SENATE
Alaska
The Alaska Survey Research organization conducted one of their regular Last Frontier electorate polls, and they again produce numbers suggesting that Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is an underdog versus former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D), but his standing since the primary election is improving. In the August 18th jungle primary, Sen. Sullivan finished eight points behind Ms. Peltola. The new survey (10/1-3; 1,512 AK likely general election voters; online) finds the two major party candidates virtually tied among the four qualifiers for the general election ballot. The ballot test results projects Peltola with a tight 47-45% lead.
In the Alaska electoral system that sends four candidates to the general election, should no one score majority support Ranked Choice Voting takes effect. The ASR poll attempted to project what the RCV totals would be, and they find Peltola winning with an equally small percentage after some second and third choices are added to the aggregate count.
Mississippi
While the Magnolia State continues to be a Republican bastion, Democrats are now starting to spend money to promote their candidate, Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, national Democrats are planning to spend over $2 million in the closing campaign weeks in a long shot effort to upset Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) who is running for a second full term. Originally, Ms. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the seat when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned for health reasons. She then won a subsequent special election to serve the balance of Cochran’s final term and then won a full term in her own right in 2020.
The national Democrats’ move is one to expand the competitive playing field, giving them further options to attempt to convert the four Republican seats they need to claim the Senate majority.
New Hampshire
St. Anselm’s College Survey Center, a regular New Hampshire pollster, fielded one of their regular large sample online surveys in late September and just released the results. The poll, conducted for AARP (9/28-29; 1,042 likely NH general election voters), finds four-term US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) extending his lead over former US Senator John E. Sununu (R). The ballot test projects Mr. Pappas to a 51-44% advantage, outside the polling margin of error. Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring.
Ohio
Here we see another instance of conflicting polls being released of the same race within relatively the same time window. In the Senate race pitting appointed Senator Jon Husted (R) against former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), CNN (conducted by SSRS Research; 9/29-10/5; 760 OH likely general election voters; live interview & online) produced a ballot test result finding a 49-43% Brown advantage.
Conversely, the co/efficient research organization (10/5-6; 925 OH likely general election voters; live interview & text) found a much different result. They see Sen. Husted having a 44-43% edge. The polling progression is similar to the 2024 Senate race when current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) unseated then-Sen. Brown who was then running for a fourth consecutive term. The last few weeks of campaigning will determine the outcome of this campaign.
HOUSE
KY-6
For the second time, we see polling data suggesting Democrats could score an upset in the district that Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) is vacating to run for the Senate. A just released Lake Research Partners survey (for the House Majority PAC; 9/30-10/4; 400 KY-6 likely general election voters) projects Democrat attorney Zach Dembo leading Republican former state Senator Ralph Alvarado by a 48-45% count. When the two minor candidates are added to the questionnaire, Mr. Zembo’s lead expands to 46-40-3-1%.
NC-1
The new 1st Congressional District designed in the North Carolina legislature earlier this year to elect a Republican does not appear to be falling into line. US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) looks to be defying the political projection odds, at least according to certain internal polling. The latest data comes from GQR Research for the Davis campaign (9/29-10/4; 500 NC-1 likely general election voters; live interview) and sees the Congressman holding a 47-39% lead over 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army officer.
TN-5
We are now seeing polls conducted in races where the incumbent was defeated in the primary election. In Tennessee’s new 5th CD that stretches from the Nashville suburbs to downtown Memphis, Republican Charlie Hatcher defeated two-term US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) in the early August Republican primary.
In the general election, Mr. Hatcher faces Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder (D). Impact Research conducted a poll for the Molder campaign (9/29-10/1; 552 TN-5 likely general election voters; live interview) and found the new Republican nominee’s lead to be 46-41 percent in a district that the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians rate as having a 59.4R – 38.7D partisan lean.
TX-2
Another poll of a race with a defeated incumbent during the nomination process was also released, this one from Texas. In March, state Rep. Steve Toth (R-Conroe) defeated 2nd District US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble).
In the first general election survey released from Impact Research for Democratic nominee Shaun Finnie (9/29-10/4; 501 TX-2 likely general election voters; live interview), Mr. Toth leads the race 46-37%. In a new district that the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians rate as having a 62.0R – 35.9D partisan lean, Mr. Toth’s November victory margin will likely be larger than this poll indicates.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
The same Alaska Survey Research poll covered in the Senate section above (10/1-3; 1,512 AK likely general election voters; online) also tested the open Governor’s race. Among the four finalists, three are Republicans but they are splitting the vote to allow the lone Democrat, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, to lead the race.
