SENATE
Alabama
A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville who is running for Governor instead of re-election.
Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.
Kansas
The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain.
If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic US House member, US Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.
Massachusetts
Last week, US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the MA primary vote is scheduled for September 15.
New Hampshire
A new co/efficient survey (9/10-12; 904 NH likely general election voters; 346 Republican primary likely voters; live interview & text) confirms that former US Senator John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election very competitive. According to the co/efficient ballot test, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) would lead Mr. Sununu, 46-43%, a virtual tie. In a Republican primary ballot test, Mr. Sununu tops former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, 40-23 percent.
Mr. Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving three terms in the House. He defeated then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to win the Senate seat. Six years later, Ms. Shaheen returned for a re-match and unseated Sen. Sununu in the first Obama presidential election year. She won two further terms and is retiring once this Congress ends. Mr. Sununu has not been on the ballot since losing his 2008 re-election campaign.
Texas
The Senate Republican leadership continues in their efforts to convince US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) to stay out of the US Senate Republican primary. A Super PAC supporting Rep. Hunt has been spending heavily in running ads around the state promoting the Houston Congressman.
The Senate Leadership Fund contracted a poll to help convince Rep. Hunt to run for re-election instead of the Senate. According to the Ragnar Research survey (9/20-22; 760 TX likely Republican primary voters; live interview), Sen. John Cornyn (R) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are tied at 39% apiece on the ballot test. This tally is a major improvement for Sen. Cornyn who was trailing badly in early polling. If Rep Hunt is added to the ballot test, the result breaks 32-32-17% for Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt in that order.
The result of the Congressman entering appears to be forcing Cornyn and Paxton into a runoff, with Mr. Hunt on the political sidelines. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, with a runoff date of May 26 if no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote.
Virginia
Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office, Lt. Governor and the US House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.
HOUSE
AZ-7
As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won this week’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.
When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; October 7 special primary; December 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; November 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.
TX-29
Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging US Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37% of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.
TX-32
Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Mr. Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.
GOVERNOR
California
A surprising California Emerson College Poll (9/15-16; 1,000 CA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) was released during the week providing bad news to Sen. Alex Padilla (D). The Senator is reportedly considering entering the open Governor’s race.
The ballot test again finds former US Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only a 16% preference figure. Following are two Republicans totaling 18% of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8%). Sen. Alex Padilla (D) is next posting only 7% support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator.
Another gubernatorial entry has emerged. Former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced that he will join the crowded Governor’s primary calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Mr. Calderon is 40 years of age. The former four-term Assemblyman’s father, Charles Calderon (D), served in the state Senate and Assembly. He was elected Majority Leader in both chambers during his legislative career.
Minnesota
While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (9/15-18; 568 MN likely voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41% margin.
The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47% job approval rating that features only 20% strongly approving and 34% strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the US House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.
New Jersey
Defying the consistent trend showing US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), two new surveys reveal a change in momentum.
According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, their National Research poll results (9/16-18; 600 NJ likely general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45% edge over Ms. Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (9/8-10; 600 NJ likely general election voters) saw Mr. Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45% margin of his Democratic opponent. A new Emerson College poll (9/22-23; 935 NJ very and somewhat likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) confirms the National Research result. The EC ballot test finds the two candidates tied at 43%.
It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the November 4 general election. Additionally, Mr. Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68% win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total.
Oklahoma
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Virginia
A series of three September polls all find former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (9/3-5; 512 VA likely voters) posts Ms. Spanberger to a 48-43% edge. Christopher Newport University (9/8-14; 808 VA registered voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40%. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (9/22-23; 1,024 VA likely voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43%, also in Spanberger’s favor.
From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is November 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.
Wisconsin
Badger State US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced late this week that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.
The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Mr. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.
Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term. We can expect to see a toss-up open seat gubernatorial election here next year.
STATE AND LOCAL
Boston
After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the November 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.
