A gambit to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive
Democrats and their ideological coalition partners are pursuing a coordinated strategy across the Mountain and Midwest states to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive. Their chances of unseating GOP incumbents remain low, but recent polling indicates that races in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota have tightened.
The approach follows the model established in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, when Independent Dan Osborn, with the help of the Nebraska Democratic Party, which agreed not to field its own candidate, turned what had appeared to be an easy re‑election path for Sen. Deb Fischer (R) into a serious contest.
Mr. Osborn returns this year, this time challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrats and their ideological allies have now replicated the Nebraska blueprint in Idaho and South Dakota, clearing the field for coalition‑aligned Independent candidates and persuading the Democratic nominees in all three states to withdraw. They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, but Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead refused to step aside.
Idaho
Sen. Jim Risch (R), who previously served a short stint as Idaho’s Governor, two non‑consecutive partial terms as Lt. Governor, and 22 years in the state Senate, is seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate.
In late July, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race, clearing a path for Independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, to mount a stronger challenge. The contest is not a direct one‑on‑one matchup, however, as two additional Independent candidates also appear on the ballot.
Highly conflicting August polls emerged within days of each other. Peak Insights (8/11-13; 500 Idaho likely voters) showed Sen. Risch with a commanding 52-18% lead over Achilles. By contrast, the Bullfinch Group (8/16-19; 608 Idaho likely voters) reported a dramatically different result, placing Achilles ahead 38-32%.
Across its three surveys of the race, the Bullfinch Group has consistently produced much tighter margins than other pollsters. For example, Change Research – a Democratic firm – found Risch in a far stronger position in its late July poll (7/28-30; 1,213 Idaho likely general election voters; online), showing the Senator leading Achilles 45-21%.
Sen. Risch remains favored for re‑election, but Mr. Achilles, running without the Democratic Party label, presents a more formidable challenge than a traditional party nominee would in heavily Republican Idaho.
Montana
Democratic Party leaders urged their June 2nd primary winner, retired Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, to withdraw from the Montana Senate race in order to give former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar a stronger chance of preventing Republican Kurt Alme from succeeding retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Ms. Bankhead refused and remains a candidate. Her presence on the ballot creates a four‑way contest that clearly benefits Mr. Alme.
Controversy erupted at the candidate filing deadline when Sen. Daines – who had already filed for re‑election – abruptly withdrew as the window was closing, allowing Alme to file with almost no time left for other Republicans to enter the race. In a hypothetical two‑way contest between Alme and Bodnar, the latter polled competitively and made the general election a genuine race.
In the multi‑candidate configuration, Alme leads by a substantial margin but falls short of majority support. Montana recognizes plurality victories, however, so the current ballot structure favors the GOP nominee.
The latest Hart Research poll underscores how Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race reshapes the contest. According to their survey (8/1-4; 800 Montana likely general election voters), Alme leads the four‑way race with 46%, Bodnar follows at 30% and Bankhead at 15%. In a hypothetical head‑to‑head matchup, Hart Research finds Alme and Bodnar tied at 46% each.
The FiftyPlusOne polling aggregator similarly shows Alme with an average 45-26-22% advantage over Bodnar and Bankhead, respectively.
Nebraska
Independent Dan Osborn returns with official Democratic Party and liberal organization backing after major‑party nominee Cindy Burbank – who initially insisted she would remain in the race even when the Secretary of State questioned her intentions – ultimately withdrew, giving Osborn a clear path. Last month, the Legalize Marijuana Party candidate also exited the contest, leaving Osborn in a direct one‑on‑one matchup with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).
As in 2024, polling now suggests the Nebraska Senate race is highly competitive. Still, based on historical voting patterns, the eventual outcome as Election Day approaches is likely to favor Sen. Ricketts by more than five percentage points.
Across his three statewide elections – two for Governor and one for the Senate in 2024, when he won the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term – Sen. Ricketts has averaged 59% of the vote.
South Dakota
The most recent Senate race in which an Independent has become the principal challenger to a Republican incumbent lies in South Dakota, where Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August. His departure leaves Independent Brian Bengs, a former Democrat, as Sen. Mike Rounds’ (R) chief opponent.
A new survey suggests the race could become competitive, though polls taken immediately after a major candidate withdrawal often give the remaining challenger a temporary boost. The Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted a live‑interview poll (8/13–17; 500 South Dakota likely general election voters) showing Mr. Bengs pulling into a 44-44% tie with Sen. Rounds.
It is unlikely that such parity will hold as Election Day approaches, but the result ensures that the South Dakota Senate race will receive more attention than originally expected.
