Why strongly Republican-leaning districts slipped away in a surprising wave election
Now that fewer seats remain in the uncalled category, and those that do appear to have a clear victory direction, we can begin analyzing what went wrong for the losing incumbents.
The Dave’s Redistricting App organization has developed a partisan lean formula for every congressional district. This data is especially useful because it draws from not only presidential results but also on most down-ballot races within each district across multiple election cycles. The higher the lean toward one party, the stronger that party typically performs in a normal election year.
With North Carolina Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) conceding yesterday and another Tar Heel State veteran, Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk), likely to soon follow, it appears 47 Republican incumbents will have lost their seats. In 34 of those 47 districts, the partisan lean favored the GOP. The two most extreme examples are the districts of Reps. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN-4) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO-4).
The DesJarlais CD carries a partisan lean 35.7 percentage points stronger than the Democratic benchmark. Though the race remains technically uncalled, he is likely to lose once the state reports the initial final count on Monday.
In Rep. Boebert’s eastern Colorado district, in what should be the safest Republican seat in the state, the partisan lean favors Republicans by 24.4 percentage points. These two seats will sit at the top of the GOP’s 2028 target list and represent districts the party never should have lost, even in an unfavorable year like 2026.
Other members losing with double-digit partisan leans in their favor are:
Reps. Victoria Spartz (IN-5; partisan lean 17.4), Jeff Crank (CO-5; 17.2), NV-2 open seat (13.3), SC-1 open seat (13.0), Addison McDowell (NC-6; 12.2), Virginia Foxx (NC-5; 12.0), Brad Knott (NC-13; 11.8), Max Miller (OH-7; 11.4), Tim Moore (NC-14; 11.0), Richard Hudson (NC-9; 10.9), Mike Carey (OH-15; 10.3), Ann Wagner (MO-2; 10.0), and Rob Wittman (VA-1; 10.0).
The concentration of losses among strongly Republican-leaning seats in North Carolina and Colorado warrants further investigation into why both states swung so sharply against Republican candidates.
In a wave election of this scale, multiple factors are usually at work, some regional, some national, and others tied to individual candidates or campaigns. Party strategists will need to examine each of these Republican-lean districts individually to determine why they flipped Democratic. The explanations may or may not be uniform across the country.
Another 13 defeated Republican members represented districts with Democratic leans. In a bad year for their party, these losses can largely be explained by the electorate returning to its underlying partisan preference, driven in part by higher Democratic turnout. This is especially true for incumbents who had held their seats for multiple terms.
Those members from the most Republican seat to the least in the pro-Democratic lean category are:
Reps. Derrick Van Orden (WI-3; 0.4 Democratic lean), Gabe Evans (CO-8; 1.3), Tom Barrett (MI-7; 1.4), MI-10 open seat (1.6), CA-48 open seat (1.9), Rob Bresnahan (PA-8; 2.1), Ryan Mackenzie (PA-7; 2.8), Monica De La Cruz (TX-15; 4.6), David Valadao (CA-22; 4.9), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1; 5.5), Kevin Kiley (CA-6; 6.8), Mike Lawler (NY-17; 6.8), and James Gallagher (CA-1; 11.1).
More will become clear as final votes continue to be tabulated. Once states certify the results and publish official numbers, rigorous analysis can begin. Early post-election commentary often relies on exit polls, which are frequently flawed. Only when the certified figures are available does the real assessment begin.
