Latest on Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island Primaries
Wrapping up primary season, we come to the New England states, where three of the final four primaries will be held early next month. Delaware is the fourth state yet to nominate candidates for the November election, and its primary will occur even later than the New England trio.
Massachusetts voters will cast ballots on September 1st, New Hampshire holds its primary on the 8th, and Rhode Island follows on September 9th. Delawareans won’t vote until September 15th, but party endorsing conventions have effectively rendered the primary a pro forma exercise.
In preparation for the upcoming contests, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center fielded polls across the three New England states to provide a snapshot of the key nomination races. The UNH Survey Center routinely conducts surveys throughout the region.
In Massachusetts, Tuesday’s primary features a Democratic challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, along with an open race in the 6th Congressional District – the seat Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is risking to challenge the Senator.
According to the UNH Bay State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text), Sen. Markey holds a commanding 63-28 percent lead over Rep. Moulton and appears well positioned to secure renomination and a third full Senate term. Mr. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and served 36 years before winning his Senate seat.
The Global Strategy Group surveyed the 6th Congressional District primary electorate (7/30-8/2; 400 MA-6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found former Biden Administration official and ex-Andover Selectman Dan Koh, who lost the 3rd District 2018 Democratic primary by just 145 votes, leading this campaign with 34% voter preference. Crypto- currency executive John Beccia follows with 15 percent, and state Rep. Tran Nguyen (D-Andover) is close behind at 14 percent.
Turning to New Hampshire, the Granite State Poll shows a significant shift in the Senate campaign. The previous overall leader, Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), has lost some momentum. According to the survey results (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters; online), Rep. Pappas leads scientist Karishma Manzur by a reduced 47-34 percent margin – the first time he has fallen below 50 percent in any of the ten publicly released Democratic primary polls.
Even more striking, when paired with likely Republican nominee John E. Sununu, Mr. Pappas trails 45-43 percent, putting New Hampshire in play for November and offering Republicans a potential national boost.
While the 2nd Congressional District appears set for a general election re-match between freshman US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the open 1st District features hot primaries for both parties.
Among Democrats, the Granite State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 463 likely Democratic voters; online) shows former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex‑Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – by a 24-19 percent margin in a seven‑candidate field. Though support levels are low, both candidates appear viable heading into the September 8th vote.
On the Republican side, the 1st District contest is even tighter. Among 464 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, business owner and former state party vice chair Hollie Noveletsky leads auto dealer Anthony DiLorenzo by a narrow 28-25 percent split. New Hampshire’s 1st CD is one of the nation’s most competitive, ensuring a hard‑fought general election.
Finally, in Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race, Massachusetts‑ based Emerson College released new data (Aug. 21-22; 528 likely Democratic primary voters; mixed sampling techniques) again showing Gov. Dan McKee trailing badly against Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him four years ago. Ms. Foulkes leads 45-30 percent, consistent with polling throughout the cycle. Therefore, it becomes difficult to see a feasible path for Gov. McKee to win renomination on September 9th.
