Expected to be a Somewhat Politically ‘Challenging’ Day in the Grand Canyon State Tomorrow
Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.
Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.
Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.
Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6%
Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.
The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (7/8-9; 1,707 AZ likely Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10% margin. The polling averages similarly find Mr. Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.
For the general election, another close result is expected.
AZ-1 – Open Seat
DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1%
The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Mr. Feeley has been outspent, however.
According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self‑funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R‑Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.
Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan‑Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Ms. Galan‑Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.
AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane
DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5%
This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.
The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Mr. Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.
AZ-5 – Open Seat
DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6%
Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Mr. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual‑oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.
Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self‑funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Mr. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.
Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (7/5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40%, suggesting a toss‑up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (6/29-7/1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27% advantage.
This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well‑positioned for the general election.
AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani
DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5%
Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.
The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson anchored AZ‑6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard‑fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.
