SENATE
Alaska
A late June poll released in early July from Siena University, polling for the New York Times, finds Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) recapturing the lead against former at-large US Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The survey (6/15-29; 593 AK likely general election voters; live interview) posts Sen. Sullivan to a 47-45% edge. Both Sen. Sullivan and former Representative Peltola will advance to the general election from the top four jungle primary system that Alaska utilizes. Expect the polling to be close until the final two weeks when Sen. Sullivan will pull away and win re-election with a comfortable margin. Such is Alaska’s typical polling pattern.
Georgia
Wick Research released a statewide Georgia poll result (6/27-30; 1,175 GA likely general election voters; online) that finds a close race despite Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) huge campaign resource advantage. According to previous Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, Sen. Ossoff had raised more money than any candidate in the United States.
The Wick ballot test, however, finds the first-term Senator leading US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) by only a 47-43% count. The Georgia race is a major Democratic defensive campaign. Without holding Georgia, the Democrats would have virtually no chance of competing for the Senate majority.
Maine
The political week was dominated with the Maine Senate race media coverage and the fate of Democratic nominee Graham Platner, defending himself from claims he raped a woman earlier in the decade. Though Platner vehemently denies the accusation, he is ending his Senate campaign.
In his 11-minute video announcing his decision, Mr. Platner blames “the larger world forces,” meaning the people he says who are making it impossible to continue his campaign. The reference is apparently directed toward the Democratic leaders who stated they will not spend national or state party money to support his effort if he remained in the race.
The Maine Democratic Party leaders must now decide upon a system to choose a new nominee without any direction from state law. They are apparently looking toward calling a snap convention to choose a nominee, hoping to attract as many as 500 delegates from the various counties and localities. Their principal problem, however, is the clock. They have only until July 27th to replace Platner assuming he turns in his paperwork at the July 13th withdrawal deadline.
Michigan
We also saw a major development in the Michigan Senate race with another Democrat ending a campaign. State Senator Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) gained some national notoriety with her speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention where she referenced the Project 2025 document as President Trump’s future agenda.
This week, however, due to sagging polling numbers in the Democrats’ difficult three-way primary campaign among herself, US Representative Haley Stevens, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, Ms. McMorrow suspended her campaign with less than a month remaining until the Michigan August 4th primary election.
A Tavern Research poll (7/6-7; 2,211 MI likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds Dr. El-Sayed leading Rep. Stevens and Sen. McMorrow, 41-38-5%. Without McMorrow on the ballot, Rep. Stevens records a scant 42-41% edge. Despite Sen. McMorrow leaving the race, her name will remain on the August 4th primary ballot.
In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, a loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit. Among the three Democratic competitive defense states this year, Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.
HOUSE
AL-2
The new Alabama redistricting map re-established the 2nd District in the state’s southeast corner and the electorate is expected to return to its former Republican voting pattern. This means freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Mobile) plurality minority district is effectively eliminated. Still, a new political survey finds that Rep. Figures will be a tough out.
Impact Research tested the new 2nd CD (6/22-25; 400 AL-2 likely general election voters; live interview) and found state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures by a scant 45-44% count. It is important to remember that Mr. Marques is not yet the Republican nominee since the primary election for the new districts is not until August 11th. Expect the numbers to substantially improve for the Republican nominee once the primary concludes.
Maryland Redistricting
While the current Maryland congressional map remains intact for the 2026 election, the state’s legislative leaders announced that both houses will convene in a special session next month to redraw the state’s map for the 2028 election cycle.
Previously, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) had prevented the redistricting issue from being considered but has now changed his mind after the US Supreme Court ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana case that virtually eliminated majority minority districts. The new plan will undoubtedly target the state’s lone Republican congressional seat, the 1st CD, that Republican Andy Harris (R-Cambridge) holds. Changing District 1 into a Democratic seat will move Maryland to an 8D-0R configuration but could make at least one or two of the Democratic seats more competitive.
