Top political stories coming from the early part of the Veterans Day weekend
A congressional retirement announcement from New Jersey, ex-US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) taking the lead in a new Michigan Senate general election poll, and a Texas Senate survey finds 2024 US Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred again trailing in the Democratic primary.
NJ-12
Yesterday, saying “it’s time to pass the torch,” six-term US Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), 80 years of age, announced that she will not seek re-election next year.
Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, she served 17 years in the New Jersey General Assembly, four years of which as Majority Leader. From 2002-06, Ms. Watson Coleman chaired the New Jersey Democratic Party.
The Garden State’s 12th District, which includes the capital city of Trenton; Princeton University; and North, East, and South Brunswick, is reliably Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.5D – 43.5R partisan lean.
The central New Jersey district was at one time a Republican domain, but redistricting and a change in voting patterns have yielded Democratic representation since the beginning of 1999. Therefore, Rep. Watson Coleman’s successor will almost assuredly come from winning what promises to be a hotly contested Democratic primary.
The Watson Coleman retirement means 39 seats will be open in 2026, not counting the CDs headed to special elections in Tennessee and Texas, along with New Jersey’s 11th District seat when Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) resigns from the House.
From the group of 2026 open seat members, Rep. Watson Coleman becomes the 15th Democrat not to seek re-election and the 11th to retire from politics. The other 28 are seeking a different office or moving to a congressional district other than the one they currently represent.
MI-Senate
The Rosetta Stone polling organization released the results of an independent poll that finds Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers polling ahead of all three Democratic US Senate contenders.
Mr. Rogers, who served seven terms in the House before retiring, returned to enter elective politics with his run for the Senate in 2024. In an open seat battle with then-US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), Mr. Rogers came within 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million votes cast of winning the race, a percentage margin of 48.6 – 48.3.
The Rosetta Stone poll, released over the weekend, (10/23-25; 637 MI likely general election voters) finds Mr. Rogers, who is virtually unopposed for the Republican nomination, ahead beyond the polling margin of error individually against each of the Democrats: US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
Opposite Rep. Stevens, Mr. Rogers leads 47-40%. If Sen. McMorrow was his opponent, the Rogers edge would be a similar 46-39%. The Rogers’ advantage grows if Mr. El-Sayed becomes his general election opponent. Under this scenario, the former Congressman posts a 45-31% margin.
Other polls have shown this race much closer, but this is the first publicly released statewide poll since June.
Rosetta Stone tested the Democratic Senate primary, but the sample size of only 287 likely Democratic primary voters indicates the results should be considered statistically insignificant in a state the size of Michigan.
TX-Senate
New polling in the Texas Senate Democratic primary again shows trouble for 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred.
The Impact Research survey conducted for the James Talarico Senate campaign (10/23-29; 836 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds state Rep. Talarico taking a 48-42% lead over Mr. Allred.
In a late September survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, the academic pollsters found Mr. Allred lagging in last place if the Democratic field consisted of he, US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), former El Paso US Rep. and statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Rep. Talarico. For her part, Rep. Crockett says she is considering the Senate race. Ms. Crockett has led several Democratic statewide polls.
It has been known for some time that the Republican Senate primary would be a hard-fought contest between four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and recently entered US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Now, however, analyzing the available polling data leads to the conclusion that the Democratic primary appears just as competitive as the Republican contest.
