Grijalva likely; Padilla not so much
AZ-7
Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late US Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.
This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.
Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60% vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.
The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on October 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned US Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for December 2.
The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on November 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.
CALIFORNIA
In a report last month, US Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held November 4.
It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20% support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.
The latest California Emerson College Poll (9/15-16; 1,000 CA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.
The ballot test again finds former US Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field, but with only 16% preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18% of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8%). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7% support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3% support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and
12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).
Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.
The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), for the Texas redistricting plan.
The ballot initiative polled at 51% favoring and 34% opposing. While the Yes vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the No position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51% in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.
Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the November 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.
