Van Epps and Behn advance to special general election
Last night, the 2025-26 special election cycle featured the preliminary vote from the third of four congressional special elections, and we now see nominees from both parties emerging in Tennessee’s vacated 7th District.
For the Republicans, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded Republican primary. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win over a non-elected official and two fellow Nashville area state Representatives.
Mr. Van Epps and Ms. Behn now advance into the special general election scheduled for December 2. The winner will fill the balance of the current term and, of course, be eligible to run for a full term in the regular 2026 election cycle. Former Congressman Mark Green (R) resigned in July to accept a position in the private sector, thus creating the vacancy and necessitating a special election.
The 7th District is strongly Republican, but clearly the Democrats are going to make a run to score an upset. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean yields a 55.1 – 42.1 Republican to Democratic ratio. Both President Trump and Congressman Green exceeded the partisan lean in 2024. Mr. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 7th District, 60.4 – 38.1%. Rep. Green was re-elected to a fourth term with a similar 59.5 – 38.1% victory margin.
The 7th includes eleven western Tennessee counties and parts of three others. One of the split counties is Davidson, which means part of the city of Nashville lies within the 7th District’s domain. The other major population center is Montgomery County, which houses the city of Clarksville, home of former Rep. Green.
The primary turnout suggests that this race could be close in December. The total Republican participation factor was 36,854 individuals. Total Democratic turnout was 31,002, not far behind the GOP figure. The aggregate turnout for the two primaries was 67,856, which is just about average for a special congressional primary when measured against similar elections around the country. The general election turnout is expected to be higher but may be under 100,000 voters if the primary is any indication.
In comparison, the 2024 general election congressional turnout was 322,656, obviously way ahead of last night’s report. In the last midterm, 2022, which would be a better comparison since we are currently in a midterm cycle, the participation figure was 180,822, or only 56% of the presidential election cycle turnout, which is a larger drop-off rate (44%) than average. Usually, we see drop-offs from a presidential year to the succeeding midterm in the 35% range.
Mr. Van Epps recorded majority support in the Republican primary at 51.5%. His closest competitors, state Reps. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) and Gino Bulso (R-Brentwood), received 25.3% and 10.9%, respectively. None of the other eight candidates managed to reach 6% support, though state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) dropped out of the race after President Trump endorsed Mr. Van Epps. Rep. Reeves then also publicly supported the eventual winner.
