SENATE
Kentucky
It appears we will see a re-match in the Kentucky Senate Democratic primary. In 2020, retired Marine Corps officer Amy McGrath, who would lose the general election to Sen. Mitch McConnell by just under 20 points, defeated then-state Rep. Charles Booker by just three percentage points in the party primary. In October, Ms. McGrath announced that she will return to compete in the open 2026 Senate race now that Sen. McConnell is retiring. This week, Mr. Booker declared that he, too, will return and we can expect another competitive Democratic primary.
On the Republican side, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and seven-term US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are competing for the party nomination. The Republicans are favored to hold the open seat in the general election.
Maine
A new Maine US Senate Democratic primary poll finds Gov. Janet Mills trailing businessman Graham Platner by an astonishing 20 points. The Z to A Research firm (11/14-18; 845 ME likely Democratic primary voters) sees Mr. Platner posting a 58-38% lead over the state’s sitting two-term Governor.
Polls have been radically inconsistent for this nomination campaign. Five different pollsters tested the Maine Democratic electorate from mid-October to late November, and while four of the five found Mr. Platner leading, his advantage range is very wide. The polls stretch from a Mills five-point lead to Platner up 34 points. The others project Platner leads of 2, and 21 points.
Michigan
A recently released Mitchell Research & Communications poll (11/18-21; 616 MI likely general election voters) projects Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers leading US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) 42-40%.
Against the other potential Democratic nominees, Mr. Rogers’ lead is larger. Opposite state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) the Rogers’ edge is 44-38%. If former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed wins the Democratic nomination, Mr. Rogers would outpoll him, 41-38 percent. These numbers again suggest that the Michigan Senate race will be one of the top contests in the 2026 midterm election cycle.
Virginia
Sen. Mark Warner (D), as expected, announced during the week that he will seek a fourth term next year. The surprising part of his statement is that the next term will be his last, already saying he will not seek re-election in 2032. The Senator said he wanted to begin paving the way for ‘transferring the responsibility.’ Sen. Warner is a prohibitive favorite for re-election in 2026. He was first elected in 2008 after serving as Virginia’s Governor.
HOUSE
Indiana Redistricting
The Indiana state Senate will convene on December 8 to consider passing a new congressional redistricting map, one that ostensibly would turn the 7R-2D current map into a 9R-0D plan. The state Senate leadership has not been in favor of moving a new map but has at least changed plans in order to debate the idea. Republicans have a 40-10 majority in the Senate. They would need 26 votes for approval.
North Carolina Redistricting
A federal three-judge panel, in a unanimous vote, rejected the legal challenge to the new North Carolina congressional map, meaning the new version will be in use for the 2026 election. The North Carolina candidate filing deadline is December 19. The big change is making Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) eastern North Carolina seat more Republican.
Upon seeing the court’s decision, Rep. Davis announced that he will seek re-election in the new 1st District even though the new constituency would have voted 55-44% for President Trump. In 2024, Rep. Davis scored only a 49.5 – 47.8% re-election victory margin. In the new 1st District, Rep. Davis will be considered an underdog.
MA-7
After publicly commenting that she was considering entering the 2026 Democratic US Senate primary to challenge incumbent Ed Markey, US Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) announced instead that she will seek re-election next year in her 7th Congressional District. Ms. Pressley will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election. US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), however, is challenging Sen. Markey in what promises to be a competitive Democratic primary to be decided on September 1.
NJ-11
Candidate filing has closed for the February 5 special primary elections, which is the first step in replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) who resigned from the House soon after her statewide victory in early November.
A total of 13 Democrats filed for the reliably Democratic congressional seat. Among them are former US Rep. Tom Malinowski and ex-Lt. Governor Tahesha Way. Five of the candidates are sitting local officials. Only one Republican filed: Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway. The eventual Democratic nominee will be heavily favored to win the April 16 special general election.
