SENATE
Massachusetts
The University of Massachusetts at Amherst and WVCB Polling partnered to test the Bay State Democratic electorate with regard to the respondents’ sentiments about the coming US Senate primary election in September of next year.
The pollsters queried 416 likely Democratic primary voters during the October 21-25 period with live interviews. The results found Sen. Ed Markey (D) leading his principal opponent, US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), by a 44-25% margin. When leaners were added, the Senator led Rep. Moulton, 51-28%.
Another member of the Massachusetts House delegation, US Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston), continues to confirm that she is considering also entering the Senate race. In a hypothetical three-way contest, Sen. Markey has an early, though unimpressive, 31-24-20% advantage over Reps. Moulton and Pressley, respectively. When leaners are added, the Senator tops Moulton and Pressley, 35-25-21%.
In 2020, Sen. Markey defended himself against a Democratic primary challenge from then-US Rep. Jospeh P. Kennedy, III. Beginning behind, Sen. Markey rallied to defeat a member of the Kennedy family in their home state Democratic primary with a 55-45% margin. Sen. Markey is again favored to prevail in 2026.
HOUSE
CA-3
Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) announced that he will seek re-election in new District 3, which is more rural than his Sacramento County metro district. Though the Congressman mentioned such an option last week, it is a bit surprising that he is making the move considering he will face Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento).
The new 6th District, which is similar to Rep. Bera’s current seat, will now be open. Former state Senator Richard Pan (D), who had already announced his challenge to Rep. Kiley, now says he will run in District 6 since Rep. Bera has chosen the 3rd CD. The CA-3 seat flips from Republican to Democratic under the new map. Therefore, Rep. Bera will be the favorite to convert the district.
CA-11
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced this week that she will not place her name on the ballot for re-election in 2026, thus ending what will be a 39 year career in the House. Ms. Pelosi was elected in a 1987 special election and has kept the seat through the present day. Her retirement possibility intensified when state Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) announced his intention to run for the House last month. Already, former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) campaign manager Sakat Chakrabarti (D) had entered the race months ago.
While it was highly likely that Ms. Pelosi would have again won, it was questionable whether she wanted to enter what would have been an active campaign at age 86. Apparently, the answer is no. Expect more Democrats to come forward now that the retirement decision has been made. The CA-11 district is one of the safest Democratic seats in the country and will remain so under the new redistricting configuration that voters adopted on Tuesday. The 11th will change little under the new map and is basically the city of San Francisco.
Candidates will compete in a jungle primary format on June 2, with the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or percentage attained advancing to the general election. Sen. Wiener, who represents virtually the same area in the legislature will be a heavy favorite to become Rep. Pelosi’s successor.
CA-40
Under the new California map that will be in effect with the passage of Proposition 50 on Tuesday night, veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) says he will run for re-election in new District 40. This will put him on a collision course with fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) for one of the few districts in the state that is prone to elect a Republican. Rep. Calvert’s current 41st District was eviscerated into several parts giving him nowhere favorable to run. Rep. Calvert, a key member of the House Appropriations Committee, was first elected in 1992.
IL-4
In a surprise move at candidate filing time for the 2026 March midterm primary, four-term Illinois US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who failed in an attempt to win the 2023 Chicago Mayor’s race, did not file for re-election. This opened the door for his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia (D), to step up. Rep. Garcia was mum about his retirement plans in order to pave the way for his anointed candidate to take the seat virtually without opposition.
ME-1
In one of the many Democratic primary challenges forming around the country, veteran US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), whose daughter, Hannah Pingree, is running for Governor, has drawn a significant renomination opponent. State Rep. Tiffany Roberts (D-South Berwick) announced this week her congressional challenge to the nine-term incumbent. Rep. Pingree will, of course, be favored in the contest, but it will likely be a battle to monitor.
ME-2
Four-term US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), who holds the most Republican district in the country that sends a Democrat to the House, announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. Facing a difficult primary, likely against State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap who is to the left of Rep. Golden, would then have faced a hard-fought general election against former Governor Paul LePage (R). Maine’s 2nd District is a seat that both President Trump and Mr. LePage have carried three times. This being the case, the Congressman decided that serving four terms, which is equivalent to the Maine legislature’s term limit, makes it the right time for him to retire.
With former Speaker Pelosi and Messrs. Golden and Illinois US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D) retiring, along with New Jersey US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) being elected Governor this week, the House open seat count will rise to 36 once the two special elections are held to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.
