SENATE
Iowa
In her two previous victorious Iowa US Senate races Republican Joni Ernst defied the aggregate polling universe, and a new Public Policy Polling survey of the 2026 campaign suggests we may see this familiar pattern repeat. As a whole in both 2014 and 2020, the pollster universe underestimated Ms. Ernst’s political strength and miscast her campaigns as being too close to call when they weren’t.
The new PPP Iowa poll (8/18-19; 572 IA registered voters; live interview and text) finds Sen. Ernst with only toss-up leads over a series of largely unknown, from a statewide perspective, Democratic candidates. While the early 2025 Public Policy Polling survey again depicts Sen. Ernst in a potentially close race, such is nothing new for her Iowa Senate campaigns. If polling history is any indication, the end result will likely tell a much different story.
Kansas
Immigration attorney Anne Parelkar (D) announced during the week that she will challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year. Ms. Parelkar joins two other Democrats in the primary, including former USDA official Christy Davis. Sen. Marshall is a prohibitive favorite to win a second term in 2026.
Maine
Gov. Janet Mills (D) may be closer to challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R) than previously indicated. Gov. Mills is not ruling out making the challenge, now saying she will decide at some point in November. The Democratic leadership has been making an all-out effort to recruit Gov. Mills despite the fact that she would be 79 years of age upon taking the oath of office as a freshman Senator.
Ohio
Emerson College conducted a new statewide Ohio poll (8/18-19; 1,000 OH registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) leading former US Senator Sherrod Brown (D), 50-44%. Mr. Brown was defeated in 2024 when attempting to win a fourth US Senate term. His comeback will be uphill. Despite losing last November, he garnered more votes in his loss than he did in his previous 2018 win, which is an indication as to how far right Ohio has swung during the succeeding six-year period.
Texas
In the Texas Senate race, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is challenging Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, released the results of his latest internal online Echelon Insights poll (8/21-24; 515 TX likely Republican primary voters; online) that post him to a 42-37% lead over the incumbent.
A Texas Southern University poll (8/6-12; 1,500 TX likely Republican primary voters; online & text) that also tested US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) finds AG Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt, 35-30-22%. There is no further word as to whether the Congressman will enter the Senate race.
While Paxton averaged a 16-point lead over Sen. Cornyn from the first dozen publicly released polls, the latest data definitely shows Cornyn making a strong comeback. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 3.
HOUSE
AL-1
State Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise), who succeeded US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in the state legislature, now wants to follow suit in the US House. Mr. Moore is a new US Senate candidate. Mr. Marques will be first tasked with winning the Republican nomination opposite former Congressman Jerry Carl who is attempting a political comeback.
CT-1
State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) became the fourth Democrat to launch a primary challenge against veteran US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Ms. Gilchrest joins former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, Hartford School Board Member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry in a primary challenge race that has become very serious. Rep. Larson, who is battling health issues, has not yet confirmed that he will seek re-election to a 15th term.
Florida
The special legislative committee constructed to draw a new congressional map is meeting and developing a proposed plan. The legislative leadership says the committee product, should the members develop a final version, will be addressed when the legislature convenes on January 6, 2026. The Florida candidate filing deadline is April 24th for an August 18th plurality primary election.
GA-13
Reality show personality Heavenly Kimes (D) became the ninth Democrat to launch a primary challenge against Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). The three leading candidates appear to be veteran state Senator Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) and ex-Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair. The Congressman has yet to officially declare for re-election.
KS-2
Veterinarian and West Point graduate Don Coover (D) becomes the first Democrat to launch a challenge to freshman US Representative and former Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R-Independence/Topeka). Mr. Schmidt was also the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee.
MI-7
Climate activist William Lawrence became the seventh Democrat to enter the party primary with the eventual winner challenging freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing). The 7th District was the only open seat to switch parties in the 2024 election. The 2026 campaign will also be a toss-up contest.
NJ-11
Former US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) is reportedly organizing a Super PAC for a potential special election campaign to replace US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) if she is elected Governor in November. Rep. Malinowski represented the 7th District for two terms until losing to current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in 2022. Part of Mr. Malinowski’s original 7th CD is in the current 11th District.
