The survey, from Keating Research (10/26-28; 500 AZ-1 likely general election voters; live interview), finds Dr. Shah leading Mr. Feely, 49-45 percent. This result, as we would expect in this district that carries a partisan lean of 50.9R – 47.9D (Dave’s Redistricting App), falls within the polling margin of error, thus classifying the contest as a toss-up.
CA-4
Some unusual information is coming from California’s 4th Congressional District featuring a double-Democratic runoff between veteran US Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) and tech entrepreneur Eric Jones. Mr. Jones curiously just released two internal surveys from different pollsters, both showing him running well ahead of the Congressman.
Fulcrum Campaign Strategies (10/18-20; 400 CA-4 likely general election voters) finds Mr. Jones leading Rep. Thompson, 53-40%. David Binder Research (10/15-21; 600 CA-4 likely general election voters) produced a 45-35% ballot test result, again in Mr. Jones’ favor.
While the two candidates fight for majority votes, ironically, the biggest outstanding coalition and one likely having negative opinions of both candidates – the registered Republicans who number 134,659 – are likely the deciding factor. Mr. Jones originally moved left after the primary but now is courting Republicans to a degree. The top finishing Republican in the June jungle primary, for instance, has endorsed Mr. Jones. So have 10 other prominent Republicans that he champions. Additionally, he has moderated his issue platform, calling for a program that would exempt from federal income tax those with annual incomes of less than $150,000.
Though the polling may be somewhat skewed, there could be enough Jones momentum that an upset here occurs once the state’s lengthy ballot tabulation process ends which could be as many as 36 days post-election day.
CA-34
Another California incumbent forced into a double-Democratic general election campaign appears to be in re-election trouble. US Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) continues to face polling data showing him trailing his Democratic general election opponent, Highland Park Town Councilwoman Angela Gonzales-Torres. The latest survey, conducted by the University of Southern California’s Democracy and Fair Elections Lab (10/16-24; 423 CA-34 likely general election voters), finds Ms. Gonzales-Torres leading Rep. Gomez by a 51-45% margin and is the second consecutive poll finding the Congressman trailing.
IN-5
Another seemingly safe Republican incumbent appears to be in a tight race. US Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), who announced her retirement prior to the 2024 election only to reverse course and secure another term, finds herself in a competitive 2026 campaign. According to the most recent Expedition Strategies poll (9/30 – 10/4) but released this week, Spartz holds only a narrow 48-47% lead over Democratic state Sen. J.D. Ford (D-Wayne Township).
The findings are consistent with a July Impact Research survey that also showed the race essentially tied, with Spartz leading 48-46%. Despite the close polling, the district remains strongly Republican. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 57.0R – 39.6D, a structural advantage that should provide Rep. Spartz with a sufficient victory cushion.
PA-7
In one of the most critical congressional districts from which to potentially draw a national trend, the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is one that seesaws between the parties. Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) battles former firefighters union president Bob Brooks (D) to win a second term. According to Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion survey (10/6-15; 529 PA-7 likely voters; live interview), Mr. Brooks holds a six-point, 49-43% lead, over Rep. Mackenzie.
The fact that the poll has a large sample and was conducted through live interviews is a plus, but the long ten-day sampling period during a heightened time of campaigning lessens reliability.
GOVERNOR
Kansas
The most recent gubernatorial poll suggests that the Jayhawk State race may be one of the few where the electorate replaces an outgoing Democratic Governor with a Republican. According to a CNN/SSRS survey (10/20-26; 838 KS likely voters; live interview & online) state Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) leads state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) 50-45%. Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New Hampshire
A newly released University of Massachusetts at Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion survey conducted by international online pollster YouGov (10/2-19; 600 NH likely voters; online), like other pollsters, finds a split electorate. In the Governor’s race, UML sees Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) leading former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D), 49-43%. In the Senate race, the Democratic candidate, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), tops former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), 48-41 percent.
Though this survey’s findings appear consistent with other polling data, an 18-day sampling period and a small respondent universe for an online survey brings the produced data’s reliability into question. In terms of projecting who wins the race, YouGov likely has correctly predicted the victors, but the reliability factor pertaining to the point spreads will prove weak.
Ohio
A campaign ad from Republican Vivek Ramaswamy that features opponent Amy Acton’s (D) estranged mother calling her a liar has backfired with leaders in both parties. Virtually all are condemning the ad, and GOP leaders fear the reverberations will hurt other Republicans on the election ticket.
Whether this alone is pushing people toward Ms. Acton remains unknown, but the closing polls are giving her an advantage and the open Governor’s campaign appears to be leaning in her direction. It remains to be seen if the gubernatorial trend helps carry former Sen. Sherrod Brown and congressional Democrats in top races over the political finish line.
Tennessee
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears headed for victory on Tuesday night in the state’s Governor’s race. Should she win, Ms. Blackburn is set to make the appointment to succeed herself for what will be a vacant Tennessee Senate seat upon her resignation to become Governor. Local political prognosticators believe her choice will be U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett (R‑Knoxville), which will open the door for Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs (R) to run in a special election for what will be a vacant US House seat.
Wisconsin
Another poll verifies what virtually every other survey has shown of the open Wisconsin Governor’s race. That is, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) leads US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) by three percentage points. In this case, a Wick Research survey for the League of American Workers (10/26-27; 1,213 WI likely general election voters; online) sees Mr. Crowley with a 48-45% advantage.
The three-point spreads are all within the polling margin of error, meaning the race is a toss-up heading into election day. The fact, however, that Mr. Crowley leads in every survey suggests that he has at least a small edge.
