SENATE
Kentucky
After President Trump endorsed US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and appointed businessman Nate Morris to an Administration position that lead to his departure from the Senate race, a new poll reflects the race’s updated status.
An UpONE Insights poll (for the Andy Barr campaign, 5/9-11; 600 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview) posts Congressman Barr to a 46-27% lead over former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron. Rep. Barr’s campaign is firing on all cylinders as the candidates move toward the May 19th plurality primary. The winner, now presumably Rep. Barr, will be a heavy favorite in the general election to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell.
Louisiana
Polls have been inconsistent for the past several weeks regarding the Louisiana Senate Republican primary where incumbent Bill Cassidy is in danger of losing renomination. One of the polls released before Saturday’s vote comes from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (5/4-5; 600 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and finds US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) leading Sen. Cassidy and State Treasurer John Fleming, 32-26-21%. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a June 27th Republican runoff election.
Nebraska
Sen. Pete Ricketts won an 82% renomination victory in the May 12th Republican primary and advances to the general election. The Democratic winner is party activist Cindy Burbank who previously said she would withdraw from the race and endorse Independent Dan Osborn.
Her comments caused the Secretary of State to disqualify her from the primary ballot because Nebraska candidates take an oath committing to serving in the office for which they are competing. A judicial ruling reinstated Ms. Burbank after affirming that she would remain on the ballot in the general election. It remains to be seen what she will do next. Irrespective of Ms. Burbank’s status, the clear general election battle is between Sen. Ricketts and Mr. Osborn.
West Virginia
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) was an easy 66% winner in the May 12th Republican primary defeating state Sen. Tom Willis (R-Berkeley) and four minor Republican candidates. Sen. Capito will have an easy run in the general election against new Democratic nominee Rachel Anderson a former Morgantown City Councilwoman.
HOUSE
Alabama
The Alabama legislature answered Gov. Kay Ivey’s (R) special session call by returning to the congressional map they passed in 2023, one that a court summarily struck down as a racial gerrymander. As a result of last week’s Callais v. Louisiana Supreme Court ruling and subsequent action involving Alabama, the court removed all legal injunctions to the state’s 2023 map. Therefore, the plan has now been enacted.
The major change is moving the state’s 2nd District, anchored in the capital city of Montgomery, back to its traditional home in southeastern Alabama. As a result, US Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Montgomery) will have to seek re-election in a Republican leaning seat without his traditional support base. He will likely face state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) who was running in the 1st District but announced that he will now compete for the new 2nd CD. Former Congressman Jerry Carl (R) is now favored to win the party nomination in District 1, where he and Mr. Marques had been competing before redistricting changed the political playing field.
CT-1
There is a potential upset brewing in a Connecticut US House race. During the state Democratic Party convention, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated veteran Congressman John Larson (D-Hartford) for the official Democratic Party endorsement, the first time any Connecticut congressional incumbent failed to secure the party delegates’ official backing.
In addition to Mr. Bronin challenging Congressman Larson, who was first elected in 1998, state Representative Jillian Gilchrest also qualified for a congressional ballot position. Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune failed to make the ballot but pledged she will attempt to qualify through petition signatures.
The Connecticut primary is August 11th, but should Representative Larson fail to win renomination against his formidable opponents, he can secure a general election position through the Working Families Party, which has ballot status in the Nutmeg State.
FL-15
The new Florida congressional map continues to initiate political musical chairs and now we see a crisscross effect. Air Force veteran Darren McAuley (D), who was challenging US Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) in the 15th CD, announced that he will now challenge Congressman Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) in the revamped 12th CD.
Simultaneously, Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion (R), who had launched a Republican primary challenge against Rep. Bilirakis, will instead oppose Rep. Lee in the new 15th CD, which contains significant new territory for the Congresswoman. Both Reps. Bilirakis and Lee are still favored for renomination and re-election.
Georgia
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has scheduled a redistricting special legislative session to begin June 17th. The legislature will consider drawing new maps for the US House of Representatives, both legislative chambers, and other offices elected by district. The special session is in response to the Callais v. Louisiana major redistricting decision reflecting a new direction regarding racial gerrymandering. Any newly enacted political map won’t take effect until the 2028 election cycle.
KY-4
A new poll suggests that President Trump may succeed in helping his endorsed northern Kentucky congressional candidate, retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, unseat Trump nemesis Congressman Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) in the May 19th plurality partisan primary. According to Quantus Insights (5/11-12; 908 KY-4 likely Republican primary voters; online), Mr. Gallrein leads the seven-term incumbent, 53-45 percent.
Mississippi
Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has canceled the redistricting special legislative session he called for the purpose of redrawing the state Supreme Court districts. A recent judicial decision vacating the previous ruling that the high court districts were a racial gerrymander was invalidated when the US Supreme Court ruled on the Callais v. Louisiana case that set new criteria for drawing political districts.
