ELECTION RESULTS
Massachusetts Primary
Polling accurately anticipated the outcome of the Bay State’s September 1st Senate primary, as veteran incumbent Ed Markey easily defeated U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D‑Salem) by a 65-35 percent margin. The six‑term Congressman attempted to frame the race around age and longevity. Sen. Markey is 80 years old and has held elective office continuously since first winning a seat in the Massachusetts House of Representatives back in 1972.
In the end, the Moulton attack line failed to gain traction. Sen. Markey now heads into the general election with a prohibitive advantage over attorney John Deaton, who was unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Incumbent Gov. Maura Healey was unopposed in the Democratic primary, and, as expected, former healthcare company executive Mike Minogue won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman and retired Marine Corps veteran Brian Shortsleeve by a commanding 76-24 percent margin.
Veteran Rep. Richard Neal (D‑Springfield) defeated educator Jeromie Whalen by a narrower‑than‑expected 54-46 percent margin, which is remarkably tight given the campaign’s extreme spending disparity. Through the pre‑primary reporting period ending August 12th, Rep. Neal held a $3 million to $330,000 expenditure advantage.
In the 4th District, three‑term Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D‑Newton) easily dispatched research scientist Jason Poulos, once viewed as a potentially credible challenger. Rep. Auchincloss secured renomination with a 72-28 percent victory.
House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D‑Revere) also cruised, winning 74 percent of the vote against two opponents. She advances to the November general election as a prohibitive favorite in her 5th District, which carries a 68.3D – 29.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.
In the open 6th District, as polling suggested, former Andover Selectman and ex‑Biden Administration official Dan Koh won the Democratic nomination with a 41-30-12-9 percent result over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D‑Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, and former state Rep. Jamie Belsito. Mr. Koh previously lost a 2018 3rd District primary to current Rep. Lori Trahan (D‑Westford) by just 145 votes.
Finally, in the Boston‑anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D‑South Boston) defeated former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath, 57-43 percent, in a race that fundraising and polling had suggested would be competitive.
SENATE
Iowa
Emerson College surveyed the Hawkeye State electorate (8/31-9/1; 750 IA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and projects US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/ Cedar Rapids) holding a 50-45% lead over state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). This is the tenth released ballot test survey since the June 2nd primary from nine different polling organizations. In six of those surveys, Rep. Hinson posts a small lead; in three Mr. Turek does the same; and in one, the initial post-primary poll, the candidates tied at 46% apiece.
Kansas
The latest state to show signs of competitiveness in its US Senate contest is Kansas. A new Global Strategy Group survey (8/12-16; 800 likely voters) finds Democrat Adam Hamilton holding a narrow 44-43 percent edge over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas polling projecting a Democrat within striking distance in September is not unusual, and recent history suggests caution in interpreting such numbers.
Certainly, this is not the first time in recent memory where we have seen Kansas polling data putting the Democratic nominee on the same footing as their Republican opponent only to see the GOP prevail by about 10 percentage points on election day. Such was the case in 2020 when Sen. Marshall was first elected, facing similar polling volatility. That September, Mr. Marshall, then a US Representative, led in two polls, trailed in two, and was tied in two more. He ultimately won the open Senate race with a 53-42 percent margin.
New Hampshire
Fabrizio Lee & Associates released a recent New Hampshire Senate poll (polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee; 8/27-30; 600 NH likely general election voters; live interview & text; five Independent candidates are included) that posts former Senator John E. Sununu (R) to be one point ahead, 37-36%, over US Rep. Chris Pappas (D).
This is the second consecutive poll that finds Mr. Sununu holding a small lead, reversing the previous trend seen throughout most of this year. The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday, so Rep. Pappas and Mr. Sununu will become official nominees at that time. Both have intra-party opposition, and each are expected to easily prevail.
South Carolina
Impact Research, conducting a poll for the Annie Andrews campaign (8/18-24; 700 SC likely general election voters; online & text), sees the new South Carolina Senate race between Dr. Andrews (D) and appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) evolving into a dead heat race with both candidates tied at 41% support. Signs are clear that the post-Republican special primary campaign is becoming competitive.
HOUSE
AZ-2
Again, we see a political campaign with released conflicting polling data. Peak Insights, polling for Rep. Eli Crane’s (R-Oro Valley) campaign (8/17-20; 400 AZ-2 likely general election voters; live interview) finds the Congressman leading his 2024 opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, 53-42%.