NY-17
Though redistricting did not happen in New York, the politically marginal Upstate 17th District is still a must-win for the GOP and two-term incumbent Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River). The latest released FM3 survey conducted for the House Majority PAC (6/27-7/1; 509 NY-17 likely general election voters) sees former National Security Council staff member Cait Conley, who won the Democratic nomination on June 23rd, leading Rep. Lawler, 51-45 percent. Considering the recent New York hard left political swing, this contest will be difficult for Rep. Lawler to reverse.
OH-15
A newly released June House Majority PAC poll (Hart Research; 6/23-25; 550 OH-15 likely general election voters; live interview) sees three-term US Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus) falling into what could become a competitive 2026 campaign. The Hart Research results find the Congressman leading Democratic nominee Don Leonard, a local college professor, by only a 45-40% margin. In a district with a partisan lean of 54.7R – 44.4D (Dave’s Redistricting App), this ballot test is an underperformance for the incumbent.
PA-7
US Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) represents a swing Lehigh Valley district that fails to give any candidate a big win. The GBAO polling organization reports new ballot test figures (for House Majority PAC; 6/29-7/2; 550 PA-7 likely general election voters) that find Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the May Democratic primary, leading the freshman Congressman by a 47-43% margin.
The PA-7 race is another critical national congressional election that will help decide which party controls the House in the next Congress.
WI-3
A FM3 Research poll finds another Republican incumbent trailing in his bid for re-election. The June survey released in early July (6/20-25; 535 WI-3 likely general election voters) posts challenger Rebecca Cooke (D), who lost to Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) by a 51.3 – 48.6% margin, leading the Congressman in this campaign, 50-46%.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Regular Arizona pollster Noble Predictive Insights tested the Grand Canyon State Republican gubernatorial primary (6/29-7/1; 425 AZ likely Republican primary voters; text to online) and again found that US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) is making little headway in his quest to deny fellow US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) the Republican nomination.
The Noble polls posts Rep. Biggs to a whopping 60-10% lead as the candidates move toward the state’s July 21st primary election. The Republican winner will challenge first-term Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) in the general election.
Colorado
The tight Republican gubernatorial primary race is still not complete in political overtime, but it appears that pastor Victor Marx has enough of a lead to claim victory. His come from behind effort against state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County) has given him a 40.2 – 39.4% lead (approximately 2,000 votes) with too few ballots remaining to change the outcome. Mr. Marx will now become a heavy underdog to Attorney General Phil Weiser who defeated US Sen. Michael Bennet in the June 30th Democratic primary. Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Georgia
The previously mentioned Wick Research statewide Georgia poll (6/27-30; 1,175 GA likely general election voters; online) also tested the open Governor’s race. The result finds an even closer battle than the Senate numbers indicated. The Wick totals project both former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) and businessman Rick Jackson (R) tied at 43% apiece.
New York
A co/efficient survey finds Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) pulling to within striking distance of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) for the November election. The poll (for the Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers; 6/30-7/2; 1,085 NY likely general election voters; text & live interview) finds the Governor holding only a 47-41% lead over Mr. Blakeman. Though the polling is suggesting a closer than expected race, Gov. Hochul still remains the favorite to capture a second full term.
Oregon
Public Opinion Strategies just released the results of a June shock poll that finds Gov. Tina Kotek (D) trailing state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan (R). According to the survey results (6/22-24; 600 OR registered voters; live interview), the Drazan lead is 48-44%. Expect counter Democratic polls to soon be released. In 2022, Ms. Kotek defeated Ms. Drazan, 47.0 – 43.5 percent with 8.6% going to former Democratic state Senator Betsy Johnson running as an Independent.
Tennessee
According to a report from the Tennessee Journal political blog, a new McLaughlin & Associates survey (for the Rose campaign; 6/28-30; 600 TN likely Republican primary voters; live interview) sees US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) denting Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R) perennial gubernatorial lead.
The McLaughlin poll finds Sen. Blackburn leading Rep. Rose, 44-29% with state Rep. Monty Fritts (R-Kingston) registering 12% support. Previously, Sen. Blackburn had held leads between 56 and 63% support in polls conducted during 2026. The Tennessee primary is August 6th. The eventual Republican nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