PA-7
Pennsylvania firefighters’ union president Bob Brooks becomes the fifth Democrat to compete for the party nomination to challenge freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown). The toss-up PA-7 race will be one of the top campaigns in the country to decide the next House majority.
SC-5
South Carolina US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who is leaving the House to run for Governor, has endorsed state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill) as his successor. At this point, Sen. Climer has the opportunity of becoming a consensus candidate in a Republican open seat. No other major Republican has yet stepped forward even though Rep. Norman announced his gubernatorial campaign in late July.
TX-21
Former New York Yankees and Texas Rangers star baseball player Mark Teixeira (R) announced his congressional candidacy for the seat that Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) is vacating. Other potential Republican candidates are Federal Election Commissioner Trey Trainor and State Republican Executive Committee member Michael Gleeson. The eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the open general election.
TX-33
US Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who loses his Ft. Worth base but could run in a new 33rd District that is fully contained in Dallas County, indicates he may instead run statewide or for a local office in Ft. Worth’s Tarrant County. The move would then give freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas) a winnable place to run meaning she would not challenge Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving) in District 24.
TX-34
Former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) who earlier in the year indicated she was moving to the 28th District to challenge Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) is now returning to the Brownsville anchored district to again oppose Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen). With the Republican partisan lean substantially increased in TX-34, Ms. Flores’ move back to this CD makes a great deal of political sense. In 2024, the two battled to a 51-49% Gonzalez tight victory.
TX-37
While veteran US Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) says he will retire rather than face a paired Democratic primary campaign against Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) under the new Texas map, another key Austin political figure has no such trepidation. State Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (D-Austin) confirms that she is considering entering the 37th District primary, an area where Rep. Casar only represents 32% of the new constituency.
Utah
A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as eleven states.
A Utah judge early this week issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members constructed a congressional map in 2021 that the state legislature rejected and replaced with the current plan.
The Commission map would likely cost the Republicans one seat since it created a Salt Lake City anchored district that would presumably elect a Democrat. Like many redistricting battles, this one, too, has the potential of making its way to the US Supreme Court for a final decision.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
Appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) is scheduled to soon resign from his position in order to enter the Republican primary for Governor. With former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) expected to become a gubernatorial candidate and leading in early polling, Republicans will need a strong candidate in order to hold the Alaska State House. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
California
We may see a new entry into the California Governor’s race. Democratic US Sen. Alex Padilla is indicating that he is considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate. The Senator says he will not decide until the special redistricting election concludes in November. Currently, former Congresswoman Katie Porter appears to be the leading candidate.
Gov. Gavin Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Mr. Padilla run for Governor, he would be the fourth Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.
Ohio
The aforementioned Emerson College statewide Ohio poll (8/18-19; 1,000 OH registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) [see Ohio Senate above] also posts businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, the officially endorsed Republican Party candidate, leading former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D) 49-39% and former Congressman Tim Ryan (D) 49-41%. Last week, Mr. Ryan said he would make a decision about entering the Governor’s race in September.
Virginia
A new coefficient polling firm survey (8/23-26; 1,025 VA likely voters) again finds former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R). This time the margin is again a relatively close 48-43 percent. Incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to run for a second term. Virginia is the only state that limits its Governors to just one term in office.
STATE AND LOCAL
Iowa State Senate
For the second time this year, a Democratic candidate won a state Senate special election in what should be a Republican district. Catelin Drey defeated her Republican opponent by a ten point margin in a district where President Trump scored an 11-point victory. This is another example of Republican underperformance in 2025 special elections.
New Orleans
A Faucheux Strategies survey (polling for WWL-TV Louisiana; 8/8-14; 600 New Orleans registered voters) projects Democratic City Councilwoman Helena Moreno holding a major lead over the field vying to replace term-limited Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the data, Ms. Moreno holds a 47-18-16% advantage over state Sen. Royce Duplessis (D) and City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for October 11.
