SENATE
Illinois
Public Policy Polling released a new poll of the Illinois Democratic Senate primary (12/6-8; 667 IL likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) and again we see US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) holding a substantial advantage. In this survey, Rep. Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) by a 32-20-9% margin.
Last week, Change Research released their poll (12/4-8; 1,007 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online) and while the Krishnamoorthi-Stratton-Kelly order was consistent with the PPP result, the margin was much different. In the Change poll, Krishnamoorthi led by a more robust 42-14-7% margin. With a huge resource advantage, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has become the clear favorite to win the Democratic Senate nomination on March 17. The eventual Democratic nominee will then become a prohibitive favorite to succeed retiring Senator Dick Durbin (D).
Ohio
Emerson College released the results of their new Ohio statewide poll (12/6-8; 850 OH likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) during the week. The US Senate general election results found appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) leading former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by a slight 49-46% spread.
Sen. Husted, then-the state’s sitting Lt. Governor and former Secretary of State, replaced then-Sen. J.D. Vance who was, of course, elected Vice President. Sen. Husted must defeat ex-Sen. Brown in the 2026 election to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a six-year term in 2028.
Texas
Texas Southern University conducted the first post-candidate filing poll of the Texas US Senate Democratic primary. The survey result (12/9-11; 1,600 TX likely Democratic primary voters; online) found US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leading state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), by a 51-43% clip. We can expect a hotly contested Democratic primary here that will likely be decided on March 3. Since the race now features just two major candidates, it is probable that the first place finisher will attract majority support, thus eliminating the need for a runoff election.
HOUSE
ME-2
Pan Atlantic Research (11/29-12/7; 387 ME-2 likely general election voters; text & online) questioned voters in the state’s competitive open 2nd Congressional District as part of their statewide poll. The results found ex-Gov. Paul LePage (R) claiming a small 44-43% edge over state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), who has yet to officially become a candidate. Sen. Baldacci’s brother, John Baldacci, served as the 2nd District Congressman before winning two terms as Maine’s Governor.
Former state Senate President Troy Jackson says he will bypass running in the 2nd CD in order to continue his campaign for Governor. The Jackson comment suggests that Sen. Baldacci will soon join the congressional race. The Senator previously said he would only run for Congress if Mr. Jackson chose not to enter the 2nd District campaign. Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is not seeking a fifth term.
MA-5
Waltham City Councilor Jonathan Paz announced a Democratic primary challenge to House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Revere), in yet another race that will feature nomination opposition to a leading Democratic incumbent. Rep. Clark will be favored for renomination, but these types of challenges around the country are worth monitoring. The Massachusetts primary is not until September 1, so this race has a long maturation period.
MI-4
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) made official his plans to seek re-election next year. There had been speculation that he would retire since he wanted to run for the Senate, but the Republican leadership thwarted his quest. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for MI-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D suggesting this will again be a competitive race with Rep. Huizenga viewed as the favorite. His chief Democratic opponent appears to be state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo). Rep. Huizenga was first elected to the House in 2010. In 2024, he defeated Democrat Jessica Swartz 55-43 percent.
MS-2
Attorney Evan Turnage announced a Democratic primary challenge to veteran US Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) in the Mississippi Delta congressional district. Mr. Turnage, 33 years of age, was quoted as saying (to the Mississippi Today online news site per The Down Ballot political blog), “…this is the poorest district in the poorest state in the country. It was that way when I was 1-year old, when Congressman Thompson was first elected, and it remains that way today. We need real plans for real change.” We can add this race to the list of serious Democratic primary challenges developing around the country.
NC-1
Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R), who earlier loaned his congressional campaign $2 million, decided this week to end his candidacy. The move is surprising since the 1st District was the focal point of the most recent redistricting plan and is now likely to flip away from two-term Democratic incumbent Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).
Late in the week Laurie Buckhout, who had endorsed Roberson, decided she would make a comeback and announced her own candidacy. She had accepted a Department of Defense position from the Trump Administration but will now re-enter the 1st District race. In 2024, as the Republican congressional nominee, Ms. Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a razor-thin 49.5 – 48.7% re-election margin in the more Democratic District 1 version.
