PRIMARY RESULTS
Arizona
Five-term US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), as polling correctly predicted, easily won the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary Tuesday night defeating fellow US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) with over 70% of the vote. Rep. Biggs will now challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs who faced no opposition in her Democratic primary.
With Arizona becoming politically purple, we can again expect another close Governor’s result. In 2022, Ms. Hobbs, then Arizona’s Secretary of State, won a razor thin 50.3 – 49.6% victory over Republican Kari Lake.
In the 1st District Republican primary, former NFL placekicker Jay Feely – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – defeated state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R‑Scottsdale) and technology company executive John Trobough. Mr. Feely garnered just under 50% of the party vote.
While a large portion of the Democratic establishment was lining up behind former news anchor Marlene Galan‑Woods including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary and held incumbent David Schweikert to a four-point victory margin in the general election, it will again be Dr. Shah advancing into the general election. The projected final vote count indicates that Dr. Shah will attract just under 40% support in topping three other Democratic candidates.
The other major Republican primary comes in Rep. Biggs’s open congressional district race. Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb shook off a sex scandal to defeat Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan with 58% of the vote at this writing. For the Democrats, nurse Elizabeth Lee recorded a landslide victory over her two opponents. The 5th District is safely Republican, meaning Mr. Lamb becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Biggs in the general election.
The other competitive general election races will be in northeastern District 2 where Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) and former Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez will again do battle. In 2024, Rep. Crane scored a ten-point victory. In the politically marginal southeastern 6th District, Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) will face retired Marine Corps Sgt. JoAnna Mendoza. Both were unopposed in their respective primaries.
SENATE
Maine
The Maine Democratic Party, having to scramble to find a new US Senate nominee when elected nominee Graham Platner was forced out of the race due to multiple personal scandals, has settled on former state Senate President Troy Jackson. Mr. Jackson’s political organization, largely conducted through his labor union support, swept the county caucuses prior to the snap nominating convention on July 25th in Bangor.
Troy Jackson, a former Republican and Independent before switching to the Democrats decades ago, lost the gubernatorial primary election in June. In the Senate election county caucuses, he defeated two other losing gubernatorial candidates, former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, along with two losing congressional candidates. Mr. Jackson will now challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins who is striving to win a sixth term.
Michigan
A recent Tulchin Research Poll conducted for the Fighting for Michigan Super PAC, which supports ex-Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed (7/13-15; 500 MI likely Democratic primary voters), sees their candidate forging into a 56-40% lead over US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). In addition to the ballot test result, the other key indicator is El-Sayed’s strong favorability ratio of 69:17 positive to negative versus Stevens’ 54:34. The Michigan primary is August 4th. The eventual Democratic nominee will face former Congressman and 2024 Republican US Senate nominee Mike Rogers in November.
Minnesota
Survey USA, polling for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (7/15-20; 513 MN Democratic Farm Labor Party likely voters), sees Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), and the Minnesota Democratic Farm-Labor Party, pulling into a dead heat tie with US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), at 40-40%, in their US Senate DFL nomination battle.
Compared with a previous S-USA poll, Ms. Flanagan has gained a net five percentage points opposite Rep. Craig. The Minnesota primary is August 11th. The Democratic winner will probably face former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya who has a large lead in Republican nomination polling. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring.
Nebraska
Democratic US Senate nominee Cindy Burbank, as she initially promised, is withdrawing from the Senate general election in order to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear challenge to Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). When she first entered the race saying she would withdraw, Secretary of State Bob Evnen moved to remove her name from the ballot saying she violated the candidate oath pledging to serve in the position if elected. The state Supreme Court reinstated her for the Democratic primary, which she won. Now, Ms. Burbank is following through on her initial withdrawal statements and again leaves the race. In any event, Sen. Ricketts is favored to win a full six-year term in November.
South Carolina
Newly appointed South Carolina US Senator Darline Graham (R) announced this week that she will compete in the August 11th special election to fill her late brother’s seat for the full six-year term. Originally, it was believed that Sen. Graham was being appointed as a caretaker through the remainder of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s term, but that is not the case.
US Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) also said that he would enter the Senate race without relinquishing his nomination for re‑election in the 7th Congressional District. Previously, Mr. Fry had been viewed as President Trump’s preferred candidate, but before Sen. Graham’s announcement, the President issued a “complete and total” endorsement of her proposed candidacy.
Over the weekend, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who lost the gubernatorial primary in June, declared his candidacy for the Senate special election. Businessman Mark Lynch, who lost the June primary to Lindsey Graham, is also an announced contender. The candidate filing deadline is July 28th for the August 11th special Republican primary. If no one receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on August 25th.
New polling data suggests a runoff is likely. Two surveys were released, from Innovative Communication Strategies (7/20-21; 788 likely Republican special primary voters; text‑to‑web) and Peak Insights (7/18–20; 900 likely Republican special primary voters; live interview & text), and both show Sen. Graham slightly trailing Rep. Norman. The early data suggests that two of the candidates advancing to a secondary runoff election is a likelihood.
HOUSE
IL-4
The move from retiring US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) to shut others out of filing for the congressional seat except his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman), looks to be working. This week, the Illinois Board of Elections’ members unanimously voted to strike Chicago City Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez and political organizer Mayra Macias from the ballot. Neither recruited the 10,816 petition signatures within the district to qualify as an Independent candidate.
On the ballot are Ms. Garcia, Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, Working Class Party nominee Ed Hershey, and Lyons Mayor Chris Getty, who did qualify as an Independent. With so many candidates, all Ms. Garcia has to do is receive a sizable vote from the district’s Democratic voters to clinch the general election.
MI-13
Two-term US Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) faces a major challenge from state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) and Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters (running as a write-in candidate after failing to produce the required number of petition signatures) in the August 4th Democratic primary. A new Data for Progress survey for the Justice Democrats Super PAC (7/9-15; 324 MI-13 likely Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Thanedar leading Mr. McKinney by a close 46-42% margin.
GOVERNOR
Wisconsin
Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, once considered the front runner for the open Democratic gubernatorial nomination, ended her campaign during the week well before the August 11th primary. On a surprising note, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who earlier dropped out of the Governor’s race, re-entered the campaign this time with an endorsement from retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D). According to the most recent polling, the Democratic race leaders are state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison) and former Lt. Governor and 2022 US Senate nominee Mandela Barnes.
The eventual Democratic nominee will face US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), the consensus Republican candidate.
