Close Race Watch

Five highly competitive campaigns set to determine which party will control the House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.  

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data. 

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (6/22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Mr. Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur August 11th – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (6/27–7/1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP.  A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill US Rep. Don Davis (6/22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41% over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39%, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8% margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Ms. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase is therefore an improvement, and her actual standing is likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; 6/29-7/2; 550 PA-7 likely general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43%.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (6/20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Ms. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6%), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.