PRIMARY RESULTS
Six states conducted primaries during the week, and for the second consecutive time in a seven-day period, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate.
Another veteran House member was denied renomination, and the special South Carolina US Senate Republican primary to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) on the general election ballot advanced to a runoff election as most expected. Additionally, former Congressman Jerry Carl is expected to return to the House next year after recording an open seat Republican primary victory in southwestern Alabama.
A total of 43 states has completed their primaries. Voters in another three states, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, will vote on August 18th, and four states will hold September primaries: Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Louisiana will finish their US House nomination process concurrently with the general election on November 3rd. If no candidate receives majority support in a particular election, the top two finishers will advance to an early December runoff. The Senate primary was held on May 16th.
AL-1
Former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Mr. Carl scored a commanding 75% victory in the Republican primary. With a partisan lean of 61.4R – 37.7D (Dave’s Redistricting App), former Rep. Carl has already cleared his most difficult hurdle in returning to Congress.
AL-2
In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.
CT-1
Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Mr. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th U.S. House incumbent to lose renomination this year and seventh Democrat.
HI-1
Confounding polling that suggested veteran Hawaii US Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) could lose his renomination campaign the Congressman instead posted a decisive 60-36% win last Saturday night. He defeated state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Honolulu) and two others. Rep. Case now becomes the prohibitive favorite for November against the new Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who was unopposed in his primary.
Minnesota
The Land of 10,000 Lakes featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated U.S. Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40% margin. Ms. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.
South Carolina
In South Carolina’s high‑profile special Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an August 25th Republican runoff election. Ms. Graham recorded only 33% of the vote, meaning 67% of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.
Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25%. U.S. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20% but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.
Wisconsin
In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected landslide victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. State Representative Francesca Hong (D-Madison) lost the Wisconsin Democratic primary even though she was projected as a clear favorite. On August 4th in Michigan, former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Services Department director Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic Senate opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.
In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Ms. Hong in a close finish. Mr. Crowley had earlier suspended his campaign but at the behest of retiring Gov. Tony Evers got back into the race, and with the Governor’s endorsement, claimed about a 3,800-vote victory. On the Republican side, consensus candidate Tom Tiffany, the state’s 7th District Republican Congressman, garnered 95% of the GOP vote to officially become the party nominee. A close vote is expected in November.
WI-3
In the politically marginal 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49% contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.
WI-7
In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of U.S. Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.
SENATE
Alaska
The state’s top four jungle primary system will not prove exciting on Tuesday as Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) and former at-large US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) will easily advance to the general election along with two minor candidates. Though polling is currently showing a close general election battle, it is probable that the Senator will pull away in the final two weeks and win a convincing victory. The bigger question on the Alaska ballot might be whether this will be the final year of the top four primary. A ballot proposition is before the voters to repeal the system and return to the traditional partisan primary format.
Florida
Tuesday’s primary will test appointed Sen. Ashley Moody’s (R) strength before the voters. She was twice elected Attorney General and appointed to the Senate in 2025 when then-Senator Marco Rubio (R) resigned to become Secretary of State. The Democrats are likely to nominate retired Army Lt. Colonel and ex-National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman, whose brother, Eugene Vindman, is a Virginia Democratic Congressman. Sen. Moody should record a strong GOP primary victory against minor competition and will be favored to win the general election.
Michigan
The first post-primary Michigan Senate poll was released, and the Fox News poll of 1,006 MI registered voters during the August 6-10 period finds former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) leading the new Democratic nominee, former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Services Department director Abdul El-Sayed by a 51-47% margin. Considering that Republicans typically outperform their polling numbers in the Wolverine State, it is reasonable to presume that Mr. Rogers’ advantage might be as much as two percentage points higher.
HOUSE
CA-14
The special election to fill the vacant San Francisco East Bay Area 14th District from which US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned will be filled on August 18th. State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) director Melissa Hernandez (D), the former mayor of Dublin, CA, are squaring-off in a runoff after the two advanced from the special primary.
Sen. Wahab is favored, but outside spending heavily favors Ms. Hernandez, so in a low turnout stand-alone election, an upset is possible. Regardless of the outcome, the pair will both advance to the regular general election for the full term because they finished first and second in the regular primary election held on June 2nd.
Florida
Tuesday’s primary will provide us the first test result of the new Florida redistricting map that is designed to yield Republicans a four-seat gain in the Sunshine State delegation.
The key districts to watch are the open 2nd District where incumbent Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) is retiring; the 7th where embattled incumbent Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) is fighting attacks regarding his treatment of women; the 9th and 14th where Republicans will choose very competitive general election nominees against Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) and Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) in districts designed to flip to the GOP; the 20th where Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) is attempting to win a majority minority district; the new 22nd, an open seat that stretches from Ft. Lauderdale to the Gulf of America and designed to swing toward Republicans, and the 25th where Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) will face a difficult general election in another CD designed to flip to the Republicans.
OH-7
Defying calls from prominent Republicans for him to withdraw from his re-election campaign, two-term US Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) finds himself trailing Democrat Brian Poindexter in a new poll despite more people saying they would vote for a Republican candidate over a Democrat.
In a Bedrock Polling survey for the Iron Workers International’s Next 50 Super PAC (8/7-10; 866 OH-7 likely general election voters; text and online) Mr. Poindexter leads Congressman Miller 43-35% on the ballot test. His favorability index registers a poor 28:52% favorable versus unfavorable score.
WY-AL
While at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) appears as a lock to succeed retiring US Senator Cynthia Lummis (R), the open House election features a crowded Republican field. The GOP primary is almost certain to produce the next House member, hence the interest in the August 18th party primary. The key participants among the nine-person field are businessman Steve Friess, son of the late Republican mega-donor and ex-gubernatorial candidate Foster Friess, Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and several sitting and former state legislators. The Republican winner will succeed Ms. Hageman in the US House.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
The coming open gubernatorial primary features 17 candidates vying to secure one of four general election positions. Former state Sen. Tom Begich, one of only two Democrats on the ballot, is favored to claim one of the positions. Twelve Republicans are competing for the other three positions, and at least two should go to the party’s candidates. Three Independents are competing including former Gov. Bill Walker. Some combination of four candidates will advance, and then the real race to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) will begin.
Florida
Tuesday’s Sunshine State primary features an open Governor’s race as the current incumbent, Ron DeSantis (R), is ineligible to seek a third term. A total of 11 candidates are on the ballot, but the polling favorite for the entire length of the primary election cycle is Trump endorsed US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples). It is probable that he will advance into the general election against former Republican and Independent Congressman David Jolly, who is now a Democrat.
Wyoming
The Equality State primary is Tuesday, and the open Republican gubernatorial primary is likely between state Senator and former state House Speaker Eric Barlow (R-Green River) and Superintendent of Public Instruction Megen Degenfelder. In a state that performed as Donald Trump’s best in all three of his elections, winning the Republican primary is tantamount to claiming the general election.
The only public poll conducted of the race came in July from Pulse Decision Science. The survey (7/18-20; 400 WY likely Republican primary voters) found Sen. Barlow leading Ms. Degenfelder, who carries President Trump’s endorsement, and retired Marine Corps Colonel Brent Bien by a 42-19-14% spread. Negative ads that attack both Barlow and Degenfelder have been prevalent, but it remains to be seen if they will make this race close. The winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Mark Gordon (R).
