Goal to maneuver Alani Bankhead off the road by Aug. 10?
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced yesterday that it will not fund Montana Senate Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, who won the June 2nd primary with just under 44% of the vote against four opponents.
DSCC executive director Devan Barber said in an interview with the Semafor organization that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”
Part of the reason for the party apparatus’ funding decision is Ms. Bankhead publicly attacking the party structure for not previously supporting her campaign. Obviously, Ms. Bankhead’s strategy of publicly complaining about lacking support did not gain her favor with the party leaders.
The Democrats’ Montana dilemma extends beyond having an obstinate nominee, however. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is running as an Independent and performs significantly better against Republican nominee Kurt Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, than does Bankhead. With both Bankhead and Bodnar on the ballot, Alme holds a clear advantage.
A new poll from Tavern Research illustrates the situation. The Tavern survey (7/23-27; 517 MT likely general election voters; online) finds Mr. Alme leading both Mr. Bodnar and Ms. Bankhead on an isolated ballot test, 49-27-24%.
In a hypothetical one‑on‑one race between Alme and Bodnar, the Republican leads only 51-49% (the absence of undecideds suggests respondents were pushed to choose). When Bankhead is tested head‑to‑head with Alme, the Republican’s advantage expands to 59-41%.
The problem for Bodnar and the Democrats is that Bankhead, as the party nominee, will remain on the ballot regardless of whether she receives institutional party support. Complicating matters further, Libertarian pharmacist Kyle Austin is also a qualified candidate.
In a full ballot test including Alme, Bodnar, Bankhead, and Austin, the Republican leads 49-25-24-2%, respectively. With all four candidates appearing on the ballot in November, the placement structure clearly favors Alme.
This situation mirrors developments in Nebraska, where Democratic leaders prefer to support an Independent rather than their own nominee. In Nebraska, the national Democratic leaders have a compliant Senate nominee and a Democratic state party that is willing to step aside for Independent Dan Osborn.
Cornhusker State Democratic Senate nominee Cindy Burbank last week withdrew from the race before the final ballot placement deadline so her name will not appear on the November ballot.
With both Osborn and Bodnar, these “Independents” would caucus with the Democrats as do Independent US Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), thus explaining the party’s interest in backing the Nebraska and Montana Independents.
In Montana, however, Democratic leadership failed to clear the field for Bodnar. As a result, even though Alme is not yet polling as strongly as Republican strategists would prefer, the inability to consolidate support behind an Independent/Democratic fusion candidate effectively guarantees Alme the six‑year Senate term – even if he falls short of majority support.
Mr. Alme’s standing is likely to strengthen as the general‑election campaign intensifies and voters become more familiar with him.
It is worth recalling that as the filing deadline approached in March, Sen. Steve Daines (R), who had already filed for re‑election, reversed course and withdrew his candidacy. Standing beside him at the Secretary of State’s office was Alme, who filed for the seat within minutes of the deadline.
The maneuver frustrated many GOP and conservative activists who felt deprived of an open Republican primary. Therefore, the Republican nominee must continue to mend intra-party political fences.
