The Sour New Hampshire Electorate

Polls failing to indicate a commitment to ousting Republicans? 

A local college recently tested the attitudes of New Hampshire voters regarding policy issues and their elected officials and found a seemingly embittered sampling universe. 

Yet, even with such pessimistic perceptions, the respondents’ choices pertaining to candidate preference remain surprisingly consistent with past voting patterns. Based upon the issue responses, one would have guessed the Democrats would be opening a wide lead, but such is not the case.

The St. Anselm’s College poll (3/16-18; 1,491 NH registered voters; online) tested several races on the New Hampshire ballot. In the open US Senate race, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), who has successfully positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate, leads former US Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43% clip. If former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, the ballot test would favor Rep. Pappas, 47-38%.

Emerson College released their new NH survey (3/21-23; 1,000 NH likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques), conducted after St. Anselm’s, and the pollsters find the Senate general election candidates floating in the same range, but even closer. Looking at the Emerson US Senate ballot test results, Mr. Pappas holds only a 45-44% edge over Sununu, and tops Brown 48-39%. 

The Emerson Republican primary split (524 NH likely Republican primary voters tested) also projects a stronger Sununu lead against Brown, 48-19%. St. Anselm’s saw a 49-28% Republican primary split in favor of Mr. Sununu.

In the Governor’s race, St. Anselm’s projects incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R), who is seeking a second two-year term this year, to hold a 46-39% advantage over former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D). If business owner Jon Kiper were the Democratic nominee, Gov. Ayotte’s lead would be 45-31%.

In the 2nd Congressional District campaign, St. Anselm’s tested the rematch between freshman US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 GOP nominee Lily Tang Williams. The results found Rep. Goodlander not surprisingly leading the 2026 contest, 48-36%. In 2024, Ms. Goodlander defeated Ms. Williams, 51-45% in their open seat contest.

All of the numbers seem consistent with where one would guess the races lie based upon New Hampshire voter history, but understanding that the previous voting trends are in and of themselves somewhat inconsistent.

Republicans haven’t done particularly well in the state during this century – President Trump has lost here three times, for example – but the Sununu family has prospered. Former Gov. Chris Sununu was elected four consecutive times. John E. Sununu, while losing the 2008 Senate race against Jeanne Shaheen in the Obama landslide year, was still elected to the House three times and once to the US Senate.

Therefore, the ballot test numbers appear legitimate and since both St. Anselm’s and Emerson fall into the same range on the Senate race (Emerson did not test the down ballot races), it is reasonable to surmise that the surveys fall within the proper accuracy realm.

Where the ballot test numbers and the policy responses seem at odds pertain to the entire sample’s tone. All of the questions, from the Trump approval rating (42% positive; 58% negative) to the Iran War (40% approve; 58% disapprove), to believing the country is on the wrong track (34% right track; 61% wrong track), and New Hampshire is also on the wrong track (36% right track; 50% wrong track) suggest that the electorate is ready to replace incumbent party en masse.

Additionally, none of the tested elected officials even as individuals are positively viewed (Trump: 42:58 positive to negative; VP J.D. Vance: 42:56; Sec of State Marco Rubio: 44:53; Gov. Kelly Ayotte: 48:48; Rep. Chris Pappas: 46:46). 

These cumulative responses and the Democrats holding a 49 to 41% edge on the congressional ballot test (if the election for Congress were held today, for which candidate would you likely vote: Democratic, Republican, Other, Unsure) would lead an observer to believe that the Democrats have a clear advantage in the state. As you have seen on the individual questions, however, when asked about their specific voter preference, in most cases the Democratic advantage is either narrow or non-existent. 

While the current period is clearly a negative one for the Trump Administration and the GOP congressional leadership, and most certainly believed as such in New Hampshire, the representative polling sample fails to indicate a strong commitment to ousting the Republicans. 

With still months to go before the general election, Republicans have time to rebound and likely will if things progress positively in Iran and with the national economy. In any event, the closing weeks associated with these midterm elections promise to deliver many more surprises.