Krishnamoorthi Expands Lead; TX-18 Data

Advantage points to incumbent in IL-8; Al Green likely to take on winner in new TX district

Illinois Senate

A new survey conducted for a Super PAC supporting Illinois US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) finds the Congressman expanding his previous lead in the open US Senate Democratic primary. Three major candidates are vying for the opportunity of succeeding retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

According to the A to Z poll (conducted for the Impact Fund Super PAC; 8/8-10; 615 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online), Rep. Krishnamoorthi holds a 38-17-7% lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. When those leaning to one of the candidates are added, the Krishnamoorthi advantage expands to 51-28-13 percent.

In June, the GBAO research firm released an Illinois Senate survey (6/5-10; 1,200 IL likely Democratic primary voters) that posted Mr. Krishnamoorthi to a 32-19-14% edge over Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly. 

The northern Illinois Congressman also leads in another critical category, that of fundraising. According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure reports, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had raised at the June 30 reporting deadline almost $12.7 million with a cash-on-hand figure of $11.76 million, far above his two opponents. Ms. Stratton, who entered the race in late April, attracted just over $1 million and held $666,000 in her federal campaign account. Rep. Kelly posted $2.4 million in receipts and $2.2 million cash-on-hand.

It is likely that each candidate will see support coming from outside organizations, and it is a certainty that the Impact Fund will be spending to help Krishnamoorthi.

Ms. Stratton is counting on Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who has endorsed her candidacy, and his allies to come to the table with financial support, but such has yet to materialize. Rep. Kelly will likely have enough in the way of financial backing to be competitive, but the early indicators are certainly pointing Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s way.

The March 17 plurality primary is the actual election in Illinois since it is unlikely the Republican Party will be able to field a credible candidate to compete in a state so solidly in the Democratic camp. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.5D – 39.9R Illinois partisan lean. 

In the last two national elections, President Trump lost in the Land of Lincoln. In 2020, President Biden defeated him 57-41%, and Kamala Harris posted a 54-43% victory margin last November. 
 
TX-18

A new internal campaign poll was released of the TX-18 special election scheduled for November 4. A large field of 32 announced candidates are competing for the opportunity of replacing the late US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The eventual winner, however, may have a very short tenure in Congress.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) released the results of her campaign’s Brilliant Corners survey (7/20-23; 500 TX-18 likely special election voters; live interview) and found Ms. Edwards leading former Miss Universe contestant Carmen Maria Montiel (R), state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), and George Foreman IV (I), 18-12-11-10-6%, respectively.

The results slightly conflict with a University of Houston poll conducted earlier in July (7/9-18; 400 likely TX-18 registered voters from a sample pool of 2,300 Harris County registered voters; SMS text) that found Edwards and Menefee tied with 19%, Montiel and Jones deadlocked at 14% preference, and Foreman posting 4% support.

The concluding analysis suggests that no one even reaching the 20% support plateau translates into a wide open race with much time remaining before voters begin to cast their ballots. Considering the volume of candidates, even if several do not ultimately qualify, it becomes a foregone conclusion that the contest will advance to a runoff election between the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation. After the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the runoff once the primary result becomes official.

Yet, regardless of the special election outcome, it is likely when the new redistricting map passes that the winner will be paired in a new 18th District with US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). 

Therefore, the new congressional member will immediately find him or herself in a primary campaign, likely against Rep. Green, that will be held March 3. Thus, having to compete in a runoff election probably in early January only then be forced to face Rep. Green in a partisan Democratic primary just weeks later will likely be enough to yield the special election winner a very limited congressional tenure.