Fate of 11 contenders to decide control of the upper chamber
Below is a status update of the eleven open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:
Alabama
Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Mr. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Mr. Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.
The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.
Illinois
With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.
Iowa
US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Mr. Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.
Kentucky
US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Mr. Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.
The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.
Michigan
An intense Democratic primary is underway among US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.
This primary won’t be decided until August 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.
Minnesota
While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.
A tough and late Democratic primary (August 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.
Montana
The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Mr. Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.
The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.
New Hampshire
Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former US Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43% margin in the Senate general election ballot test.
Mr. Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.
North Carolina
Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Governor Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.
Mr. Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic US Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.
Oklahoma
With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, means the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.
Former US Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.
Wyoming
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Ms. Hageman’s open congressional seat.
