SENATE
Arkansas
Sen. Tom Cotton won renomination in the Republican primary on Tuesday with 82% of the vote. The general election will now feature a contest between Sen. Cotton and Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner. Sen. Cotton is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
Florida
The University of North Florida conducted a survey of the state’s electorate, testing for the first time appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) and potential Democratic nominee Alexander Vindman, a retired Army Lt. Colonel and ex-National Security Council staff member. According to the study (2/21-3/2; 786 FL likely general election voters; live interview & text), Sen. Moody would lead Mr. Vindman, 45-38%. State Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville), also an announced candidate, was similarly tested. In this ballot test, Sen. Moody would lead 46-38%.
Montana
The Treasure State of Montana’s political world experienced a political earthquake literally at the close of candidate filing this week when two-term Sen. Steve Daines (R) withdrew his previous re-election candidacy statement and will instead retire.
Having his successor already prepped, US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) then filed for the office just as the deadline was expiring. In addition to Sen. Daines endorsing Mr. Alme, the Trump presidential endorsement was also pre-determined. With Mr. Alme as the only major Republican filing, his path to the party nomination appears virtually unencumbered.
Democrats have five candidates, but possibly the most serious Alme opponent is former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, running as an Independent. Chances are strong that this last-minute gambit will work and Mr. Alme will become the state’s next US Senator.
Nebraska
Part of the reason that Independent Dan Osborn would have some chance against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is that no Democratic candidate is on the ballot, thus giving the party the opportunity of officially endorsing. This was the situation Mr. Osborn enjoyed in 2024 when challenging Sen. Deb Fischer (R). This week, however, two Democrats filed for the Senate. Pastor Bill Forbes, who is known for his pro-life stands, filed in the Democratic primary prompting Osborn to label him as a “stooge” for Sen. Ricketts.
The other filing Democrat is Cindy Burbank, who is actually an Osborn supporter. Ms. Burbank indicates that she would decline the nomination if winning the Democratic primary in order to help Mr. Osborn. Therefore, we will see political intrigue in the May 12 Democratic primary.
Texas
The Texas primary was held on Tuesday, and incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced into a Senate Republican runoff scheduled for May 26. US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) finished a distant third and is now eliminated. President Trump is dropping hints that he may endorse Sen. Cornyn and saying that the individual he does not back should concede the race. For his part, Mr. Paxton says he will drop out if the Senate passes the SAVE Act relating to citizenship voting and other election-oriented law and procedure.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). For the first time since the 1990s more Democrats voted in the Texas primary election than Republicans, which suggests the Senate general election will be a hotly contested campaign.
HOUSE
NC-4
Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam has conceded to US Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) in the state’s 4th District Democratic primary. It appeared that Rep. Foushee’s small 1,202 vote lead over Ms. Allam would hold because only provisional and overseas ballots remain. Commissioner Allam and her campaign strategists agreed with the analysis. Now as the official nominee, Rep. Foushee becomes the heavy favorite in the Autumn.
MT-1
US Representative and former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) announced this week that he will not seek a third consecutive term from the state’s western, and more politically competitive, 1st Congressional District.
The veteran Representative says he must endure several medical procedures related to long-term injuries sustained from his days as a Navy SEAL, which, though non-life threatening, would require him to be absent from Congress over what will likely be a long recovery period. Thus Mr. Zinke, who returned to the House in 2023 after winning the 2016 and ’18 at-large congressional elections (Montana was awarded a second congressional seat in the 2020 national apportionment), said that western Montana deserves a full-time Representative.
In conjunction with the situation surrounding Sen. Daines’ departure as previously described, the Zinke move had obviously been quietly planned for a sustained period. As part of his retirement announcement, the Congressman endorsed radio talk show host Aaron Flint as his successor. The Zinke endorsement of Mr. Flint was quickly followed with an equivalent show of support from President Trump proclaiming his “complete and total endorsement” for Mr. Flint. Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) then publicly endorsed the new congressional candidate, as well.
New York Redistricting
The US Supreme Court granted US Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-Staten Island) motion to stay the New York state judge’s ruling that her 11th Congressional District is a racial gerrymander under the NY State Voting Rights Act. This was the first ever ruling that used a state law to invalidate a federal district. The SCOTUS action very likely means that the current New York map will remain in effect for the 2026 election.
Texas
Several open seat candidates won US House nominations outright on Tuesday. They are: Jessica Hart Steinmann (R-TX-8), Chris Gober (R-TX-10), Mark Teixeira (R-TX-21), Trever Nehls (R-TX-22), and Frederick Haynes (D-TX-30). All are prohibitive favorites to win their respective general elections.
