Battle between Republicans John Fleming and Julia Letlow
Louisiana GOP voters will close the loop on the party’s Senate nomination process tomorrow, as the runoff election will effectively end the marathon campaign for the state’s junior Senate seat. The May primary drew significant national attention when the challengers successfully denied two-term incumbent Bill Cassidy even a runoff ballot line.
Saturday’s runoff appears closer than many expected at the outset. Shortly after the primary, U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start) posted large polling leads over State Treasurer and former U.S. Representative John Fleming. As the race concludes, however, tomorrow’s outcome now appears uncertain.
The Louisiana campaign became a focal point when President Trump renewed his attacks on Sen. Cassidy over Cassidy’s impeachment vote in early 2021. Upon returning to office, the President pledged to settle the score, and his endorsed candidate, Rep. Letlow, initially performed as well as he had hoped.
Mr. Trump publicly backed the Congresswoman early – even before she had formally decided to run for the Senate. Yet Dr. Fleming, also a physician and wealthy businessman who owns or previously owned 38 Subway franchises and developed 168 UPS Stores, is likewise close to Trump.
After serving four terms in the U.S. House and unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 2016, was President Trump appointed Dr. Fleming to several posts: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Health Technology Reform, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and finally White House Deputy Chief of Staff under then-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.
When Dr. Fleming ran for State Treasurer in 2023, he earned endorsements from then-former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA). A Fleming victory tomorrow would therefore bring another Trump ally to the Senate, even though the President supported Rep. Letlow. Mr. Trump believed she would be the stronger candidate against Sen. Cassidy in a Republican runoff, which drove his decision to back her over Fleming.
Early in the runoff cycle, Rep. Letlow appeared to justify that confidence. In late May, she opened polling leads of 52-35% and 52-37% in surveys from Harper Polling and Kaplan Strategies.
The tide began to shift in mid‑June. Dr. Fleming’s decision to invest more than $11 million of his own money into his campaign communications program appears wise. Rep. Letlow’s average 16‑point advantage in early polling shrank to two points (40-38%; BDPC; June 21-22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) and three points (48-45%; Quantas Insights; June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters).
Another poll, from JMC Analytics (conducted for the Fleming campaign; June 21–22; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), even showed Dr. Fleming pulling ahead with a 45–40% lead.
Earlier in the cycle, Dr. Fleming appeared to be maneuvering around Federal Election Commission reporting deadlines by loaning his campaign $2 million before each filing period, then repaying himself afterward, only to re‑loan the funds before the next deadline. Ultimately, however, he invested heavily and strategically. His final $11.5 million personal loan allowed him to build a major spending advantage over Rep. Letlow, whose campaign reported raising $4.3 million through June 7th.
While the Congresswoman may still hold on to win the runoff, it is clear that Dr. Fleming has the momentum heading into Election Day and effectively timed his campaign peak period.
Saturday’s winner will become Louisiana’s next Senator, as Democrats are not positioned to mount a competitive general election challenge. The Republican runoff should therefore be treated as the decisive election for this seat.
Turnout for the May 16th Republican primary was 401,174 individuals. Runoff participation is typically much lower, so the campaign that best identifies and turns out its supporters will prevail tomorrow night. If the late polling is accurate, this race should now be considered a toss‑up.
