ME-Senate: Platner Dominating

The oysterman is besting the state’s former kingpin

A just released University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll (2/12-16; 1,120 ME likely voters; 478 likely Democratic primary voters; 406 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds oysterman Graham Platner crushing Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the 2026 US Senate Democratic primary contest.

According to the ballot test result, Mr. Platner, a Democratic Socialist with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), leads the Governor by a whopping 64-26% margin as the two move toward Maine’s June 9 primary election.

Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term as the state’s chief executive, and the national Democratic leadership recruited her into the Senate race. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the national party leaders certainly did not anticipate the ground support that upstart candidate Platner would be enjoying, at least in the early going.

Controversy arose surrounding Mr. Platner, however, who owns an oyster farm and is an Iraq and Afghan War veteran. Months ago, it became public that he has a chest tattoo that is commonly associated with the Nazis. He denied knowing such, but the incident caused at least one campaign staff member to resign and his campaign’s momentum to temporarily halt. He has, however, weathered the storm and is clearly moving into a dominant primary campaign position.

The polls have been spotty. While UNH has always found Platner way ahead of Mills, only three of the last four published surveys show him leading. The Pan Atlantic Research survey, from a firm that frequently polls the Maine electorate (11/29-12/7; 318 ME likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), found Gov. Mills posting a 47-37% advantage. Overall, however, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives averages, Mr. Platner has an average 20.3% advantage over Governor Mills for the length of their testing period.

On the money front, here too Mr. Platner enjoys a major advantage. Through the 2025 year-end Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, the oysterman had raised $7.9 million as compared to Gov. Mills’ $2.7 million. He also enjoys a cash-on-hand margin of $3.7 million to the Governor’s $1.3 million. In perspective, Gov. Mills joined the race only in October while Mr. Platner initiated his campaign at the beginning of 2025.

The fundraising imbalance has not stopped Gov. Mills from jumping out early with a media buy, however. She largely campaigns against President Trump and promotes her background in her main ad currently running, while Platner contrasts with his “working man” background and pins Mills to the financial elites in his spots. 

The Platner momentum could be attributed to his major media buy currently airing, in which the ads place him working at his oyster farm and showing that he understands what it’s like to make a living through hard work and struggling to keep his head above the financial waters, a situation common to many Mainers. At the end of 2024, the state ranked 29th in household income, with a median average of $76,442. Neighboring Massachusetts, at $104,828 per household, is first in the nation.

The UNH poll also tested Platner and Mills individually against incumbent Susan Collins (R). For her part, the Senator recently made her official candidacy announcement and has raised more money than both Platner and Mills. According to the same FEC reporting period filing, Sen. Collins has accumulated $10.2 million for the campaign and holds $8.0 million in her committee account.

In the UNH poll, Platner posts a 49-38% advantage over Ms. Collins, but the Senator trails Mills only 41-40%. Being behind in polling is nothing new for Sen. Collins. In her 2020 race, which set campaign spending records in the state, she trailed in every published poll during the entire election cycle yet won the election with an eight-point spread over former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D).

A late January Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey, however, (1/20-24; 800 ME likely voters; live interview & text) posted Sen. Collins to a pair of one-point, 45-44%, leads over both Mr. Platner and Gov. Mills. 

It is already clear that Susan Collins’ re-election campaign, as it was in 2020, will be one of the premier US Senate contests particularly considering the Republicans’ need to protect their 53-47 majority. The addition of Mr. Platner as a legitimate contender means this race will command national political media attention in the Democratic primary as well as the general election.