Resignation of Washington state Republican – who voted to impeach Trump – increases House open seat count to 48
Yesterday, central Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) announced that he will not seek a seventh term next year. Rep. Newhouse’s retirement decision increases the House open seat count to 48.
Mr. Newhouse was originally elected to Congress in 2014 after serving as Director of the Washington Department of Agriculture. His career in electoral politics began with winning a seat in the state House of Representatives in 2002, where he served three-plus terms before being appointed to the agriculture position.
The Congressman averaged 59.3% of the vote in his six federal general elections, but under Washington’s jungle qualifying election system three of those contests were opposite another Republican. Rep. Newhouse’s 4th Congressional District is one of two safe Republican seats in Washington; hence, he faced a Republican opponent in three general elections, two when he was first elected and re-elected, and the last one in 2024.
As one of just ten Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6th situation at the Capitol, Mr. Newhouse did face pressure from Republican contenders in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. Of the group of ten House Republicans, only Rep. Newhouse and California Congressman David Valadao (R-Hanford) remain in office.
While Mr. Newhouse fared well in the general election, he did rather poorly in the associated qualifying elections under the jungle system. In the last two such votes, Mr. Newhouse only averaged 24.5% of the vote within crowded multi-candidate fields.
In 2024, the Congressman finished a full ten percentage points behind Trump-endorsed Republican Jerrod Sessler in the August qualifying election, but he managed to rebound to score a 52-46% win in the November general election. Retirement rumors were prevalent regarding Mr. Newhouse during the 2024 election cycle, so seeing him not seeking re-election in 2026 is unsurprising.
The 4th District of Washington lies in the central part of the state and stretches from the Canadian border to Oregon. The district contains six counties and parts of two others. In the 2024 presidential election, the WA-4 electorate voted for President Trump over Kamala Harris with a 59.0 – 38.3% margin, making it the strongest Trump district in Washington. The major population centers are the cities of Yakima, Kennewick and Richland, all located in the CD’s southern sector.
We can expect a large Republican field to form with the possibility of again seeing the voters send two party members into the general election. Mr. Sessler, who ran in the last two elections, previously announced that he will return for a third campaign and must be viewed as a strong contender to qualify for the general election. Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) had also previously announced her intention to run.
Tiffany Smiley, who challenged Sen. Patty Murray (D) in the 2022 general election and for a time was viewed as having upset potential, eventually lost in a 57-43% result. She then entered the 2024 jungle primary to challenge Rep. Newhouse. Ms. Smiley finished third in the jungle primary with 19% of the vote, thus failing to qualify for the general election. Therefore, it is possible that she will return to again compete for the congressional post. Without Rep. Newhouse in the field, Ms. Smiley would be viewed as another potentially strong candidate.
In terms of the national open seat count, we now see 48 open seats headed to the next election with three special elections coming in late January (TX-18; replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner-D), February (NJ-11; replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill-D), and March (GA-14; replacing soon-to-resign Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene-R). The remaining 45 open seats will all be filled in the regular 2026 election cycle.
From the 48 open seats, a total of 25 Republican members are not seeking re-election, 18 are Democrats, with five new seats created in California and Texas under those states’ new redistricting maps.
Within the subset of 42 serving members who are departing, a total of 15 are opting to retire from elective politics, another 14 are running for Governor of their respective states, 12 are US Senate candidates, and one is competing in an open state Attorney General’s contest, while one member passed away.
