TX-18: Menefee Wins Special

Count on seeing a big Lone Star State primary night in March

After a very long special election cycle to replace the late Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) who passed away in March, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) won the special replacement election on Saturday night. Mr. Menefee will be sworn into the House and serve the balance of the current term.

Rep-Elect Menefee defeated former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, 68-32%. When the final votes are tallied, it appears that approximately 27,500 individuals will have cast ballots, a very low number. 

The two finalists were forced into a runoff because no one received majority support in the November 4 initial special election. In a field of 16 candidates, Menefee and Edwards finished first and second with 29 and 26% of the vote, respectively. The runoff obviously produced a more convincing victory margin for Mr. Menefee.

The Menefee victory brings the House party division count to 218R – 214D with three seats, two Republican (CA-1 [LaMalfa] and GA-14 [Greene]) and one Democratic (NJ-11 [Sherrill], remaining vacant. 

The Congressman-Elect’s tenure in the House may be short lived, however. On March 3, both he and Ms. Edwards will compete in the 2026 regular election primary for new District 18 against veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston). Because of the 2025 redistricting map, the 18th District, while still fully contained within Harris County and solidly Democratic, is considerably different than the district in which Menefee prevailed on Saturday. 

The new 18th sees only 26% of the current constituency carrying over from the 18th that was drawn in 2021 and hosted the special election. Almost 65% of the new constituency comes from Rep. Green’s current 9th CD, with just over 8% transferring from District 29 (Rep. Sylvia Garcia-R) and slivers coming from Districts 7 (Rep. Lizzie Fletcher-D) and 22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), according to the statisticians from The Down Ballot political blog. 

Therefore, the geography would favor Rep. Green winning renomination and limiting Mr. Menefee to serving just eleven months in Congress.

Despite Rep. Green’s geographic edge, the first public poll of a proposed primary election among the three contenders surprisingly favored Mr. Menefee. According to the Lake Research Partners poll (12/15-21; 455 TX-18 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), it was Mr. Menefee who led Rep. Green and Ms. Edwards, 41-35-13%, suggesting that Rep. Green may not be the overwhelming favorite to win the party nomination as most observers initially believed.

Additionally, Ms. Edwards’ presence in the regular primary race, though she is unlikely to prove victorious, may carry enough political strength to deny either Rep. Green or Rep-Elect Menefee an outright majority on March 3. Therefore, the top two finishers, likely Green and Menefee, would then advance to a May 26 runoff election.

The March 3 Texas primary will be busy. In addition to the competitive District 18 campaign, ten Texas US House seats are open, each featuring hot primary elections. 

Sen. John Cornyn (R) is in a dogfight for renomination against Attorney General Ken Paxton and US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Additionally, Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking renomination for a fourth term as Governor.  Should he be elected and serve most of the ensuing term, Mr. Abbott will become the longest-serving Governor in Texas history.

On the Democratic side, we also see a hotly contested US Senate nomination race. There, US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) are battling for the right to face the eventual GOP nominee in November. 

Polls are inconsistent so far in this campaign. In December, Texas Southern University fielded their survey (12/9-11; 1,600 TX likely Democratic primary voters) and found Rep. Crockett leading Mr. Talarico, 51-43%. A month later, Emerson College (1/10-12; 413 TX likely Democratic primary voters) saw Mr. Talarico surging into a 47-38% advantage. 

HIT Strategies countered with their study taken largely within the same time frame as Emerson College, but with a larger polling sample (1/6-15; 1,005 TX likely Democratic primary voters). This ballot test result posted Ms. Crockett to a reverse double-digit lead, 46-33%. Finally, Slingshot Strategies released their January survey, also with a large sample (1/14-21; 1,290 TX likely Democratic primary voters), and found the candidates virtually tied with Crockett posting only a one-point, 38-37% edge.

As you can see, we can count on seeing a big Lone Star State primary night on March 3, now only a month away.