Tomorrow’s MA Races

The Bay State ‘Blues’: Dems decide head-to-head matchups between moderate and progressive wings

Entering the final month of the primary election calendar, three Democratic nomination contests will be decided in tomorrow’s plurality elections. Sen. Ed Markey (D) appears well positioned to defeat his intra‑party challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), who is risking his seat to pursue the Senate race, thereby creating an open 6th District race.  

In the Boston area, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) is facing a credible Democratic challenger in his 8th District battle for renomination.

Senate

In this late‑stage U.S. Senate primary, we reach the culmination point of a contest that began a year ago when six‑term Rep. Moulton surprisingly announced that he would challenge veteran Sen. Ed Markey.

Six years earlier, when facing a high‑profile primary opponent, Sen. Markey defeated then‑Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III by ten points, despite beginning the race significantly behind in early polling.  

At the time of the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Markey had already won two statewide elections, 18 U.S. House contests, and two races for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Heading into tomorrow’s vote, Markey has won 23 Bay State elections, translating into 52 consecutive years in public office.

Polling indicates that Markey is in strong position to win again. The University of New Hampshire Research Center’s June Bay State Poll (June 18–23; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) showed Markey leading Moulton 41-35 percent. The university’s most recent survey (August 20–24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found the Senator’s advantage expanding dramatically to 63-28 percent. Three additional surveys conducted between the two UNH polls showed Markey averaging roughly 55 percent support. 

Both candidates mounted serious fundraising efforts. Sen. Markey reported receipts of just over $8 million, while Rep. Moulton raised more than $6 million.

Though the race has drawn limited national attention, Moulton has campaigned aggressively and adopted more liberal positions to appeal to the party’s sizable leftwing faction.  

Rep. Moulton is a credible challenger, but the Markey legacy, built over decades of electoral success, remains a formidable barrier. Based on available polling and public indicators, Sen. Markey appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow’s primary.

MA-6

With Rep. Moulton running statewide, his northeast Massachusetts 6th Congressional District – stretching from Boston to the New Hampshire border and from Andover eastward to the Atlantic Ocean – is open for the first time since the 1978 election. The contest will probably produce a winner who narrowly lost a congressional primary eight years ago.

Former Andover Selectman and ex‑Biden Administration official Dan Koh appears to hold a discernible advantage over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D-Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and two additional candidates.

According to a wrap‑up Global Strategy Group survey (August 20–23; 400 MA‑6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), Mr. Koh holds a 35-20-12-8% advantage over Nguyen, Beccia, and Belsito, respectively.

In 2018, Mr. Koh lost the 3rd District Democratic primary to Lori Trahan by just 145 votes. Ms. Trahan went on to win the general election and is now unopposed for renomination to a fifth term.

MA-8

The other Massachusetts race of note is the Democratic primary challenge to 13‑term Rep. Lynch in a district with a distinguished political lineage. Two U.S. Presidents and one of the most famous House Speakers have represented this Boston anchored seat.

Before his election to the Senate and later the Presidency, John F. Kennedy served three terms in this congressional district. After leaving the White House, President John Quincy Adams returned to Massachusetts and won eight elections to this district, serving in the House until his death in 1848. Tip O’Neill succeeded Mr. Kennedy, represented the district for 34 years, and reigned for a decade as Speaker of the House.

This year, attorney and former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath has assembled a notable support coalition that includes teachers’ unions, the Boston Globe, and his former boss, ex‑Gov. Deval Patrick. Mr. Roath posted a stronger fundraising total – just under $1.3 million – than Rep. Lynch, who raised $910,000, though the Congressman entered the final week with a $400,000 cash‑on‑hand advantage.

Mr. Roath touts a large grassroots operation and tomorrow will reveal whether his extensive precinct organization can produce a major upset.  

Rep. Lynch is not viewed as one of the more liberal members of the Massachusetts delegation, so the contest bears watching, particularly in a cycle that has already seen 11 Representatives lose renomination. Even so, the odds still favor Rep. Lynch to prevail in his quest for a 14th term.