PRIMARY RESULTS
Alabama
As expected, US Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) and ex-US Sen. Doug Jones (D) both easily won their respective gubernatorial primaries on May 19th. The result features a rematch of the 2020 US Senate campaign in which Mr. Tuberville recorded a 60-40% victory. In the Senate race, also as expected, US Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) secured the first runoff position while Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson are locked in a tight battle for the second Republican runoff slot. Mr. Hudson is declaring unofficially that he has secured the second position.
For the Democrats, attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett will advance to the second round. The Alabama Senate runoff elections are scheduled for June 16th. All non-redistricting affected US House incumbents were easily renominated and will become prohibitive favorites in the general election. Nomination elections in Districts 1, 2, 6, and 7 will be held on August 11th.
Georgia
In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson secured the two runoff positions and will advance to the June 16th second round. On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the party nomination outright, attracting 56% against six opponents. She now advances directly into the general election.
In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley qualified for the runoff. Mr. Dooley edged US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) in a surprise finish. The two Republicans will now battle in the June 16th runoff election for the right to oppose Sen. Ossoff in November.
Turning to the Georgia US House races, Jim Kingston, son of former US Rep. Jack Kingston (R), claimed the open 1st District Republican nomination outright with a 52% victory over five candidates. The primary victory virtually assures Mr. Kingston of election in November. In open District 10, state Rep. Houston Gaines (R-Athens) was an easy Republican primary winner, capturing 67% against two opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Collins in November.
The race to replace retiring 11th District US Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) will go to a runoff. Surgeon and former congressional candidate John Cowan and Loudermilk chief of staff Rob Adkerson will advance to the second round. The June 16th Republican runoff winner will claim the seat in November.
In solidly Democratic District 13, state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won her party nomination outright with a 56% of the vote against five opponents. She is not a candidate in the special election to directly replace the late US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) but will take the seat in the next Congress with a general election victory. The special election is scheduled for July 28th. The winner will serve only to the end of the current Congress before yielding to Ms. Clark.
Idaho
Sen. Jim Risch (R) recorded a 67% victory over three Republican primary opponents on his way to winning a fourth term. Realtor David Roth won the Democratic primary but will be a definitive underdog to Sen. Risch in November. US Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) were easy winners in their respective Republican primaries.
Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, topped eight minor Republican challengers with 59% of the vote and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into the November election against Terri Pickens, the 2022 Democratic Lt. Governor nominee.
Kentucky
The big news was US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), President Trump’s House Republican nemesis, falling to retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein by a 55-45% clip. US Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) easily secured the Republican US Senate nomination with a solid 60% victory over former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and nine others.
For the Democrats, former Louisville state Representative Charles Booker defeated 2020 US Senate nominee Amy McGrath with a 47-36% victory margin despite being outspent. Rep. Barr appears as a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).
Louisiana
Sen. Bill Cassidy was defeated in Saturday’s Republican primary as he failed to qualify for the runoff in garnering only 25% of the vote. In the runoff are US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and State Treasurer and former US Representative John Fleming. Rep. Letlow will be favored to win the June 27th runoff vote and the general election in November. The Cassidy defeat marks only the second time in modern US history (since WWII) that an incumbent Senator finished third in his own partisan primary.
Oregon
All Beaver State incumbents seeking renomination were easy winners last night. The Governor’s race will be a rematch from 2022 because state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) decisively won her GOP primary opposite state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Ms. Drazan will again square off with Gov. Tina Kotek (D) in the general election.
Pennsylvania
In the Governor’s race, both incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) were unopposed for their party’s nomination. The Governor is favored to win a second term.
The electorates in three competitive Republican U.S. House districts chose their Democratic nominees, and all three races could prove pivotal in determining chamber control in the general election. All Pennsylvania Republican House members were unopposed for renomination.
In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general election campaign in this politically competitive district. State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks overcame former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to secure the Democratic nomination. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.
In the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. This general election race is expected to be another highly competitive contest.
In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held Rep. Perry to a 51-49% victory two years ago scored a 67% victory over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, meaning the November rematch is set.
Turning to the southeastern sector, as expected, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie won the Democratic primary and will now challenge five-term US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (D-Levittown) in one of just three districts nationally that voted for Kamala Harris and sends a Republican to the US House. In the open Democratic 3rd District, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) defeated state Sen. Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia) and surgeon Ala Stanford with 44% of the vote. Mr. Rabb will succeed retiring US Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia).
SENATE
Texas
The Texas Senate Republican runoff is Tuesday, and President Trump’s endorsement this week of Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn has certainly drawn even more attention to this race. But is it the clinching blow? Several points suggest otherwise.
First, both candidates have won multiple statewide campaigns and are very well known within the Republican voting base. Therefore, outside endorsements are not as relevant because the average voter already has strong opinions of the competing candidates.
Second, half of the early voting period is complete, meaning a sizable number of votes have already been cast.
Third, in the most recent races where the President has involved himself, specifically against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), he has vociferously opposed the incumbent. In the Texas race, he is endorsing Mr. Paxton but not directly attacking Sen. Cornyn. The outcome of this runoff election will be very interesting next Tuesday.
HOUSE
CA-48
The San Diego anchored 48th District is supposed to be one of the Republican seats the California Democrats convert under the new redistricting map especially with incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) not seeking re-election. For the second time, a poll has been released showing two Republicans advancing to the general election under the CA jungle primary system.
Survey USA released a new poll for KGTV News in San Diego (5/8/14; 507 CA-48 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and posted San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) and businessman Kevin O’Neill (R) placing first and second with 29 and 10 percent support, respectively. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar leads nine Democrats with just 9% preference.
This is an example of potentially too many candidates from a stronger political party splitting their own vote to the point of being shut out for the general election. Supervisor Desmond is in strong position to advance and will be highly competitive in the general election.
NY-10
Emerson College has released a shock poll from New York City’s 10th Congressional District that shows Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) being crushed in the June 23rd Democratic primary. The EC survey (5/16-17; 450 NY-10 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques; part of a three-district survey project) finds former NYC Comptroller and 2025 mayoral candidate Brad Lander leading the two-term Congressman by a whopping 57-23% count.
TN-9
Due to an unfavorable new congressional redistricting map that leaves him no viable district from which to be elected, US Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) announced that he will not seek re-election if the new map passes all its legal challenges. Mr. Cohen retiring coupled with the defeat of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) brings the open seat count to 65. This number will reduce to 63 when vacancies in California and Georgia are filled in special elections before the general election.
GOVERNOR
Michigan
Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I), despite running well in three-way polling against Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) and US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), announced that he is leaving the race. His reasoning is interesting in citing “the Democrats’ momentum.” Such a comment is surprising considering there is no polling evidence suggesting that an eventual Democratic nominee is pulling away in either the open Governor or open Senate contests.
In fact, in the Michigan Governor’s race, Secretary of State Benson was on the board of the Southern Poverty Law Center, which was federally indicted on 11 counts including wire fraud, bank fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering for allegedly funneling donor funds to extremist groups. While Ms. Benson claims that she had left the board before this activity occurred, certainly her association with the group will be a negative issue in the campaign. Therefore, the Duggan exit is a surprising move.
