NJ Getting Closer

Tightening contest between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarell (R) for governor’s seat

With Garden State early voting just getting underway in earnest, the three latest publicly released New Jersey Governor polls are all showing a tightening contest between Democratic US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.  

The three polls were conducted between the October 23-27th period from a trio of individual survey research entities. The margin between the two candidates ranged from one to four percentage points. While the margin has closed, Rep. Sherrill continues to post a lead in virtually every survey.

The most recent study, from Quantus Insights (10/26-27; 1,380 NJ likely voters), sees the Sherrill lead at 49-46%. The co/efficient firm (10/23-27; 995 NJ likely voters) projects an even closer 48-47%. Within the same time realm, A2 Insights (10/24-26; 812 NJ likely voters) shows the four-point spread for Sherrill at 51-47%.

These latest three studies show a significant closing of the race when compared with the three surveys released days before. Each of those found Ms. Sherrill holding a much more substantial lead.

The previous set of three polls were conducted during the October 3-20th period, though the final two were fully sampled between October 16-20. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll (10/3-17; 795 NJ likely voters) featured a long sampling period that consumed the predominant portion of the sampling time listed above. The R-E results found Ms. Sherrill topping Mr. Ciattarelli, 50-45%.

The other two polls were from Concord Public Opinion Partners (10/16-18; 605 NJ likely voters) and GQR Research, the latter formerly known as Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research but now has two new principal partners (10/15-20; 1,000 NJ likely voters). While Concord saw a nine-point Sherrill advantage at 49-40%, GQR projected an even wider Sherrill margin at 52-40%. 

Therefore, among the six polls commissioned throughout the preponderance of October’s days, we see a net six-point swing in Ciattarelli’s favor. This suggests the important closing momentum may be turning in his direction.

Additionally, keep in mind that the polling history involving political campaigns with Mr. Ciattarelli on the ballot has woefully underestimated his electoral strength. In his 2021 challenge to Gov. Phil Murphy (D), polling pegged Ciattarelli posting an average of approximately 43% support. His actual vote total was 48.0 percent. 

The 2025 Republican primary election provided even more stark evidence of under-assessing a candidate’s strength. While the polls leading up to the June primary election found Mr. Ciattarelli with highwater final polling marks of 54, 50, and 44% within the five-candidate primary election field, Mr. Ciattarelli’s actual percentage was 67.8, and far beyond what pollsters cumulatively predicted.

Therefore, if past polling history is any indication of what may happen in Tuesday’s final result, we could see a very close finish or even a Ciattarelli upset.

Despite New Jersey being a reliably Democratic state in federal and national elections, a single party has not won three consecutive gubernatorial elections since a pair of Republican Governors together served ten consecutive years in office from 1944-1954.

Should Ms. Sherrill win next week, thus giving the Democrats three consecutive terms counting outgoing Gov. Murphy’s two election wins, she will have broken the alternating streak that has remained intact for 71 years.