Lt. Gov. Pamela Evett rising to the top
A new poll suggests the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary has a new leader, and it is not any of the more established political names one might expect to hear.
The Trafalgar Group just released a new October poll for the South Carolina Republican primary (9/30-10/2; 1,094 SC likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the race’s top finisher is Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. From these results, Ms. Evette edges US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Attorney General Alan Wilson, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), 20-16-12-9-1%, respectively with an undecided percentage of 41. All figures are rounded to the highest number.
Obviously, the standing is such that any of the major candidates can still win the party nomination through a June primary and subsequent runoff, but Evette rising to the top over better known candidates such as Mace, Wilson and Norman suggests the Lt. Governor possesses underlying political strength.
Pamela Evette was the first Lt. Governor to be elected on a South Carolina gubernatorial ticket. Before the 2022 election, the office was voted upon separately. Combined with Henry McMaster, who at the end of this term will retire as South Carolina’s longest serving Governor, the Republican top of the ticket team recorded a 58-41% victory margin.
The trend here, however, is bad for Rep. Mace. Though she is a close second in this poll, which is commensurate with other early surveys that also find a bunched field and the top person only hovering around the 20% mark, her crosstab results reveal warning signs.
In looking at the favorability indexes from the Republican primary voter sampling universe, Rep. Mace scores an upside-down 40:48% favorable to unfavorable ratio. This compares poorly with Ms. Evette (23:12%), AG Wilson (43:25%), and Rep. Norman (32:24%). With 74% saying they are unfamiliar with state Sen. Kimbrell, his small index becomes insignificant as it relates to the state of the open Governor’s race.
Geographically, LG Evette is showing strength, most particularly in the Myrtle Beach area as she leads there with 33% preference as compared to her closest rival, Rep. Mace, who scores 20% support. This is a bit surprising since Ms. Evette is from the Greenville area. She leads there, too, but with a smaller seven-point margin, also ahead of Rep. Mace.
The Mace trouble spot, however, comes with very poor favorability ratings in her hometown Charleston region, remembering that all of these respondents are likely Republican Party primary voters. While her statewide favorability ratio is 40:48% as cited above, in the Charleston DMA (Designated Market Area) her index is a very poor 39:55% positive to negative. Those who view her “very unfavorably” register 35%.
In fact, throughout the seven DMA regions that Trafalgar segments, Ms. Mace’s average “very unfavorable” score is 28.1%. This compares poorly with her “very favorable” average within the same regions which reach only 10.9 percent.
Part of Rep. Mace’s long-term strategy while in Congress was to become a national media figure. She has achieved her goal, but the results may not be as intended.
While the Governor’s primary is many months away and much can happen to change the eventual outcome, the Trafalgar Group poll reveals not only hidden strength for Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, but also heretofore unforeseen negatives for Rep. Nancy Mace within the statewide and regional Republican voter base.
