New survey shows Independent Seth Bodnar leading GOP Kurt Alme for Senate
A new poll conducted for Independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar finds him, for the first time, leading Republican former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme in the open statewide race. While the survey raises methodological questions, its topline results suggest the campaign’s closing weeks could prove more challenging for Republicans than initially expected.
The Concord Public Opinion Partners poll (10/6-8; 405 Montana likely general election voters; live interview & text), conducted for the Bodnar campaign, shows the Independent, an Army Green Beret veteran and former University of Montana president, leading Mr. Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin by a 37-35-13-1% margin.
Controversy has surrounded this race since filing time. Sen. Steve Daines (R) initially filed for re‑election, but withdrew as the filing window closed. Standing with him at the Secretary of State’s office was Mr. Alme, who filed his own candidacy just as the period expired. The maneuver prevented any other Republican from entering the race, effectively rigging the primary for Alme. Unsurprisingly, the move angered GOP leaders and a substantial share of Republican base voters.
According to the Bodnar poll, those feelings persist: Alme’s approval rating stands at a dismal 31:48 favorable/unfavorable, compared to Bodnar’s 41:35. President Trump is also significantly underwater at 41:58 in a state he carried three times by landslide margins. Additionally, the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans by only one point, 37-36%.
Balancing the scales, however, is essential. The poll’s sample size is small for a statewide survey, producing a high 4.87% margin of error. The generic ballot showing Republicans ahead by just one point is difficult to reconcile with Montana’s typical double‑digit GOP victories up and down the ballot.
Republicans hold every statewide office, both congressional seats, and overwhelming majorities in the state legislature. Likewise, President Trump’s 17‑point negative approval rating in a state where he averaged an 18.9‑point winning margin strongly suggests a Democratic‑heavy sample.
Furthermore, the Bodnar campaign poll diverges sharply from the 13 other publicly released surveys of this race. According to the five polling aggregators covering Montana (270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin), the combined average across all 14 surveys shows Alme leading by 12.9 points.
The Democrats’ central challenge remains the presence of their own nominee, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Alani Bankhead. Her refusal to withdraw, preventing Democrats from consolidating behind Bodnar, as they successfully did with Independent candidates in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, paves the way for an Alme plurality victory.
Montana was the party’s strongest opportunity for an Independent coalition strategy, given Bodnar’s relative strength among the other Independent coalition candidates. Ms. Bankhead’s decision to remain in the race after winning the primary eliminated that possibility.
Regardless of this latest Montana Senate poll, Mr. Alme remains the best‑positioned candidate to win the Senate seat in November.
