SENATE
Georgia
A new YouGov online Georgia Senate race poll (9/15-18; 3,447 GA registered voters; 3,071 likely general election voters) sees incumbent Democratic Senator and potential 2028 presidential candidate Jon Ossoff leading Republican Congressman Mike Collins (R-Jackson) by a 51-43% margin among likely general election voters. This result is consistent with all other published polls. Each shows Sen. Ossoff leading and taking advantage of his huge financial resource advantage that he has enjoyed throughout this campaign.
Louisiana
Though US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) appeared as a lock to win the general election after she upset Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) for the Republican nomination, a new Hart Research Associates survey conducted for the Jamie Davis campaign (9/17-19; 500 LA likely general election voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Letlow’s lead over Mr. Davis, a farmer and 2023 state Representative candidate, running only at 48-44 percent. Her surprisingly small lead, however, is reflective of close polling continuing to surface in almost every race.
Maine
After slightly trailing in polling for several weeks, we see a second consecutive poll finding Sen. Susan Collins (R) pulling back into the lead, something that never happened in her polling progression six years ago. In her 2020 race against former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), Sen. Collins recorded a 50.4 – 41.9% victory, an 8.5-point margin without ever forging ahead in a poll.
Currently, the Siena University poll for the New York Times (9/15-22; 619 ME likely general election voters) produced a ballot test showing Sen. Collins topping former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), 49-46 percent.
Montana
Another survey again confirms that Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme is very likely to win the open Senate general election with just a plurality vote. Because Democrat Alani Bankhead would not withdraw as Democratic Party leaders were urging, the chances of left of center voters coalescing around Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, dissipated. An Aspect Strategic poll (9/7-15; 715 MT likely voters) finds Mr. Alme continuing to lead Mr. Bodnar and Ms. Bankhead, this time 44-32-14 percent.
New Hampshire
After seeing several polls suggesting that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) had pulled even with US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), two new surveys restore Rep. Pappas to a discernible edge. The Siena University poll for the New York Times also surveyed the New Hampshire electorate (9/15-22; 613 NH likely general election voters). Their findings yield a 50-45% Pappas advantage. The University of New Hampshire’s latest poll (9/17-21; 1,542 NH likely voters; online) also sees a swing toward Pappas. Their ballot test finds the Congressman leading Mr. Sununu, 50-42%.
Ohio
Sen. Jon Husted’s (R) campaign, including money from outside organizations, is scheduled to outspend former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by a $90 to $60.2 million advantage not including a new announced expenditure of $30 million from the cryptocurrency Super PAC, Fairshake. The group spent lavishly in 2024 to unseat Sen. Brown. As then-chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Brown was one of the fiercest cryptocurrency critics.
A most recent Quantus Insights poll (9/21-23; 695 OH likely voters; SMS text) suggests that the Husted advertising message is already working because he has gained ground on Sen. Brown. According to the Quantus ballot test, the two candidates are tied at 45 percent.
Texas
According to a report from The Down-Ballot political blog, the much talked about Republican money advantage in this election cycle is coming to the surface. The Senate Leadership Fund, through its Texas affiliate, is booking $100 million in advertising to support GOP nominee Ken Paxton against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin).
Some of this money could be coming from the reported $415 million that President Trump’s leadership PAC (MAGA, Inc.) reports because the organization is working with other Super PACs. For Paxton, the move is needed as the Talarico campaign, through the June 30th campaign disclosure reports, had a cash-on-hand advantage of $21.5 million to $1.75 million.
HOUSE
CA-4
More action is coming from the double-Democratic general election in California’s 4th District anchored in the Napa Valley. The New Leadership Now PAC has increased its spending to $1.2 million, helping Democratic challenger Eric Jones in his quest to unseat veteran US Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa).
Additionally, the jungle primary’s third place finisher with a vote total just one percentage point behind Jones, Republican Ray Riehle, announced an endorsement of his former opponent. Mr. Riehle is sending messages encouraging Republicans not to skip the 4th District congressional race because of no GOP candidate, but rather to vote for Mr. Jones as a change agent.
ME-2
The new regional University of New Hampshire poll (9/17-21; 627 ME-2 likely voters; online) sees a major swing toward Democrat Matt Dunlap. While former Gov. Paul LePage (R) had been running ahead or even since the June primary, this new ballot test finds the ex-Governor trailing 45-51 percent.
MI-4
It was always assumed that the battle in Michigan’s southwestern congressional district would be a tight contest, and a new survey confirms such a projected outcome. GBAO, polling for Democratic candidate Sean McCann, a Kalamazoo state Senator (9/13-16; 500 MI-4 likely general election voters; live interview & text), finds a virtual tie between the two contenders. According to the GBAO results, Sen. McCann tops eight-term US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) by a slight 47-46% count.