TX-2
In a major upset, state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) defeated four-term US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) in what has to be categorized as a landslide result especially since the winner was badly outspent. Mr. Toth’s strong base within the conservative movement and receiving a late boost from US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) helped push the challenger to victory. Rep. Crenshaw is the first incumbent of this election cycle to be denied renomination, but several others are expected to follow as the primary cycle progresses.
TX-15
Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, as expected, won the 15th District Democratic primary and will advance into the general election to challenge two-term US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new district’s partisan lean is 51.4D – 46.8R, but President Trump carried the seat with a whopping 59-41% margin in a district that is 79% Hispanic and stretches from the region east of San Antonio all the way to the Mexican border. Mr. Pulido is a strong Democratic recruit, so expect this to be another competitive Texas campaign later this year.
TX-18
It is now clear that the 18th CD Democratic primary featuring paired US Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Christian Menefee (D-Houston) will advance to a runoff election. Though former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards had withdrawn from the race, her name still appeared on Tuesday’s ballot and attracted about 8% of the vote. Her total was enough to deny a majority to Rep. Menefee who held a slight lead. This means the race will be decided in a new election on May 26.
TX-19
Two candidates in retiring US Rep. Jodey Arrington’s (R-Lubbock) open 19th District will advance to a runoff election but only one of the participants is known. Agribusinessman Tom Sell has secured the first position. Separated by just 193 votes are Gov. Greg Abbott supported Abraham Enriquez and businessman Matt Smith, with only provisional and overseas ballots remaining to count. One of the latter two will advance into the runoff once the final vote tabulations are published.
TX-23
Now admitting to having an affair with his late staff member who committed suicide, thus recanting his previous claims that he had not engaged in adultery, three-term US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) on Thursday night conceded the 23rd District Republican runoff election to gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera. The Congressman also committed to serving the balance of the term.
With such a small majority, the Republican leadership could not afford for the Congressman to resign. Therefore, the exit decision and announcement is seemingly the GOP leadership’s best-case scenario. Now they can openly support Herrera in order to hold the seat in the general election, while keeping Gonzales in the House to serve the balance of the term. The entire Gonzales scenario presented a difficult tightrope for Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team to walk, but it appears they have made the best of a difficult and complex circumstance.
TX-32
In the new open 32nd District, businessman Jace Yarbrough, who enjoys support from both President Trump and Governor Greg Abbott, is knocking on the door of 50%, but may fall just short once final tabulations are published. Therefore, second place finisher Ryan Binkley, the 2024 long shot presidential candidate who trails Yarbrough by approximately 30 percentage points, can either force the runoff or concede.
TX-33
Because of voting issues in Dallas County, a large number of ballots remain uncounted in the region’s 33rd Congressional District Democratic primary, but it is clear that former Congressman Colin Allred, who led the primary by 11 percentage points, and freshman US Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) will advance to a Democratic runoff election.
TX-38
In the Houston anchored open 38th District, businessman Jon Bonck is another contender close to, but not reaching, the majority support level required to secure a nomination. Like in District 32, it will be up to a trailing second-place finisher, likely businesswoman Shelly deZevallos, to decide if she will force a runoff or concede.
UT-4
Due to a redistricting court decision, one Utah Republican congressional seat has been collapsed in favor of drawing a Democratic seat in Salt Lake City. With all the courts backing the initial judicial decision, three-term US Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), who would turn 75 years of age before the election, announced that he will not seek re-election. His decision prevents Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) from being paired in one district.
Virginia Redistricting
Clarifying the confusing Old Dominion redistricting situation, the Virginia state Supreme Court justices ruled that the April 21 special redistricting referendum election may proceed but stressed that the high court has not ruled on the substance of the issues before them. Therefore, a court ruling in favor of the Republican appeal, if the justices were so to decide, could nullify a favorable referendum vote. The legislature and Governor have moved the candidate filing deadline and the Virginia primary to May 26 and August 4, respectively, to yield more time to finalize the contentious issues.
Governor
Arizona
The Noble Predictive Insights firm conducted one of their Arizona Governor race surveys and found incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) leading her two prospective rivals by a close margin, but in spreads that are improvements over her earlier polling standing. The Noble poll (2/23-26; 1,023 AZ registered voters; online) found Gov. Hobbs leading US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), 42-37%. If US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) were the Republican nominee, Gov. Hobbs’ advantage swells to 44-35%.
Florida
The University of North Florida’s poll (see Florida Senate above) also tested the impending open Sunshine State Governor’s contest. Here, we see US Rep. Byron Donalds (R) leading former Congressman David Jolly (D), 42-36%. If Orange County Executive Jerry Demings were the Democratic nominee, Rep. Donalds’ advantage would be a similar 43-36%. Rep. Donalds is a heavy favorite, at this point, to win the Republican nomination.
