SENATE
Alaska
Former at-large US Representative Mary Peltola, defeated for re-election to the House in 2024, announced this week that she will challenge two-term Republican Senator Dan Sullivan later this year.
Though polling is already showing a Sullivan-Peltola Senate race to be a virtual toss-up, such is not surprising at this point in the election cycle. It is common to see the Alaska Democratic candidates consistently polling better early than they actually perform when votes are counted on election day. While Sen. Sullivan should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election, Ms. Peltola’s candidacy certainly makes the Senate race competitive.
Just before the Peltola announcement, the Alaska Survey Research firm produced its Winter Alaska Survey and tested Sen. Sullivan and Ms. Peltola. The poll (1/9-11; 2,132 AK likely voters; text & online) found the Democratic former Congresswoman slightly leading Sen. Sullivan, 48.0 – 46.4%. Expect to see close polling until we get closer to the general election.
Kentucky
The OnMessage polling firm, conducting a statewide survey for the Kentucky First Action group (1/5-8; 600 KY likely Republican primary voters; text-to-web) again found former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron leading US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington). This particular ballot test found a 40-25% Cameron advantage. Rep. Barr has a major fundraising lead, however, so expect this nomination campaign to tighten as the candidates move nearer to the May 19 primary.
Michigan
The Detroit News and WDIV-TV Channel 4 commissioned a Glengariff Group Michigan survey (1/2-6; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) and found former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) faring well against all three of his potential Democratic US Senate opponents.
Against former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, Mr. Rogers posts a 48.0 – 41.6% advantage. If state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) were to become the Democratic nominee, the former seven-term US Representative would lead 45.7 – 42.4%. US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) fares best. She would trail Mr. Rogers, 43.7 – 44.1 percent.
All of these Rogers’ numbers are better than polling suggested in the 2024 race. Mr. Rogers lost to now-Senator Elissa Slotkin (D) by just three-tenths of one percent but polling projected him down by an average of more than two percentage points. The data again indicates that the 2026 Michigan US Senate race will be one to watch.
HOUSE
CA-1
Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced that he will compete in the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA). Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has until Tuesday to schedule the special election. It remains to be seen if the special will be held in the new 1st, which favors the Democrats, or the previous 1st, which favors Republicans and the district in which Mr. LaMalfa was elected. Assemblyman Gallagher is ineligible to seek re-election to his current position.
CA-26
Seven-term California US Representative Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura County) announced that she will not seek re-election this year. Immediately, after the Congresswoman made her political intentions public, state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) declared her congressional candidacy and with Rep. Brownley’s endorsement.
The new 26th saw only minor changes in the 2025 redistricting map. Prior to voters adopting the new plan, the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated a 56.8D – 41.2R partisan lean. While CA-26 is moving a bit closer to the competitive realm, it is still wholly within the universe of distinctly Democratic California congressional districts. Assemblywoman Irwin is the early favorite to hold the Democratic seat.
FL-2
This week, five-term Florida US Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. Rep. Dunn, a physician, served in the Army Medical Corps for eleven years before coming to the Florida Panhandle where he founded two medical facilities and a bank, all prior to his initial election to the US House in 2016.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) indicates he will call a special session in April for congressional redistricting, so we can expect to see some different district configurations result in northern Florida. Rep. Dunn’s open 2nd District will likely become more Republican under the new construction since the GOP map drawers will want to secure the district for a new party nominee. Counting both Rep. Dunn and the previously reported upon Rep. Julia Brownley (R-CA) not seeking re-election, the House open seat count rises to 53.
ME-2
As expected, state Senator Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor) joined the open congressional race with the goal of succeeding retiring US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Already in the Democratic primary are State Auditor Matt Dunlap and three minor candidates. The eventual nominee with face former two-term Governor Paul LePage (R) in the general election. Maine’s 2nd District is the most Republican seat in the nation that sends a Democrat to the House and is a top GOP conversion target. Sen. Baldacci is the brother of former Gov. John Baldacci (D).
NJ-9
Attorney Tiffany Burress (R), wife of former New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress, announced that she will compete for the Republican nomination with the hope of challenging freshman Rep. Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon) in the general election. Already in the race is Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino (R). Rep. Pou’s 51-46% victory over Republican Billy Prempeh, who spent less than $50,000 on his campaign, was a 2024 election surprise. With a new GOP nominee, this race will attract some outside attention in 2026.
