ELECTION RESULTS
Delaware
The First State is the last to nominate its candidates for the November election and did so on September 15th. Louisiana has a jungle election concurrent with the general, but there a candidate scoring majority support is elected in the stand-alone election. For plurality races, the top two finishers advance to a December runoff.
From the Delaware primary results, Sen. Chris Coons (D) will face former state Senator Matt Katz (R), while at-large Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) draws college professor Joe Arminio (R). Both Democrats will have easy runs in the general election.
SENATE
Alaska
Competing Alaska Senate polls were just released and the two provided drastically different results. The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the Last Frontier’s electorate (9/14-17; 799 AK likely general election voters) and found Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) leading former at-large US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) by a two-point margin, 48-46% with all four general election candidates listed on the polling questionnaire.
Another Republican firm, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, also tested the Senate race for AARP (9/8-11; 800 AK likely general election voters; live interview & text) just days before co/efficient began its study. Fabrizio Lee, however, sees Ms. Peltola, who placed first in the August 18th jungle primary, leading Sen. Sullivan 46-41%, yielding a large difference between the two firms.
Kansas
After an August Democratic poll (Global Strategy Group; 8/8-12; 800 KS likely general election voters) found Sen. Roger Marshall (R) trailing Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton (D) by a percentage point, 44-43%, the latest publicly released survey finds the incumbent significantly rebounding. The co/efficient Republican firm released their latest Kansas Senate numbers during the week (9/8-10; 915 KS likely general election voters) and sees Sen. Marshall returning to the lead with a 49-44% split, just beyond the polling margin of error.
Maine
Quantus Insights tested the Maine electorate (9/14-15; ME likely voters) and in the poll result Sen. Susan Collins (R) posted a one-point 48-47% advantage over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D). This is the first of the last five released polls that gives the Senator the advantage. Six years ago, however, Sen. Collins was never ahead in a general election poll yet won by more than eight percentage points.
Minnesota
A new co/efficient Republican poll (9/14-15; 833 Minnesota likely general‑election voters; live interview and text) finds a surprising US Senate result. Despite Minnesota being a reliably Democratic state, the co/efficient ballot test shows Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) posting only a narrow one‑point edge over former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, 43-42%.
The Minnesota Senate race is becoming a legitimately competitive open seat contest. Ms. Tafoya is well known in the state through her years of covering Minnesota sports before moving to the national arena and posts a stronger favorability rating than Lt. Gov. Flanagan. According to the co/efficient poll, Tafoya’s positive‑to‑negative ratio is 36:32, while Flanagan is significantly underwater at 33:42. SurveyUSA found similar numbers in their new poll (9/9-14; 654 MN likely general election voters). The S-USA ballot test projects Lt. Gov. Flanagan and Ms. Tafoya tied at 42% apiece.
Nebraska
We see another set of divergent polls released for the Nebraska Senate race. In this contest, Independent Dan Osborn, with the support of the Democratic Party, is challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Two firms, Wedgewood Polls and SurveyUSA, were in the field on consecutive days with Wedgewood beginning their poll the day after S-USA finished.
Wedgewood (8/14-16; 500 NE likely general election voters) posts Sen. Ricketts to a 52-48% advantage, his first polling lead since the May primary. Just before Wedgewood sampled the state, S-USA (9/8-13; 503 NE likely general election voters) posted Mr. Osborn to a 46-42% advantage. The 2024 race between Mr. Osborn and Sen. Deb Fischer (R) demonstrated a similar polling pattern. In the end, Sen. Fischer recorded a six-point win, and a similar result should be expected in the Ricketts-Osborn contest.
New Hampshire
The co/efficient polling firm tested the New Hampshire electorate (9/9-11; 958 NH likely general election voters; live interview & text) and finds US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46% apiece on the questionnaire’s ballot test. This poll is further evidence that the New Hampshire race is going to be a tough fight all the way to the political finish line on November 3rd.
South Dakota
Public Policy Polling released their latest South Dakota survey (9/8-9; 629 SD registered voters; live interview & text) and suggests that the Democrats’ gambit in getting their nominee to withdraw so the party could officially back Independent Brian Bengs appears to be bearing fruit. The PPP ballot test finds Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Mr. Bengs, 45-42%. This is the second poll within a month to suggest this race could be close. While such may be the case now, Sen. Rounds is expected to pull away in at least the final three campaign weeks to secure victory for a third term.