Democratic pollster GBAO, polling for the Nez campaign (8/21-24; 500 AZ-2 likely general election voters), produced a much different ballot test. The GBAO results find Rep. Crane’s lead at only 46-44%. In 2024, Rep. Crane defeated Mr. Nez, 55-45 percent.
CA-7
Data for Progress completed a poll in California’s 7th District, anchored in the capital city of Sacramento. The survey tested the double-Democratic campaign between veteran incumbent Doris Matsui and Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang. In the June 2nd qualifying election, Ms. Vang placed first, just ahead of the Congresswoman. This race will be competitive with Vang attacking the 82-year-old incumbent from the political left. Rep. Matsui is seeking her 12th term. She won the seat in a 2005 special election to succeed her late husband, Rep. Bob Matsui (D), who had represented the district since 1979.
The DfP poll (8/18-21; 651 CA-7 likely voters; online) conducted for the Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, and the Leaders We Deserve organization, all Vang allies, sees the Councilwoman leading the Congresswoman by a 32-28% margin, which is similar to the 31-29% jungle primary vote.
FL 9 & 16
The SEA Polling & Strategic Design firm conducted congressional polls for two Democratic House candidates. Each produce a Democratic over-performance in districts that are designed to elect a Republican.
In CD-9 (8/24-30; 400 FL-9 likely general election voters; 100-person oversample of No Party Affiliation (Independent) voters; live interview & text), the initial ballot tests finds Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) and former Defense Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Green (R) tied with 41% preference.
In the 16th District from which veteran US Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring, the SEA survey (8/25-29; 400 FL-16 likely general election voters; live interview & text) sees Democrat Kelly Kirschner and Republican Sidney Gruters, wife of Republican National Committee chairman Joe Gruters, in a virtual tie with Mr. Kirschner holding a small 40-39% edge.
FL-13
Hart Research Associates, polling for the House Majority PAC (8/25-27; 500 FL-13 likely voters) finds Democratic challenger Leela Gray posting a one-point advantage over two-term US Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg), 44-43%, with Independent Tony D’Arrigo receiving 7% support. The 13th CD was made more Republican in the 2026 redistricting process, and it appears that Rep. Luna will need the extra party support to win a third term.
NH-1
The Tavern Research firm conducted a pre-primary poll of New Hampshire’s open 1st District Democratic primary (8/28-31; 400 NH-1 likely Democratic primary voters; text) and again produces ballot test results that finds former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex-Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), and Hampton Town Selectwoman Carleigh Beriont by a 33-27-12% margin.
There are a total of seven active candidates, but the race has largely evolved into a two-way contest between Sullivan and Shaheen, with the former leading in all polling.
The winner of Tuesday’s primary will face the Republican nominee, either former New Hampshire Republican Party Vice Chair Hollie Noveletsky or business owner Anthony DiLorenzo, in what will be a competitive short general election cycle. Incumbent US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is risking the seat to run for the US Senate.
TX-35
The 35th District is a new seat that the Texas redistricting map drawers created in San Antonio and some of the Lone Star State’s rural area located south and east of the city. The seat is competitive. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 50.9R – 46.7D.
The just-released Normington Petts & Associates poll for the House Majority PAC (8/27-31; 500 TX-35 likely general election voters) finds business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), in a toss-up race with law enforcement officer Johnny Garcia (D). The ballot test breaks 45-44% in Mr. De La Cruz’s favor. This is another of the new Texas districts that will be competitive in November.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
Weeks after the August 18th primary, the Alaska general election ballot is finally set. Under the state’s unique and unwieldy primary system, the top four candidates advance to the general election. Candidates have the option of choosing not to proceed to the general election, at which point the next closest finisher has the right to advance. In the Governor’s race, so many candidates declined to proceed that the eighth-place finisher now occupies the final general election slot.
The most significant move was former state Senator Tom Begich (D), who placed second in the overall vote, declining to proceed and endorsing the first-place finisher, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins (D).
The decision means that Mr. Kreiss-Tompkins will be the lone Democrat on the general election ballot. He will face three Republicans led by former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson and ex-Anchorage Mayor David Bronson. If no candidate receives 50% support in the November election, Ranked Choice Voting begins and will be in effect until one of the candidates tops the 50% threshold.
Iowa
As mentioned in the Iowa Senate section, Emerson College surveyed the Hawkeye State electorate (8/31-9/1; 750 IA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and sees State Auditor Rob Sand, the only statewide elected Democratic official, leading businessman Zach Lahn (R) by a 49-46% clip. Seven polls have been released since the June 2nd primary, and Mr. Sand has led in each between 1 and 5 percentage points. It is likely we will see a close finish here on November 3rd.
