ELECTION RESULTS
Alabama Runoff
Last Tuesday’s Senate Republican runoff very likely decided who will succeed Senator Tommy Tuberville (R), who is now the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nominee. The winner is Trump-endorsed US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who defeated retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson by a 56-44% margin. The Moore victory virtually punches his ticket to the Senate as he will now be regarded as the prohibitive favorite over attorney Everett Wess who won the Democratic runoff.
Mr. Hudson secured his runoff spot on May 19th by narrowly edging Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had led early but faded once the campaign intensified.
Georgia Runoff
Republicans now have a nominee to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). U.S. Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) defeated former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, 55-45 percent, on Tuesday night. Rep. Collins is the son of the late former US Rep. Mac Collins; Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley.
Rep. Collins now advances to face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), the most prolific fundraiser of all ’26 US Senate candidates. This will become a national campaign with Sen. Ossoff beginning the general election as the favorite.
In the Governor’s race, a Trump endorsed candidate failed to win a party nomination, the second during this election cycle. Businessman Rick Jackson, spending an estimated $100 million of his billion-dollar personal fortune, defeated Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) endorsed candidate Burt Jones, the state’s Lt. Governor.
Mr. Jackson now advances to the general election to oppose Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the party nod outright in the May 19th primary. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign.
Also in Georgia, another ticket was punched to Washington. In the 11th Congressional District Republican runoff election, surgeon and former 14th District congressional candidate Jon Cowan recorded a 65-35% victory over former congressional staff member Rob Adkerson. Dr. Cowan is now a heavy favorite in the general election in a strongly Republican 11th District. Mr. Adkerson previously was chief of staff to the district’s current incumbent, retiring US Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville).
Oklahoma Primary
The headline from Oklahoma’s primary night was US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) capturing 70% of the vote in the state’s open US Senate Republican nomination contest.
Democrats will choose their nominee in an August 25th runoff between N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, and Jim Priest, a retired attorney and minister. Rep. Hern becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the November general election.
In Rep. Hern’s open congressional district, state Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) finished first with 32% in a five-candidate field. He advances to a runoff election against Trump-endorsed pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer. After the election, Mr. Lahmeyer, due to a breaking scandal where the pastor sent sexually explicit texts to an Oklahoma beauty pageant winner, announced that he is withdrawing from the runoff. Therefore, Mr. Tedford becomes the official GOP nominee and is in the driver’s seat to win the general election in November.
In the other congressional races, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), and Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) were all easily renominated. Each exceeded the 70% vote threshold. Fifth District Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) was unopposed for renomination. All four House incumbents, in addition to Mr. Tedford in the 1st District, will enter the general election as overwhelming favorites.
SENATE
Minnesota
The Minnesota Democratic primary is another race posting inconsistent polling results. Most of the data has favored Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan over US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but now we are seeing conflicting numbers. At the end of May, two polls were released from noted Democratic pollsters that produced very different totals.
The Global Strategy Group (5/26-28; 600 MN likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) changed the race trajectory in reporting a 43-42% Craig edge. Previously, Ms. Flanagan held substantial leads in all polling. The first June poll (GQR; 5/31-6/3; 500 MN likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) returns Ms. Flanagan to a large lead, 55-38%.
The just released media poll from Survey USA (for KTSP Channel 5 News; 6/11-16; 513 MN likely Democratic primary voters), however, finds Rep. Craig back with an advantage, 41-36%. Therefore, the wide range suggests the race could be headed to an unpredictable finish.
Survey USA also tested the Republican primary (450 likely primary voters) and found former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya leading ex-NBA basketball player Royce West and the official Republican Party endorsed candidate, Adam Schwarze, a retired Navy SEAL, 36-15-7%. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for August 11th.
HOUSE
CA-4
It appears we will see eight Democrat vs. Democrat US House general election campaigns under California’s top two primary system as the counties continue to report new vote totals from the June 2nd primary. The state still has 21 days left to count and certify the jungle primary election.
One of the more serious intra-party incumbent challenges comes in the state’s 4th District where veteran US Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Napa) is forced into a general election campaign against Democratic venture capitalist Eric Jones. The latter will have plenty of money to make his argument that a younger Democrat would better serve the area than the veteran House incumbent who will be 75 years of age at the time of the election. For the jungle primary, Mr. Jones invested $5 million of his own money into his campaign and raised an additional $3 million. Though the race will not change the partisan division in the House, this contest will clearly be a serious challenger campaign.