PA-10
It appears we will again see a very competitive 2026 general election between US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) and former news reporter Janelle Stenson (D). A new survey from the Democratic research firm Public Policy Polling for a group entitled “Republicans Against Perry” (11/18-19; 549 PA-10 registered voters; text & live interview) sees the challenger, Ms. Stenson, leading the seven-term Congressman 48-44%. In 2024, Rep. Perry defeated Ms. Stenson, 51-49 percent. Clearly, this race will land in the toss-up category all the way to election day.
TN-7
In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0% victory on Tuesday night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville). Mr. Van Epps secured the district for the GOP and avoided a Democratic upset of national proportions.
Though Mr. Van Epps did not reach the 60% level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, the final result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.
The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is equivalent to where the candidates finished. Mr. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.
Texas Redistricting
The US Supreme Court officially overturned the three-judge panel ruling that declared Texas’ 2025 congressional map a racial gerrymander. On a 6-3 vote, the high court reinstated the map for use in the 2026 election. The ruling came just in time since the candidate filing deadline is Monday. The contenders have already been filing based upon the new map because the racial gerrymandering ruling had been stayed. Thus, no disruption occurred in the election cycle. With a map now legally ensconced, the March 3 partisan primary and any necessary May 26 runoff will proceed as scheduled.
TX-22
After what will be only three terms in Congress, Texas US Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) surprisingly announced over the weekend that he will not seek re-election next year. With Rep. Nehls’ 22nd District now coming open, a total of ten Texas US House districts will have no incumbent for the 2026 election.
Under the new map, the 22nd remains a Republican district. The 2025 draw encompasses parts of the CD’s traditional three counties, Brazoria, Ft. Bend and Harris. According to the newly calculated partisan lean from Dave’s Redistricting App, the district yields a reliable Republican calculation of 60.0R – 38.0D. The partisan lean tracks with President Trump’s 2024 performance as he carried the district over Kamala Harris with a 59-39% margin.
Immediately upon the Nehls’ retirement announcement becoming public, the Congressman’s twin brother, former County Constable and retired US Army Colonel Trever Nehls, announced his candidacy.
Nationally, the Nehls retirement decision brings to 46 the number of open seats headed into the next election. Of that latter group, 24 of the open seats are currently Republican held and 17 Democratic, with five new seats created from the 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.
TX-30
Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who currently represents the 33rd District, says he will run in the new 30th District if US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) announces for the Senate on Monday. The Congresswoman has not yet committed to the statewide race even though polling shows her leading the Democratic primary.
Rep. Veasey, who sees his Ft. Worth political base placed in another district, further said he would not run against Ms. Crockett should she file for the House race. Her recent comments suggest that she is moving toward running for the Senate.
GOVERNOR
Nebraska
Rancher Charles Herbster, who placed second in the open 2022 Republican gubernatorial campaign to now-Governor Jim Pillen (R), is making moves to possibly challenge the incumbent for renomination. In the nine-candidate ’22 GOP primary, Mr. Pillen defeated Mr. Herbster, who had President Trump’s support, by a 34-30% margin. In this election, the President has already endorsed Gov. Pillen. Should Herbster make the challenge, Gov. Pillen will be in the proverbial driver’s seat for renomination and rated a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
New Hampshire
Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern (D) is moving toward entering the Democratic gubernatorial nomination campaign. He would be the most credible potential candidate to date should he ultimately decide to enter. The New Hampshire primary is not until September 8, so this Governor’s race will be late in developing. The eventual Democratic nominee will challenge Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) who will be seeking her second two-year term.
South Carolina
A just-released Wick survey (11/24-26; 600 SC likely Republican primary voters) sees four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson moving to the top of the open GOP nomination fight. According to the Wick results, Mr. Wilson maintains a 22-16-12-11-2% advantage over Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), respectively. Previously polling pushed Lt. Gov. Evette to the lead after she launched a major media blitz.
The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial election, which is probable, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur two weeks after the primary vote.
Wisconsin
Former Lt. Governor and 2022 US Senate nominee Mandela Barnes announced during the week that he will join the crowded open Democratic primary vying for the opportunity of succeeding retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D). Eight Democrats have joined the race including Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison) and state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison).
At this point, the Republican nomination contest is a two-way affair between US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann. As with most Wisconsin political contests, the general election promises to be close.
