Large number of newbies slated for 2026 Congress
The 2026 election cycle has produced major shifts in the open‑seat category, particularly in the House. Although 73 U.S. House seats are currently being contested without an incumbent, the total number of seats that became open at some point during the 119th Congress is actually 83.
Ten of these vacancies were later filled through special elections. While recent cycles since 2012 have all featured large numbers of open seats, none have matched the volume seen this year.
Early media commentary framed the high number of departures as an exodus driven by frustration with Washington and, specifically, with President Trump. The data actually tells a more nuanced story.
Of the original 83 incumbents who are not seeking re‑election, only 32 are retiring from elective politics, and the partisan breakdown is nearly even: 15 Democrats and 17 Republicans. The remaining departures stem from other causes.
Five members have died since the 119th Congress convened on January 3, 2025. Seven resigned, including two who accepted Administration appointments, though one, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, withdrew from consideration for U.S. Attorney General after it became clear he would not be confirmed. The other resignations were tied to controversy or scandal.
Another 28 House members are not leaving politics at all; instead, they chose to run for other offices: 16 for the Senate, 11 for Governor, and one for state Attorney General. Of these 28, only 13 won their party’s nomination. Additionally, 11 incumbents – seven Democrats and four Republicans – were defeated for renomination.
Against this backdrop, one of the most significant developments in the open‑seat category is the sharp rise in competitive and highly competitive races. At the start of the cycle, only three open seats appeared likely to change party hands. As the campaign season has progressed, that number has grown substantially. Today, 18 open seats present realistic opportunities for a party flip, including 12 rated as highly competitive.
Ten of these highly competitive seats are currently held by Republicans, giving Democrats a larger pool of conversion opportunities. This is particularly important given that Democrats need to flip only three Republican seats to reach the 218‑seat threshold for majority control. After redistricting in ten states, the number of potential Democratic flips could rise to twelve.
The Senate also features an unusually large number of open seats. Of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, 16 are open – meaning the Senator elected in 2020 is not seeking re‑election. Twelve of these vacancies are Republican.
Most of the departing Senators are retiring due to age; two are over 80, and all but one would be over 70 at the end of another term. Three Senators left office to accept Administration positions, triggering special elections in Florida and Ohio, which are not normally in cycle this year.
Two Senators, Bill Cassidy (R‑LA) and John Cornyn (R‑TX), were defeated for renomination, and one, Lindsey Graham (R‑SC), passed away. Only one Senator, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, is leaving to run for another office (Governor).
Seven of the open Senate races are highly competitive, with a realistic chance that voters will elect a candidate from the opposite party of the departing incumbent. The most hotly contested open seats are in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Taken together, these House and Senate dynamics mean that at least 99 of the 535 members of the next Congress will be new to Washington compared to those elected in the previous cycle. Such turnover will almost certainly shape the character and priorities of the next legislative session.
