PRIMARY RESULTS
GA-13 Special Election
In April, twelve‑term U.S. Representative David Scott (D‑Atlanta), the brother‑in‑law of legendary Atlanta Braves star Hank Aaron, passed away at age 80, leaving Georgia’s Atlanta‑area 13th District vacant. Before his service in Congress, Scott served five terms in the state Senate and four in the Georgia House of Representatives.
In Tuesday’s special election to fill the remainder of the current term, the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott (D), placed first among three Democratic and two Republican candidates. She fell short of the 50% threshold to win outright, receiving 46%, which sends her and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 37%, to an August 25th special general election.
State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won the regular Democratic primary and is the party’s nominee for the November general election. Given the district’s strong Democratic lean, Clark will win the seat in November. She chose not to run in the special election, knowing that she will be sworn into office when the 120th Congress convenes in January. Ms. Clark is a prohibitive favorite over Republican nominee Jonathan Chavez.
South Dakota Gubernatorial Runoff
In the Mount Rushmore State’s Republican gubernatorial runoff, Gov. Larry Rhoden secured the 2026 GOP nomination with a decisive 71–29% victory over businessman Toby Doeden.
In the June 2nd primary, Mr. Doeden was a surprise first‑place finisher, while Gov. Rhoden narrowly edged at‑large U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R‑Mitchell) for second place and the right to advance to the runoff. Under South Dakota law, a runoff between the top two finishers is required if no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote. In the primary, Doeden claimed 30.6%, followed by Rhoden at 25.2%, Johnson at 23.4%, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen at 20.8%.
Now, as the official Republican nominee, Gov. Rhoden is well positioned for November and will easily defeat former state Senator Dan Ahlers (D) to win the Governorship in his own right.
SENATE
Idaho
We now see another Senate race where the Democratic nominee has dropped out to pave the way for an Independent to form a coalition opposite a Republican incumbent. Earlier this month, as expected, Nebraska Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank ended her campaign and endorsed Independent Dan Osborn against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).
Late this week, Idaho Democratic nominee David Roth ended his campaign yielding to Independent Todd Achilles who at least one past poll showed would run close to veteran Sen. Jim Risch (R).
Though the post-primary poll from The Bullfinch Group (5/29-6/1; 774 ID likely general election voters) found that the sampling universe would back Sen. Risch with only a 40-36% margin if he were alone against Mr. Achilles, the incumbent still maintains a massive $3.5 million to $200,000 cash-on-hand advantage against the Independent. This, along with Idaho’s strong Republican voting history, continue to make Sen. Risch the strong favorite for victory in November.
Michigan
A new Tavern Research poll (7/26-27; 914 MI likely Democratic primary voters) sees marked improvement for ex-Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed in his Democratic primary battle with US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). The new ballot test shows Mr. El-Sayed posting a 46-36% advantage over Rep. Stevens despite the state Democratic leadership getting behind her campaign. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), who dropped out of the race in early July, but whose name remains on the ballot, still draws 4% support.
In early July, the Tavern Research polling result posted El-Sayed to only a 41-38% lead over Rep. Stevens with Sen. McMorrow drawing 5 percent preference. The fast-approaching Michigan primary is next Tuesday, August 4th.
Minnesota
Public Policy Polling released the most recent Minnesota Senate Democratic primary survey (7/23-24; 672 MN likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) that posts Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who has Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) support along with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), to a 46-32% advantage over US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).
The PPP poll shows a much different result than the latest Survey USA study, conducted for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (7/15-20; 513 MN Democratic Farm Labor Party likely voters), about which we reported last week. The S-USA poll found the two candidates tied at 40-40%. The Minnesota primary is August 11th. The Democratic winner will probably face former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya who has a large lead in Republican nomination polling. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring.
Montana
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced during the week that it will not fund Montana Senate Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, who won the June 2nd primary with just under 44% of the vote against four opponents.
DSCC executive director Devan Barber said in an interview with the Semafor organization that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.” Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is running as an Independent and performs significantly better against Republican nominee Kurt Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, than does Bankhead. With both Bankhead and Bodnar on the ballot, Alme holds a clear advantage.
A new poll from Tavern Research illustrates the situation. The Tavern survey (7/23-27; 517 MT likely general election voters; online) finds Mr. Alme leading both Mr. Bodnar and Ms. Bankhead on an isolated ballot test, 49-27-24%.
South Carolina
Candidate filing closed for the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary, and no fewer than eight individuals filed to challenge appointed Sen. Darline Graham despite her carrying President Trump’s endorsement.