Political pressure was being applied to Gov. Reeves to add the congressional map to his call, but such won’t happen because the session has been nullified. Gov. Reeves says he hopes the legislature will redraw the congressional lines before the 2028 election. The 2026 Mississippi primary was held on March 10th. Therefore, redrawing the congressional lines to affect the 2026 elections would have required vacating the primary results and adopting a new election calendar; thus, redistricting will not affect the campaigns already underway.
ME-2
The co/efficient research organization, testing several districts for the National Republican Congressional Committee (4/26-28; 918 ME-2 likely voters; mobile text & live interview), found former Gov. Paul LePage (R) doing very well against two Democratic potential opponents.
Against state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), brother of former Governor and ex-Congressman John Baldacci, Mr. LePage would lead by a substantial 50-40%. If State Auditor Matt Dunlap wins the Democratic nomination, ex-Gov. LePage would defeat him 48-41 percent. The Maine primary is scheduled for June 9th. ME-2 may be the top Republican conversion prospect in the nation. Four-term incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is not seeking re-election.
NE-2
In a primary result that went into political overtime, political activist Denise Powell held onto her small lead at the end of election night counting and defeated state Sen. John Cunningham (D-Omaha) by a 39-37% margin to win the party nomination. She will now compete in what is expected to be a very tight general election against Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding who was unopposed for the Republican nomination. The winner will succeed retiring five-term Congressman Don Bacon (R-Papillion).
NY-10
A new poll shows potential trouble for two-term US Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City). The Schoen Cooperman Research organization (5/1-4; 465 NY-10 likely Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Goldman trailing former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander 47-42% in a poll commissioned for an organization supporting Rep. Goldman. The New York plurality primary is scheduled for June 23rd, and this race figures to be a close contest that will draw national attention.
Tennessee
The Volunteer State legislature and Gov. Bill Lee (R) have redrawn the state’s congressional map in response to the Supreme Court’s new racial gerrymandering ruling. The new Tennessee map looks to give all nine seats to the Republicans, meaning a gain of one GOP seat in the TN delegation. The state’s lone Democratic Congressman, US Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), will have a difficult time winning in any of the seats that touch the city of Memphis and Shelby County.
TX-34
As expected, a new poll is showing a very tight South Texas congressional race unfolding in the newly configured Brownsville anchored 34th District. The co/efficient organization polled the race as part of a multi-district survey project for the National Republican Congressional Committee (4/25-29; 777 TX-34 likely voters; mobile text & live interview). The results find incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) trailing attorney and US Army veteran Eric Flores (R) by a 41-40% count.
WA-3
The co/efficient polling series for the NRCC (4/25-29; 982 WA-3 likely voters; mobile text & live interview) also tested the southwest Washington congressional district of two-term US Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County). Here the pollsters find state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Centralia) leading Rep. Perez, 41-34%. The WA-3 campaign is a prime GOP opportunity target.
GOVERNOR
Maine
A new Democratic primary gubernatorial poll finds businessman Angus King, III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I-ME), climbing into a competitive position for the party nomination, but it appears he would not fare well in the Ranked Choice Voting rounds. The survey, from Schoen Cooperman Research (for the 314 Action political action committee that supports former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah; 4/30-5/4; 522 ME likely Democratic primary voters) sees Mr. King jumping into second position.
As has been the case for the entire campaign, Dr. Shah again leads the field with 28% with Mr. King, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, and ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson following with 21-16-15-13% support figures, respectively. Since this is a Ranked Choice Voting campaign, the multiple choice program begins if no candidate receives majority support. In this simulation, Dr. Shah would defeat Ms. Bellows, 58-42%, through four rounds of Ranked Choice Voting.
The GQR Democratic polling firm, surveying for Ms. Pingree’s campaign, sees a different ballot test result. Their poll (6/6-9; 500 ME likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) also sees Dr. Shah maintaining his polling lead, but this study projects Ms. Pingree to be trailing in second position with a 20% preference figure. The remaining candidates, Ms. Bellows, former Sen. Jackson, and Mr. King, trail with 18-15 and 12% support. The Maine primary is scheduled for June 9th.
South Carolina
The co/efficient research firm released their latest poll of the very tight and turbulent South Carolina open Republican gubernatorial primary campaign. The survey (4/29-30; 813 SC likely Republican primary voters; text & live interview) sees Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette returning to first place with 21% preference followed closely by Attorney General Alan Wilson who posts 18% support. Following with 13-12-11 and 2% preference figures are US Reps. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), businessman Rom Ready, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).
A runoff here is a certainty, since no candidate is near the 50% mark. The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9th with the runoff only two weeks later on June 23rd. The eventual Republican nominee will be a lock to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).