MN-1
As we are seeing around the country, another US House race is reporting close polling numbers. As part of a series of congressional races around the country, the Democratic firm GBAO, polling for Democratic candidates and their outside allies, again finds a GOP incumbent thought to be safe for the November election devolving into a highly competitive campaign. In southern Minnesota, 1st District US Rep. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm) is trailing educator Jake Johnson (D) by a percentage point, 46-47 percent.
The GBAO poll was conducted during the September 18-21 period and featured a sampling universe of 500 likely voters. The respondents were interviewed via phone with some responding to follow-up text messaging.
OK-5
In Oklahoma City, we see another safe district returning close polling numbers. The Democratic polling firm, GBAO surveying for Democratic nominee Jena Nelson, released their 5th District poll (9/17-20; 500 OK-5 likely general election voters; live interview & text).
The results find three-term US Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) leading Ms. Nelson, the 2022 Democratic nominee for the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction, by a tightening 48-43% margin. While her victory margin may be down, Rep. Bice is still favored to win re-election on November 3rd.
PA-7 & 10
The Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research released two polls for competitive Pennsylvania congressional districts with both results finding the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent. The polls, however, lack reliability.
The first, in politically marginal District 7 (9/9-20; 357 PA-7 registered voters; live interview & online), finds former union president Bob Brooks (D) leading freshman US Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) by a 45-40% margin. In District 10 (9/9-20; 390 PA-10 registered voters; live interview & online), former news anchor and 2024 Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson tops seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), 47-44%.
In each case, the number of likely voters found in this poll takes the sample size below acceptable levels. In the 7th District, only 48% said they are likely to vote thus reducing the relevant sample size to 171 respondents, far below the minimum 300 to conduct a reliable survey. In the 10th, 55% said they are likely to vote, reducing the salient sample size to 214 voters, again way below the 300 minimum. Additionally, a sampling period of 11 days is much longer than acceptable, thus further compromising the ballot test results. There is no doubt, however, that both races will be close on election night and must continue to be rated as toss-ups.
Governor
Georgia
The online YouGov poll (9/15-18; 3,447 GA registered voters; 3,071 likely general election voters) mentioned in the Georgia Senate section (see GA Senate above), sees a very different gubernatorial result when compared with the Senate numbers. While Democratic Sen. Ossoff has a lead beyond the polling margin of error, the same sampling universe places Republican businessman Rick Jackson ahead of former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), by a 47-44% count within the likely voter universe.
Michigan
For the first time since the August 4th primary, a poll is showing the open Governor’s race close. The co/efficient Republican firm released their Michigan gubernatorial survey (9/21-23; 843 MI likely general election voters; live interview & text) that posts Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) leading US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) by only a 47-44% margin. Prior to this poll, Ms. Benson had been leading the race with an average margin between 7.4 and 11.5 percentage points according to six polling aggregator organizations.
New England
The University of New Hampshire again conducted a series of large sample online regional polls throughout New England during the September 17-21 period, and the results detect a major swing toward the Democrats. In Governor’s races the biggest surprise comes in Vermont where the ballot test finds five-term Gov. Phil Scott (R) trailing economist Amanda Janoo (D), 49-43 percent.
While New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) had been running well ahead of former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D), the new ballot test shows a diminished 47-43% Ayotte advantage. In Rhode Island, where businesswoman Helena Foulkes defeated Gov. Dan McKee in the September 9th Democratic primary, the new party nominee is leading a three-way general election race, but with only 44%. The huge jump in home heating oil prices, an estimated 81% increase from last year, could be the element that is causing the large partisan swing.
STATE AND LOCAL
Los Angeles
While Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) may have skirted an aggressive campaign from Republican Spencer Pratt in the June primary, her troubles are far from over. A just released Hart Research Associates poll (for the Raman campaign; 9/1-6; 600 LA likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds Mayor Bass trailing City Councilwoman Nithiya Raman, 39-44%. More troubling for the Mayor, those firmly committed to Raman comprise 47% of her support base versus only 39% of Mayor Bass’ firmly committed universe.
A second poll, from the University of California at Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times (9/15-20; 2,150 Los Angeles city likely voters; online) sees Raman posting an even larger 39-28% plurality. This poll has a huge, undecided factor, but Mayor Bass recording a support figure below 30% shows significant political trouble. Since Mayor Bass drew only 34.3% of the initial vote in the June 2nd jungle primary, her re-election chances continue to dim.