CA-14
The special election to replace resigned US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) was held on Tuesday and the result yields a double-Democratic runoff election on August 18th. The winner of the secondary election will immediately take the seat and serve the balance of the current term.
Just like in the regular election, the two qualifiers were state Senator Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) director and ex-Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (D). Again, in this election as she fared in March, Sen. Wahab topped a crowded candidate field with a high 30s vote. Ms. Hernandez qualified for the second position with less than 20% support. Sen. Wahab is favored in both the special runoff and in the general election for the regular two-year term.
CO-8
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, is one of the tightest political districts in the country. We can we expect to see a very competitive general election for freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton), and now we are witnessing a Democratic primary candidate breaking away from the field to post a significant polling lead.
State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City), the fundraising leader, records a 41-34% margin over former state Rep. Shannon Bird in a new GBAO survey conducted for the Latino Victory Fund Super PAC. The poll was conducted over the June 11-14 period of 400 CO-8 likely Democratic primary voters through live interviews. In April, the same organization released a survey (4/22-26; 400 CO-8 likely Democratic primary voter; live interview) that found a much closer contest: Rutinel leading only 32-31 percent. The Colorado primary is scheduled for June 30th.
MD-6
Billionaire former Congressman David Trone (D) is attempting a political comeback in the congressional district he held for three terms before losing the 2024 US Senate primary. To return, he would have to defeat the woman who replaced him, freshman US Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac).
Polling offers no clear picture. Several surveys suggest Mr. Trone is well‑positioned, while just as many indicate he is headed for a sizable defeat. In an unusual sequence of publicly released polls, the ballot test leader has flipped in eight consecutive surveys. All were conducted through professional live interview firms that the two campaigns commissioned.
The latest pair of polls again shows opposite outcomes. Hart Research (for the Delaney campaign; 6/2-4; 500 MD‑6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) places Rep. Delaney ahead 52-37%, a margin well beyond the survey’s error range and consistent with their March, April, and May findings.
In contrast, the Global Strategy Group (for the Trone campaign; 6/8-11; 500 MD‑6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) shows Mr. Trone holding a slight 43-40% edge, also in line with previous Impact Research results for the Trone campaign.
Whatever happens in next Tuesday’s Maryland Democratic primary, the 6th District results will engender another round of polling scrutiny since the plentiful polling releases have been consistently inconsistent.
GOVERNOR
California
Now that the open California gubernatorial general election is set between former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) and ex-Fox News host Steve Hilton (R), expect to see a plethora of polling releases before the general election. A just-released Kreate Strategies survey (6/13-17; 900 CA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Mr. Becerra opening the general election campaign with a large lead over Mr. Hilton, 58-33%.
It remains to be seen how much of an effort Republicans will put behind Hilton in deep blue California where just holding the Democratic party label is usually enough to win a statewide election.
Colorado
We see differing polls in the open Colorado gubernatorial primary. A late May Colorado Community Research survey (5/22-28; 796 CO likely Democratic primary voters) found US Sen. Michael Bennet, initially thought to be a shoo-in to win the Democratic primary and the general election, trailing on a ballot test question. According to the CCR poll, Attorney General Phil Weiser, running to the ideological left of Sen. Bennet, was leading the primary race, 41-34%.
A new countering research study from Public Policy Polling (6/1-2; 505 CO likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Sen. Bennet back on top, but not in major fashion. The ballot test result showed only a 36-30% Bennet edge, with a whopping 34% saying they are undecided as we approach the final ten days of the campaign.
South Carolina
While the open Republican South Carolina gubernatorial primary appeared to be razor-thin among five candidates but ended with Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson rather easily advancing to the runoff election, the secondary contest is yielding very different polling data.
With the runoff scheduled for this coming Tuesday, three polls find AG Wilson building a substantial lead. The most recent, and extreme in terms of the cumulative ballot test results, comes from JMC Analytics (6/13-15; 500 SC likely Republican runoff voters; live interview). The data, including those respondents who are leaning to one candidate or the other, find Mr. Wilson posting a 63-28% lead. The new Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) in November.
