Grijalva Wins; Ciattarelli Reverses Tide

Expected win in Arizona, but unexpected close race for New Jersey Gov’s seat

AZ-7

As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won last night’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson-anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.

Ms. Grijalva scored what appears to be a 68-30% win in a safely Democratic district before a turnout of approximately 102,000 voters. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean for AZ-7 meaning Rep-Elect Grijalva ran slightly ahead of the district’s vote benchmark. 

The 7th CD houses part of Tucson and then moves south to the Mexican border before stretching west all the way to California. The district is 55% Hispanic and the second strongest Democratic seat in the Grand Canyon State. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60-38%.

When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; October 7 special primary; December 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; November 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.

NJ-Governor

Defying the consistent trend showing US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), a new internal National Research survey reveals a change in momentum.

According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, the National Research results (9/16-18; 600 NJ likely general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45% edge over Ms. Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (9/8-10; 600 NJ likely general election voters) saw Mr. Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45% margin of his Democratic opponent.

Other September polls, and generally all following the June primary, have posted Ms. Sherrill to high single digit leads. The two most recent prior to the latest National Research releases, from Quinnipiac University (9/11-15; 1,238 NJ likely general election voters; live interview) and Quantus Insights (9/2-4; 600 NJ likely general election voters) found Rep. Sherrill holding respective leads of 49-41% and 47-37 percent.

Organizations that track polling have recorded rather different post-primary averages for the race. The Real Clear Politics Polling Archives finds Rep. Sherrill’s cumulative lead at 8.8 percentage points, while two other stat entities see closer splits. The Race to the White House organization calculates an average 7.5% margin, while Decision Desk HQ projects the data result closer to what National Research is finding, giving Ms. Sherrill an average 4.2 percent edge.

It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the November 4 general election.  Additionally, Mr. Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68% win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total. 

For example, the final Emerson College pre-primary poll projected the Ciattarelli preference to be only 44 percent. Here, National Research was closer to the final result, but even their number (54%) fell fourteen points behind the actual tally.

In the 2021 gubernatorial race where Mr. Ciattarelli was viewed as a decided underdog to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) who was seeking re-election, the aggregate polling underestimated the Republican’s strength.

According to the Real Clear Politics archives, six surveys from six different pollsters were released between October 15 and the November 2 election. Gov. Murphy’s average lead was 7.8 percentage points. The actual result was 51-48%. The Trafalgar Group, in their 10/29-31 survey came closest to the final tally, projecting the race at 49-45% in the Democratic Governor’s favor. 

Over the course of the past campaign, eleven 2021 polls were released from seven different pollsters providing Gov. Murphy with an average lead of 11.5 percent. Therefore, the ‘21 polling trend may prove similar to what we are starting to see in the 2025 Sherrill-Ciattarelli contest.

It appears the stage may be set for another closer-than-expected finish in the New Jersey Governor’s campaign.