The ballot test shows Kreiss-Tomkins pulling 48% support. In second place is former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson with a preference figure of 27%. In third and fourth position with 15 and 10 percent, are former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and ex-state Attorney General Treg Taylor. Moving to a Ranked Choice Voting round shows Mr. Kreiss-Tomkins breaking the 50% majority threshold.
Arizona
Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) released her internal GBAO survey (9/30-10/5; 600 AZ likely general election voters; live interview) that projects the first-term incumbent to only a 49-45% lead over US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), which is an improvement for the Republican. The Hobbs campaign is sending warning signs to her voters that the race will get closer and attacks Turning Point USA for spending upwards of $20 million to run a grassroots operation with the goal of unseating her. The organization is headquartered in Arizona.
Nevada
Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is on the ballot seeking a second term, and Nevada’s typical voting history of producing very close election results again sees a tight Governor’s race according to the most recently released survey. The poll, from Noble Predictive Insights (9/22-26; 800 NV registered voters; 708 NV likely general election voters; online), finds Gov. Lombardo leading Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) by only a 42-40% margin.
New Hampshire
As covered in the New Hampshire Senate section above, St. Anselm’s College Survey Center, released the results of their latest regular New Hampshire poll (9/28-29; 1,042 likely NH general election voters). While Democrat Chris Pappas was leading the Senate race, the Governor’s contest produced a much different result. According to the St. Anselm data, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) continues to post a significant advantage over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D). In this poll, the lead is 52-45%, virtually the opposite partisan result found in the Senate race.
Ohio
As we saw in the Ohio Senate numbers (see Senate section above), both CNN and the co/efficient research organization tested the Ohio electorate in an overlapping time frame and found significantly different ballot test results. CNN (conducted by SSRS Research; 9/29-10/5; 760 OH likely general election voters; live interview & online) projected Democratic former Ohio Health Department Director Amy Acton to a rather substantial 50-42% lead over businessman and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
Just like in the Senate race, co/efficient (10/5-6; 925 OH likely general election voters; live interview & text) arrived at a much different conclusion. They see Mr. Ramaswamy posting a two point, 45-43% lead over Dr. Acton.
Oregon
The Oregon Governor’s race could be the surprise of election night. Another poll shows the race between first term incumbent Tina Kotek (D) and state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Klamath Falls) locked in a toss-up battle.
DMH Research, polling for the Oregonian news service (9/24-10/1; 549 OR likely general election voters) sees Gov. Kotek leading only 46-44% in the strongly Democratic state. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 54.7D – 40.6R partisan lean for the state. Earlier polls had Ms. Drazan leading by a similarly close margin. In 2022 the two opposed each other and Ms. Kotek prevailed, 47-44%. This is a race to watch on election night.
South Carolina
The Palmetto State Governor’s race has drawn little attention since the bruising June primary and runoff concluded. This week, we see a released Resonance Media Services study (9/28-10/3; 638 SC likely voters), the first public poll since August, that finds Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) leading state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Columbia) by a 45-35% count. Mr. Wilson is expected to easily win the general election and replace term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) next year.
Texas
We now see three consecutive polls finding three-term Gov. Greg Abbott (R) trailing state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), which is a surprising turn of events. Guidant Polling and Strategy (polling for the Public First Action Super PAC; 9/20-28; 800 TX likely general election voters) posts a Hinojosa lead of 46-42%. Siena University (polling for the New York Times; 9/21-30; 615 TX likely general election voters) sees the Hinojosa edge at a similar 49-46%. YouGov (9/20-10/5; 3,625 TX likely general election voters) projects the difference at one point: Hinojosa leading 48-47%.
Three other survey firms, conducted during the same time frame, find different results. Fox News (9/24-28; 881 TX likely general election voters) shows Gov. Abbott holding a 52-47% advantage. Similarly, the Big Data Poll (testing for the Public Polling Project; 9/24-26; 698 TX likely general election voters) projects the Governor leading 49-44%. A third, from Stratus Intelligence (for Texans for a Conservative Majority Super PAC; 9/22-24; 865 TX likely general election voters) found the Governor leading 50-45%.
All six polls were conducted within the same time period. So many conflicting results suggest the gubernatorial campaign is becoming very close.
Vermont
Gov. Phil Scott, a five-term Republican in one of the most reliable of Democratic states, is on the ballot for a sixth two-year term this year. His opponent is economist Amanda Janoo (D). Another poll is returning a close contest, which is a change from the way the past four campaigns have concluded. State Navigate released their poll of the Governor’s race (10/2-4; 948 VT likely general election voters; text & online) and finds Gov. Scott leading Ms. Janoo by only a 46-43% margin, far below his previous landslide victory margins.