HOUSE
CA-34
Veteran US Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) again faces a Democratic opponent in the general election, a familiar dynamic in the 34th District. The 2026 contest marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which two Democrats have advanced from the top‑two primary. This year his opponent is anthropologist Angela Gonzales‑Torres. In the primary, Mr. Gomez finished ahead of Ms. Gonzales‑Torres, 46.0 percent to 30.7 percent. Yet, a new survey casts the general election in a different light. A just‑completed Upswing Research poll (Sept. 1-5; 403 CA‑34 likely voters) shows Ms. Gonzales‑Torres leading Rep. Gomez 41-38 percent.
FL-27
A newly released survey confirms a local August poll that predicts a toss-up race for three-term US Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami). Tulchin Research, polling for the Democratic House Majority PAC (9/8-13; 600 FL-27 likely general election voters), projects that Rep. Salazar and former news anchor Elliott Rodriguez (D) are embattled in a one-point race with the Congresswoman holding a bare 47-46% edge. In late August, noted Florida pollster Bendixen & Amandi International (8/25-30; 600 FL-27 likely general election voters) found nearly the identical result that Tulchin sees in September. The Bendixen totals found the Congresswoman and Mr. Elliott locked in a 45-45% tie.
MT-1
Retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leaves a budding competitive western Montana race in his wake. A new survey from Public Policy Polling (9/9-10; 536 MT-1 registered voters; live interview & text) sees smoke jumper and labor union organizer Sam Forstag (D) pulling into a lead over radio talk show host and Afghan War veteran Aaron Flint (R) with a 45-43% split. This means the race is a virtual tie and is falling into the highly competitive realm as are many races around the country.
The western Montana 1st District is more Democratic than the state’s expansive eastern seat. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.7R – 46.9D partisan lean. Therefore, the tight open seat poll with relatively unfamiliar candidates is not particularly surprising. Expect the Republicans to make a major financial move here in a district they cannot afford to lose.
NJ-7
Likely as a result of his prolonged absence from the House with little in the way of public explanation, a recently released a StimSight Research poll (9/9-12; 498 NJ-7 likely general election voters) finds US Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) trailing his Democratic challenger, businesswoman and Air National Guard officer Rebecca Bennett by a 47-42% margin. The 7th District race is certainly a top national Democratic conversion opportunity.
NC-1
North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election, and the legislature turned a lean Democratic 1st District into a seat that leans Republican. A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the CD may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (9/8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) leading 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout 50-43%, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (6/22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41% spread. NC-1 is a must-win for the GOP.
GOVERNOR
Kansas
The co/efficient Kansas poll that covered the US Senate race (see Kansas above) also queried respondents about the state’s open Governor’s race. The survey (9/8-10; 915 KS likely general election voters) found state Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) opening a significant 51-43% lead over state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park). Incumbent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited this year, and Republicans strive to return the Governor’s chair to their party.
Minnesota
In the previously mentioned co/efficient poll (see Minnesota Senate; 9/14-15; 833 Minnesota likely general‑election voters; live interview and text), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) leads the gubernatorial race over state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring) by only a 47-45% margin. This is obviously the closest poll we have seen in this gubernatorial race. Sen. Klobuchar still must be considered the favorite to defeat Ms. DeMuth, but the race appears to be getting more interesting.
The SurveyUSA Minnesota poll (9/9-14; 654 MN likely general election voters), however, arrived at a different result thus placing Sen. Klobuchar in a stronger position. This ballot test projects a 47-40% split in the Senator’s favor.
Nebraska
As covered in the Nebraska Senate capsule above, Wedgewood Polls also asked questions about the Governor’s race while surveying the state. The Wedgewood study (8/14-16; 500 NE likely general election voters) for what was thought to be a close race finds Gov. Jim Pillen (R) now opening a strong lead. The Wedgewood ballot test finds the Governor leading former state Senator Lynne Walz, whose husband is a cousin to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), by a 53-36% clip.
This result is much different than Public Policy Polling’s early September poll (9/1-2; 559 NE likely general election voters; live interview & text) that found the two candidates separated by only a single percentage point – Gov. Pillen holding a small 32-31% edge.
New Hampshire
The above-mentioned co/efficient poll (9/9-11; 958 NH likely general election voters; live interview & text) also tested the Granite State’s Governor’s race featuring incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) and former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D). The latest ballot test provides more good news for Gov. Ayotte because she is posted to a major 55-34% advantage.
After being defeated for re-election to the US Senate in 2018, Ms. Ayotte returned to capture the Governor’s office in 2024. New Hampshire is one of two states, Vermont being the other, where the Governors serve only two-year terms.
STATE AND LOCAL
Chicago
Despite very low approval ratings, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) announced that he will seek re-election next year. He promises to face a very active Democratic field that already includes Secretary of State and former US Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias, state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and US Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Chicago). Expect this 2027 contest to draw national attention.
