Look forward to hotly contested and expensive races — and a prime conversion opportunity for the GOP
The Indiana and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday and while the Indiana general election appears quiet, we will see plenty of action in the Buckeye State of Ohio.
The Senate and Governor’s races will be hotly contested and expensive. Former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) returns in a comeback attempt after losing his seat in 2024 to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Now against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), we will see a different race.
It is important to remember that former Sen. Brown received 230,000+ more votes in his 2024 losing effort than he did when he last won in 2018. Yet, he still lost by just under four percentage points, thus showing how far Ohio has moved to the political right.
We can expect this year’s race to be expensive and will continue to feature close polling. In the campaign’s final two weeks, if the typical Ohio pattern remains true in 2026, Husted will pull away and win with a comfortable single-digit margin.
The open Governor’s race featuring Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Democratic ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton will also be very expensive and potentially end in a closer finish than the Senate campaign. Dr. Acton was in charge of the state’s Covid response so expect her decision toadvocate and implement a full shut down will become a campaign issue.
In the US House campaigns, six contests are of note. The most vulnerable seats under the new Ohio congressional map, to which the bipartisan elected officials redistricting commission unanimously agreed, are those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati).
Winning Tuesday’s 9th District Republican primary is the 2024 nominee, former state Representative Derek Merrin. In the ’24 contest, Mr. Merrin came within seven-tenths of a percentage point of unseating Rep. Kaptur, now fourth in US House seniority having been first elected in 1982.
The redistricting map made Democratic Rep. Kaptur’s Toledo anchored 9th CD even more Republican. Under the new plan, President Trump would have carried the seat by a 55-44% margin, a net four points more Republican than the previous district configuration. This race will be a top national GOP conversion opportunity.
The Democratic House Majority PAC has already committed more than $3 million in advertising buys in the Toledo market to help Rep. Kaptur, so we will see another red hot campaign here unfold over the next few months.
In Cincinnati, Rep. Landsman’s 1st District is also more Republican when compared to the previous Ohio congressional map. Before the changes, Kamala Harris recorded a 53-46% victory margin over President Trump. Rep. Landsman scored a re-election win percentage of 55 in 2024 after unseating veteran US Rep. Steve Chabot (R) two years earlier with a 53% percent victory total.
Under the new redistricting map, however, the 1st District dramatically changes. Instead of President Trump losing by seven points, he would have carried the new CD-1 with a three-point margin. Therefore, we see a net ten-point swing in Republicans’ favor, which certainly makes the 1st District 2026 campaign a major national target.
Former CIA case officer Eric Conroy became the consensus Republican candidate, and he easily won Tuesday’s Republican primary with 70% of the vote against two opponents.
But, the Democratic incumbent is no pushover. Rep. Landsman already possesses $2.9 million in his campaign account, and the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9 million in Cincinnati media time to aid his campaign.
Democrats are also targeting other races that appear as long shots. The House Majority PAC has reserved media airtime (including digital advertising) in the Cleveland market ($1.175 million) largely to target US
Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) in the new 7th CD. Winning the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night is Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter.
Some of the Cleveland market buy could also be used to support Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Her 13th District was thought to be a major target in 2026, but the new map actually made the seat more Democratic. Therefore, the top Republican candidate, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who held the Congresswoman to a 51-49% victory in 2024, dropped out of the race. As a result, Rep. Sykes is in strong position for re-election without much help needed from outside organizations.
The House Majority PAC is also investing heavily in the Dayton and Columbus markets.
In the 10th District, the Democrats are targeting veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton). A $2.8 million media reservation in the Dayton market suggests their efforts are serious. The new Democratic nominee is nurse and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker who defeated five Democratic opponents with one-third of the primary vote.
It remains to be seen if Ms. Knickerbocker can mount a serious challenge, but the HMP’s big monetary commitment suggests that they will make OH-10 a top national priority.
Finally, in clearly a long shot effort, the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.8 million in Columbus media time to challenge US Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus). His 15th District seat is a mid-50s Republican domain, which makes unseating a GOP incumbent very difficult.
The new Democratic nominee, defeating the 2024 challenger on Tuesday, is college professor Don Leonard. Party leaders believe he would be a stronger candidate than former state Rep. Adam Miller who lost to Carey 56-44% in the last election.
Though the media time is reserved, the buyer can make changes and cancellations (with a financial penalty) before the actual payment comes due. Therefore, if these challenges do not materialize to a satisfactory degree, the House Majority PAC leaders can transfer the money to other situations.
Expect the Ohio electorate to play a major role in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.