OH-9
It appears the ICE controversy will be at the forefront of the race against US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Deputy ICE Director Madison Sheahan (R), and a veteran aide to NHS Secretary Kristi Noem, announced that she will return to western Ohio to challenge veteran Rep. Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the House. Six other Republicans are already in the race, including former state Rep. Derek Merrin who held Rep. Kaptur to a re-election victory of less than half a percentage point in 2024. Also in the race is state Rep. Josh Williams (R-Sylvania Township). Because of redistricting, OH-9 is a must win for Republicans.
TN-7
State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville), who lost to newly elected US Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-Nashville) in the December 2 special election, announced that she will not return for a rematch in the regular 2026 election cycle. Considering this development, expect Rep. Van Epps to win a full term with a more substantial electoral vote margin.
TX-18
A Lake Research Partners poll (12/15-21; released 1/13/26; 455 TX-18 likely voters; text & online) for the Christian Menefee campaign finds a surprising result. The ballot test finds Mr. Menefee (D), the Harris County Attorney, leading US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) by a 41-35% margin with special election contender Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Councilwoman, trailing with just 13% support.
The special election to fill the previous 18th District due to the death of US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) is scheduled for January 31. Regardless of the outcome, Mr. Menefee and Ms. Edwards will then challenge Rep. Green in the new 18th for the regular 2026 primary election on March 3.
Virginia
The newly sworn-in Virginia House of Delegates voted along party lines to schedule a special redistricting election before the state’s June 9 primary. The state Senate will shortly follow the House action. A lawsuit attempting to halt the process will likely be filed. The new map upon which the people will vote to accept is expected to be made public on January 30. If passed, the Democrats will improve substantially from the current 6D-5R delegation split.
GOVERNOR
California
Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) reiterated this week that he won’t enter the open California Governor’s race but will continue to concentrate on his campaign for re-election. Already there are 24 announced Democratic candidates, 28 Republicans, and 19 independent or minor party candidates. The gubernatorial candidate filing deadline for the June 2 primary is March 11, and it is expected that most of the 71 announced individuals won’t follow through with the filing process. Still, we will see a very active and large jungle primary. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Florida
Recently appointed Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R) announced this week that he will join the open gubernatorial race with the hope of succeeding term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Mr. Collins will face US Rep. Byon Donalds (R-Naples) in the GOP primary and has quite a figurative hill to climb to overtake his opponent.
Two live interview polls were just conducted, from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (1/8-13; 400 FL likely Republican primary voters), and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (1/4-6; 600 FL likely Republican primary voters). The Mason-Dixon ballot test found Mr. Donalds crushing Lt. Gov. Collins, 37-7%, while the Fabrizio Lee numbers were even more lopsided: 45-6% also favoring Rep. Donalds.
Michigan
Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D), badly trailing Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, announced this week that he is leaving the Governor’s race and instead will enter the open contest for the position Ms. Benson is leaving. Lt. Gov. Gilchrist’s exit virtually assures Ms. Benson of winning the party nomination. If so, she will face a three-way contest that will likely feature she, US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), and Independent former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.
The aforementioned Glengariff Group poll (see Michigan Senate above) also tested what appears to be the forming three-way gubernatorial race. Of the Republicans running, only Rep. James leads his opponents. According to the Glengariff data, Rep. James leads Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) and former three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I), 34-32-26%, which is a precursor to seeing a very close three-way race. Against three other Republicans including former Attorney General Mike Cox, Ms. Benson posts close leads under all scenarios.
Minnesota
Former Governor Jesse Ventura (I), who scored a shocking upset in the 1998 election but did not seek a second term, says he will run again later this year. Mr. Ventura said he is “owed a second term.” Should Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) enter the Governor’s race, she will likely clinch the race early. If she remains in the Senate, the Governor’s race could turn into a wide-open affair, and a Ventura independent candidacy could have an effect on the eventual outcome.
South Carolina
Stratus Intelligence (for the Mace campaign; 1/7-9; 700 SC likely Republican primary voters; text and live interview) released the ballot test results of their survey. Accordingly, US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) posts a 23-19-14-11% over Attorney General Alan Wilson, Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, and US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill).
Previously, polling found Rep. Mace dropping back into the pack, however. This open GOP gubernatorial primary will prove very interesting. The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9. If no one receives majority support, which is likely, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on June 23. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election.