The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham earlier this month required state Republican leaders to schedule a quick special election to replace him on the ballot. The primary will be held Tuesday, August 11th. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will advance to an August 25th runoff.
The headline challengers are two sitting U.S. House members: Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who finished a distant third in June’s gubernatorial primary, and Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach).
Other notable entrants include former Myrtle Beach Mayor and ex‑City Councilman Mark McBride – an unwelcome development for Rep. Fry, since McBride is likely to siphon votes from the northeastern South Carolina region – and wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, who drew 29% in his June primary challenge to Lindsey Graham. Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford, who considered entering the 1st District regular primary but ultimately did not, also filed for the Senate special. The large field suggests that the top two finishers will advance to the runoff election.
HOUSE
CA-48
As expected, a new poll shows a close race in San Diego and Riverside counties new 48th Congressional District. As an open seat because US Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is retiring, Lake Research Partners (D) tested the electorate (7/9-14; 500 CA-48 likely general election voters with a 100 person over-sample of No Party Preference voters; live interview and text) and sees San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert (D) edging San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) by a two-point, 48-46% spread. Expect this race to be close and therefore take weeks to determine under California’s elongated counting system.
CO-5
The Global Strategy Group, polling for the Jessica Killin campaign (7/16-21; 450 CO-5 likely general election voters; live interview) returns a closer than expected ballot test in what should be a safely Republican Colorado Springs anchored congressional district. The ballot test finds freshman Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs) leading Ms. Killin, a former Biden White House aide, by only a 45-44% split. With Colorado moving decidedly to the political left, even a formerly reliable Republican district such as this is hosting a competitive campaign.
IA-1
For the second time in a month, a publicly released poll finds three-term US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClair) trailing her three-time opponent, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D). The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center research partnership tested the IA-1 electorate (7/13-16; 705 IA-1 likely general election voters) and sees the challenger leading Rep. Miller-Meeks by a 40-35% margin. In June, Public Policy Polling (6/18-19; 555 IA-1 voters; text & live interview) saw a similar result: Bohannan leading 43-39%.
Rep. Miller-Meeks first won her seat in 2020 with a six-vote victory margin. In 2024, the battle between Ms. Bohannan and the Congresswoman came down to a 799-vote spread, making the race the third closest in the nation. Another close race is expected this year. Rep. Miller-Meeks is clearly one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the 2026 election cycle.
VA-2
The rematch from 2022 between US Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and former US Rep. Elaine Luria (D) was again expected to be close and a new survey verifies such a prognostication. The most recent poll, from Tulchin Research (7/9-13; 700 VA-2 likely general election votes) sees the two women tied a 47% preference. Count on this race going down to the wire on November 3rd.
GOVERNOR
Connecticut
A Change Research poll for the Impact CT political action committee (7/22-23; 859 CT likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows Gov. Ned Lamont in unsurprisingly strong shape in his bid for a third term. The Impact CT poll of Democratic primary voters found the Governor leading Deputy state House Speaker Josh Elliott (D-Hamden) by a 48-27% clip. Gov. Lamont is obviously favored in the August 11th Democratic primary and for the general election in November.
New York
A surprising poll is coming from a Super PAC supporting Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. The survey, from Red Oak Strategic (7/7-12; 2,000 NY registered voters; online), sees Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leading Mr. Blakeman by only a 47-43% clip. Should we see confirming future results of this type of spread, the race could become competitive as we turn toward political prime time after Labor Day.
Wisconsin
A State Navigate poll (7/23-26; 1,085 WI likely Democratic primary voters; online & text) finds that Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez leaving the race and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley re-entering after he had suspended his campaign several months ago has had little effect upon state Rep. Francesca Hong’s (D-Madison) statewide lead. The State Navigate ballot test found Ms. Hong, a Democratic Socialist candidate, leading Mr. Crowley and former Lt. Governor and 2022 US Senate nominee Mandela Barnes by a 44-15-14% margin as the candidates turn into the home stretch for the August 11th Wisconsin primary.
Marquette University Law School, a regular Wisconsin pollster, also went in the field and found results similar to State Navigate’s. Their survey (7/22-27; 407 WI likely Democratic primary voters including 254 voters previously interviewed; live interview) finds Ms. Hong’s lead at 46% with Mr. Barnes attracting 21% preference and Mr. Crowley only polling at 11% support.
The eventual party nominee, likely Rep. Hong, will face US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), the consensus GOP candidate. Gov. Tony Evers (D), who endorsed Mr. Crowley, is not seeking a third term.