MI-7
The 7th District of Michigan was the only open seat in the country that changed political parties in 2024, and a new poll suggests history could repeat itself in 2026. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling tested the MI-7 electorate (10/27-28; 557 MI-7 registered voters; text & live interview) and found two Democrats holding slight leads over freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte).
According to PPP, retired Navy SEAL and ex-Obama White House aide Matt Maasdam (D) leads Rep. Barrett, 43-39%. If former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink were the Democratic nominee, she would lead Rep. Barrett, 45-41%. Both poll results are within the polling margin of error, meaning this race will likely go down to the wire in the toss-up category.
GOVERNOR
California
After publicly commenting that he might enter the open California Governor’s race, Golden State US Senator Alex Padilla (D) announced that he will not become a gubernatorial candidate. The field is crowded with no clear leader, but early polling suggested the Senator was not performing well. This obviously helped lead to his decision to bypass the Governor’s race and concentrate on his duties in the US Senate.
New Jersey
In the Garden State, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who polling suggested was actually approaching the toss-up realm, lost to Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill by approximately 14 percentage points. This is first time in 71 years that one party will have claimed the Governorship in three consecutive New Jersey elections.
Virginia
As expected in Virginia, Democratic former US Representative Abigail Spanberger easily defeated Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The biggest surprise was the Attorney General’s election where incumbent Republican Jason Miyares fell to controversial Democrat Jay Jones. The Democratic nominee was caught sending texts advocating killing his Republican opponents. Additionally, ads from police officers were quoting a previous Jones’ comment saying that crime would ease if more police officers were killed. Still, Jones recorded a 53% victory.
STATE AND LOCAL
California
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s gerrymandered congressional map obtained voter approval in landslide proportions in the November 4 special election, meaning the Democrats could possibly gain an additional five seats in the Golden State delegation.
Detroit
As expected, Detroit City Council president and former state Representative Mary Sheffield (D) easily won the mayoral position with a 3:1 landslide victory over local pastor Solomon Kinloch (D). Polling suggested that Ms. Sheffield would have an easy run in the general election. She will replace three-term incumbent Mike Duggan who was elected as a Democrat, but is running for Governor as an Independent.
Minneapolis
Mayor Jacob Frey (D) won re-election in the second round of Ranked Choice Voting on Wednesday. The Tuesday night raw vote tally found Mr. Frey posting the lead with 42% of the vote while state Rep. Omar Fateh (D-Minneapolis), a Democratic Socialist, posted 32%. The RCV round clinched the victory for Mayor Frey with 50.03% of the secondary vote as compared to Mr. Fateh’s 44.4 percent.
New Orleans
At-large City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D), as expected, was easily elected as New Orleans next Mayor. The result had been expected when Ms. Moreno came close to claiming an outright majority in the initial election. She will replace outgoing Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D), who was ineligible to seek a third four-year stint under the city’s local term limit law.
New York City
State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, running as an avowed socialist, appears not only to have won the mayor’s position, but surprisingly did so with majority support. Mr. Mamdani was running ahead in polling during the entire general election cycle. As he did in the Democratic primary, he bested former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, this time running as the nominee of the Fight and Deliver Party. Mr. Mamdani slightly exceeded the 50% mark as compared to Mr. Cuomo’s 42%. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who had been polling in the high teens, managed to draw only 7% of the vote.
Ohio
The Ohio redistricting process was completed during the week. The state has a unique system. A commission of bipartisan elected officials first considers a proposed map. If the seven members, including the state’s Governor, approve a map with a unanimous vote, the plan becomes law without going to the legislature. Such is the case with the state’s new congressional map. Expect Republicans to gain one seat here, with two other Democratic districts becoming competitive.
Seattle
Though polling suggested otherwise, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) has a substantial 54-46% lead over his Democratic Socialist opponent, Katie Wilson. Polling had suggested that an upset was possible, since the Mayor’s job approval ratings are low. While the final result may tighten, Mayor Harrell’s margin may be large enough for him to soon declare victory.
Virginia
The Virginia elections, and the Democrats’ huge net gain of 13 seats in the House of Delegates, means that redistricting will occur in that state. The Democratic map suggests they can reduce Republicans to just one congressional seat of the state’s eleven. This would mean a net loss of four Republican seats.