At this point, with candidate filing now closing, the announced Republican candidates in addition to Ms. Buckhout are Carteret Count Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point), Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell. For his part, Rep. Davis, saddled with what is now an unfavorable district, has announced he will seek re-election. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3. In order to avoid a runoff, the first-place finisher must exceed the 30% vote threshold.
TX-18
A new Lake Partners Research survey (12/8-14; 437 TX-18 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the January 31st special runoff election to replace the late US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) finds Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee leading former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards by a 43-30% count. Regardless of the special election outcome, both Mr. Menefee and Ms. Edwards will then engage in a March 3 regular election primary against US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a new 18th District under the 2025 congressional map.
WA-4
Central Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) announced this week that he will not seek a seventh term next year. Rep. Newhouse’s retirement decision increases the House open seat count to 48. Mr. Newhouse was originally elected to Congress in 2014 after serving as Director of the Washington Department of Agriculture. His career in electoral politics began with winning a seat in the state House of Representatives in 2002, where he served three-plus terms before being appointed to the agriculture position.
As one of just ten Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6th situation at the Capitol, Mr. Newhouse faced pressure from Republican contenders in both the 2022 and 2024 elections to the point where he averaged just 24.5% in the two multi-candidate jungle primaries. Of the group of ten House Republicans, only Rep. Newhouse and California Congressman David Valadao (R-Hanford) remain in office.
GOVERNOR
Florida
Lt. Governor Jay Collins (R), who Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) recently appointed to replace resigned Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez (R), is considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. A newly released poll suggested he would not fare particularly well against the leading candidate for the GOP nomination, US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples).
A Public Opinion Strategies poll, conducted for the Florida Fighters organization (12/7-11; 700 FL likely primary voters; live interview) found Rep. Donalds leading Lt. Gov. Collins by a strong 40-13 percent clip. The Florida primary has a long cycle, however. The nomination election is scheduled for August 18.
Public Policy Polling released a survey (conducted for the Moving Florida Forward organization; 12/2-3; 616 FL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) of the Democratic primary. They see the top two candidates, former Republican Congressman David Jolly and Jerry Demings, the Orange County Executive and former Sheriff and husband of ex-Congresswoman Val Demings, tied at 22% preference.
New York
Siena College (12/8-12; 801 NY registered voters; live interview & online) released the results of their latest statewide New York survey, and the totals find Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) re-establishing a strong lead over both US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R). Against Stefanik, Siena sees the Governor leading 49-30%. If Mr. Blakeman were the GOP nominee, he would trail Ms. Hochul, 50-25 percent. Among the 393 Democratic primary voters tested, Gov. Hochul leads Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, 56-13% in their battle for the party nomination.
Ohio
The above-mentioned Emerson College poll (12/6-8; 850 OH likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds former Ohio Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) posting a slight 46-45% lead over businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R). The result suggests the two are in a dead heat tie. Ms. Acton appears assured of the Democratic nomination now that former US Representative and ex-presidential and US Senate candidate Tim Ryan announced that he would not run for Governor. Mr. Ramaswamy is also virtually unopposed on the Republican side and is the officially endorsed GOP candidate.
Texas
Texas Southern University conducted the aforementioned Texas Democratic primary poll (12/9-11; 1,600 TX likely Democratic primary voters; online). In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) posts a substantial 41-6-5-3% lead over investment company CEO Andrew White, son of the late former Gov. Mark White, ex-Congressman Chris Bell, and rancher Bobby Cole. It is possible that this race will close before the March 3 primary and that Rep. Hinojosa will advance to a runoff election against one of the other contenders.
Wisconsin
Businessman Eric Hovde (R), who held Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) to a re-election victory margin of less than one percentage point last year, announced that he will not become a gubernatorial candidate. At this point, the open Republican nomination race features US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) and Washington County Executive Joe Schoemann. Democrats have a crowded field with at least eight credible contenders vying for the party nomination. Gov. Tony Evers (D) chose not to run for a third term. The Wisconsin primary is scheduled for August 11.
STATE AND LOCAL
Tarrant County, TX
At the close of candidate filing last week, US Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who appeared likely to file for the 30th Congressional District, surprisingly instead joined the Tarrant County Judge (Executive) race. This week, Mr. Veasey dropped his bid, meaning he will not be on the ballot for any office in 2026.
